Krasnodar GRES Project Volume I11 Environmental Assessment

urn agricultural wastes for fuel, this power is only available seasonally and has
resulted in an effective available thermal capacity of 6,597 MW. The maximum
effective capacity, wet season, of the hydro units in the North Caucasus is 1,969
MW as some of these units have also been de-rated, and the available hydro
capacity during the winter months is 1,790 MW. This results in an overall
effective system capacity of 8,387 MW during winter, which is when peak
loading occurs.
Peak demand in the year 2000 is estimated to be 9,212 MW which results in a
required capacity of 10,502 MW to meet a 14% system reserve margin. Thus
there is an estimated energy deficit of 2,115 MW expected in the year 2000. It is
also anticipated that this deficit will increase as older plants retire, have more
frequent shut-downs due to equipment age, and the demand for electricity
increases. Thus the frequency of electrical shortages and disruptions, brown-outs
and black-outs, will increase, particularly in the Krasnodar Krai due its power
deficit and need to import energy.
The Krasnodar Krai has the greatest local power deficit in the North Caucasus,
and relies on imports from neighboring Energos for approximately 60% of its
electrical consumption. Because the local utility, Kubanenergo, has equipment
that is generally 20 to 40 years old, the deficit will continue to increase as the
aging units become less reliable and must ultimately be retired, and the Krasnodar
Krai will have to import ever increasing amounts of electrical power. To begin to
address this deficit Kubanenergo is planning to install 900 MW of combined cycle
capacity near Mostovskoy, which still leaves an estimated deficit of 1,215 MW.
Other and future plans call for additional 160 MW of hydro capacity, 550 MW of
firm capacity from a 500 kV transmission line to the UPS, and adding 450 MW to
the existing Krasnodar central heating plant. This still leaves a small power
deficit, 55 MW, and the Krasnodar GRES is being designed and built to easily add
an additional 450 MW of generating capacity.
Since the proposed Krasnodar GRES can supply either 43% or 64% of the
estimated power deficit in the North Caucasus, and the Krasnodar Krai has the
largest local power deficit, the plant must be built. If the No Action Alternative
was accepted and the plant was not built, the citizens of the Krasnodar Krai
would not have sufficient electrical power, and power shortages and disruptions
will continue to escalate and lessen the quality of life for the citizens of the
Krasnodar Krai. Thus the No Action Alternative is not a viable option and no
further consideration should be given to its implementation.
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