CAMBIO CLIMATICO

PRIMERA COMUNICACIÓN NACIONAL
throughout the 21st century, but these changes
will depend strongly on foreseeable climate
changes. The two most contrasting scenarios
are those associated with the CSIRO TR and
HadCM2 models.
In the scenario associated with the CSIRO model
for the year 2050, taking into account the CO 2
fertilization effect at its maximum expected value
(BETA = 0.7), the productivity grows to 21.2% in
the zone of current maximum values. However, it
should be noted that in the zones of lower productivity,
the impact of climate change does not
change the current situation appreciably.
The scenario corresponding to the HadCM2
model for 2050 represents a drastic decrease in
productivity and the end of Dominican forests in
the second half of the 21st century. Attention
should be focused on the fact that this disappearance
of the forests is very different from that
predicted by ecologists, environmentalists, and
scholars of biodiversity as a result of the direct
action of man (land use, intense exploitation,
acid rain and other factors.) The difference lies
in the fact that in this case we are dealing with
the total disappearance of those climate conditions
that allow for the potential existence of the
forest. This impact could not be avoided by the
usual conservation and protection measures
that cannot protect the forests from the change
in climatic conditions.
The short-term disappearance of the climatic
conditions that allow for the existence of
Dominican forests, which is equal to drastic
changes in the current Holdridge’s Life Zones,
will not be enough time for the current species to
migrate to new areas with more favorable conditions.
This will be aggravated by the current
fragmentation of the habitat of the ecosystems,
as the potential favorable areas may already be
occupied by anthropic systems and by the insularity
of the Dominican Republic.
Therefore, we should expect in this last scenario
a massive mortality of the forests in their current
locations. This phenomenon, which is referred to
as “dieback” in the international literature, has
been analyzed by other researchers in relation to
the tropical and Amazonian forests using scenarios
created with the HadCM2 model (UKMO,
1998). This massive mortality will lead to
increased CO 2 emissions that will accelerate and
intensify climate change at levels not yet contemplated
in the scenarios.
1.4.3.b) Agricultural Crops
Regarding crops, included are those of temperate
climate and a C3 photosynthetic cycle, such as the
potato, which has an unlimited growth period,
warm climate crops with a C3 photosynthetic
cycle, such as rice, and those warm climate crops
with a C4 photosynthetic cycle, such as corn.
These last two have a limited growth period.
All of these were evaluated both with and without
taking into account the CO 2 fertilization
effect. The impact parameters used were the
potential yield of irrigated lands, the water consumption
required to achieve these yields, the
time required for flowering in the case of rice
and corn, and for the appearance of tubers in the
case of potatoes. However, the results are more
impacting in the case of the scenarios associated
with the HadCM2 model, since in the second half
of the next century it will no longer be possible
to grow potatoes in the Dominican Republic.
Adaptation to climate change can affect the cultivated
area, specific management technology, individual
sector of impact, geographical area or
nation. In general, adaptation can be achieved
only through the application of a series of measures,
and not by one isolated measure. It is our
view that climate change adaptation, as well as
that of mitigation, is a problem of global character.
The adaptation policies in this sector recommend
taking into account the development process of
the current globalization of the world economy,
since not doing so could lead to (socioeconomic)
disasters of still greater relevance than even the
direct impact of climate change. Furthermore, it
should not be expected that simple adaptation
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