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CAMBIO CLIMATICO

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PRIMERA COMUNICACIÓN NACIONAL<br />

The adaptation measures in this sector should<br />

be in the form of specific actions at project,<br />

basin, or region levels, in order to efficiently<br />

respond to the particularities of the systems for<br />

which they are conceived. Also admissible are<br />

measures of regional scope in areas such as<br />

planning, as well as methodological or educational<br />

measures. An element to consider in the<br />

adaptation measures analysis is the importance<br />

of the sector in the functioning and development<br />

of the majority of environmental systems, economic<br />

sectors and society. The measures should<br />

be comprehensive, with benefits that will fulfill,<br />

to the greatest extent possible, the expectations<br />

of all the activities that interact with water.<br />

(Planos and Barros, 1999).<br />

Adaptation measures are usually costly, this<br />

being the most sensitive element to consider in<br />

their adoption, especially taking into account<br />

the level of uncertainty that exists in the magnitude<br />

of climate change. However, there are<br />

measures that are economically feasible, as they<br />

are useful from the first moment of application,<br />

and acceptable under any climate conditions.<br />

1.4.2 Coastal Marine Sector<br />

For the purposes of this report, the coastal zone<br />

will be understood as the geographic space that<br />

includes the interactive phase between the ocean<br />

and the land, as well as the interconnections of<br />

the ecosystems that are found in this space and<br />

the different socioeconomic activities directly<br />

related to it. Furthermore, throughout this<br />

report, the term Coastal Marine Zone (CMZ) will<br />

be used as a synonym of the coastal zone (CZ),<br />

to take note of the fact that both the marine and<br />

land areas form a functional unit.<br />

1.4.2.a) Sea-Level Rise<br />

The most obvious impact when one thinks of a<br />

rise in sea level is precisely the submersion of<br />

the lower coasts that will become totally covered.<br />

This coverage can have different implications<br />

according to the type of coast and the<br />

ecosystems that are developed, but it will be particularly<br />

impacting on those emerged coastal<br />

ecosystems where the influence of the dynamic<br />

factors such as tides and swells – that will<br />

inevitably be altered – have a more direct effect<br />

on its development. With a moderate rise in sea<br />

level, the impact, therefore, can be gradual and<br />

compensated by the evolution of the natural systems<br />

in so far as these can exhibit a high tolerance<br />

to the changing environment. However,<br />

with a higher temperature and a rapid rise, the<br />

impact can be catastrophic and can seriously<br />

alter the coastal morphology.<br />

The climatic scenarios of sea level rise that are<br />

used in the present report correspond to the<br />

global trend identified by the IPCC through the<br />

IS92 a-f scenarios.<br />

These sea-level rises, according to the specified<br />

scenarios, imply different annual rates of increment,<br />

which range from 0.12 to 0.14 cm/year for<br />

the IS92c, from 0.38 to 0.65 cm/year for the<br />

IS92a, and from 0.66 to 1.17 cm/year for the<br />

IS92f. It should be noted that in addition to the<br />

sea-level rise, it seems that an increase in the<br />

rate at which this occurs is also expected.<br />

1.4.2.b) Increase in Temperature<br />

For the definition of increased temperature<br />

scenarios, the series from 1961 to 1990 was<br />

used, for ten coastal provinces. Considering<br />

the results of the SCENGEN Model that subdivides<br />

the country into two cells and the differences<br />

that exist in the thermal pattern of the<br />

coast and the sea in the Atlantic and Caribbean<br />

slopes, four areas were differentiated in the<br />

interest of analyzing the effect of temperature<br />

on the coastal zone.<br />

Regarding the average values, the increments in<br />

the surface temperature of the water in the coastal<br />

zone indicate a difference DT (DT = Tpresent –<br />

Tperiod indicated), on the order of 2.144, 1.843,<br />

1.879, and 0.987 degrees C, for the areas of the<br />

Atlantic and Caribbean slopes, respectively, for the<br />

year 2100. This means that for a mid scenario, the<br />

temperature of the coastal water would range, on<br />

45

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