Market Survey on Copper - Indian Bureau of Mines
Market Survey on Copper - Indian Bureau of Mines Market Survey on Copper - Indian Bureau of Mines
The details of consumption pattern from 2001 to 2010 is given in Table-4.6 and the CAGR calculated on the basis of year to year rise and fall in consumption is given in Table-4.7 Table -4.6: World Refined Consumption of Copper, 2001 to 2010 (000’tonnes) Year World Europe Africa Asia America Oceania 2001 14765.6 4341.8 142.0 6159.5 3861.0 171.3 2002 15052.5 4326.6 148.3 6946.9 3441.3 189.3 2003 15365.5 4278.9 147.1 7304.0 3451.1 184.3 2004 16345.4 4546.2 163.3 7737.4 3729.9 168.6 2005 16638.8 4539.6 194.6 8249.5 3497.6 157.5 2006 17007.0 4995.3 222.4 8338.6 3307.0 143.7 2007 18142.5 4793.3 230.5 9754.4 3216.4 147.9 2008 18152.6 4624.7 334.3 9913.7 3125.9 154.0 2009 18243.0 3578.9 218.4 11668.8 2646.5 130.5 2010 19444.2 4088.4 117.9 12342.1 2793.0 102.9 CAGR% 3.20 (-)0.13 1.78 8.18 (-)3.28 (-)5.04 Table -4.7: Compounded annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Refined Copper Consumption, 2001 to 2010 CAGR (%) World 3.20 Europe (-)0.13 Africa 1.78 Asia 8.18 America (-)3.28 Oceania (-)5.04 It will be seen from the above Table-4.7 that the CAGR in respect of world has been arrived at 3.20% although as per world bank data the GDP growth of the world has been given as 3.3% in 2010, as against (- ) 2.1% in 2009. The CAGR calculated on the basis of consumption of refined copper from 2001to 2010 has been adopted for forecasting the consumption in 2025, the maximum CAGR has been arrived at in respect of Asia at 8.18% mainly driven by higher level of consumption in China, Korea and India where as the lowest CAGR has been arrived at in respect of Africa 1.78% which is the positive sign though most of the African countries are having status of under developed and developing countries. In Europe, America and Oceania most of the countries are in developed categories hence there is a negative CAGR of (-) 0.13%, (-) 3.28 % and (-) 5.04% respectively. On the basis of CAGRs given in Table -4.8 the World Consumption of Refined Copper has been calculated for the years from 2011 to 2025. The same is given at Table-4.9. 84
Table -4.8: Estimated Region wise World Refined Consumption of Copper, 2011 to 2025 (Base year 2010) Year Europe (CAGR- (-) 0.13%) Africa (CAGR- 1.78%) Asia (CAGR- 8.18%) America (CAGR- (-) 3.28%) Oceania (CAGR- (-) 5.04%) (000’tonnes) World Total* 2010 4088.4 117.9 12342.1 2793.0 102.9 19444.3 2011 4083.1 120.0 13351.7 2701.4 97.7 20353.9 2012 4077.8 122.1 14443.9 2612.8 92.8 21349.4 2013 4072.5 124.3 15625.4 2527.1 88.1 22437.4 2014 1067.2 126.5 16903.6 2444.2 83.6 23625.1 2015 4061.9 128.7 18286.3 2364.0 79.4 24920.3 2016 4056.6 131.0 19782.1 2286.5 75.4 26331.6 2017 4051.3 133.3 21400.3 2211.5 71.6 27868.0 2018 4046.0 135.7 23150.8 2139.0 68.0 29539.5 2019 4040.7 138.1 25044.5 2068.8 64.6 31356.7 2020 4035.4 140.6 27093.1 2000.9 61.3 33331.3 2021 4030.1 143.1 29309.3 1935.3 58.2 35476.0 2022 4024.9 145.6 31706.8 1871.8 55.3 37804.4 2023 4019.7 148.2 34300.4 1810.4 54.5 40331.2 2024 4014.5 150.8 37106.2 1751.0 49.8 43072.3 2025 4009.3 153.5 40141.5 1693.6 47.3 46045.2 *On the basis of CAGR of Europe (-)0.13%, Africa 1.78%, Asia 8.18%, America (-)3.28%, Oceania(-)5.04% It will be seen from the Table-4.9 that on the basis of CAGR of 3.20 % for the entire world the consumption of refined copper comes to 31 million tonnes in 2025. However on the basis of CAGRs of different areas, the total consumption of refined copper comes to 46 million tonnes. There is a difference of 15 million tonnes which is mainly due to the negative CAGR in respect of Europe, America and Oceania as well as robust positive growth in Asia supported by Africa. Therefore, the overall CAGR of 3.20% calculated in respect of world seems to be more realistic as it is also supported by overall world’s GDP growth of 3.3% in 2010 from (-)2.1% in 2009 and further forecast of 3.3% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012 by World Bank . As far as the area-wise analysis in concerned, the CAGR of (-) 0.13% in Europe is given an indication that the copper consumption is nearing saturation in the developing countries and in 2025, the refined copper consumption will be 4 million tonnes and the consumption of refined copper during 2025 in America will be 1.7 million tonnes calculated on the basis of CAGR (-) 3.28%. The CAGR in respect of Oceania has been calculated at (-) 5.04% and the consumption of refined copper has been calculated at 0.047 million tonnes. The positive CAGR of 8.18% estimated in respect of Asia is mainly due to increased consumption in China, Korea and India, hence the world consumption of 85
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Table -4.8: Estimated Regi<strong>on</strong> wise World Refined C<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Copper</strong>,<br />
2011 to 2025 (Base year 2010)<br />
Year Europe<br />
(CAGR-<br />
(-) 0.13%)<br />
Africa<br />
(CAGR-<br />
1.78%)<br />
Asia<br />
(CAGR-<br />
8.18%)<br />
America<br />
(CAGR-<br />
(-) 3.28%)<br />
Oceania<br />
(CAGR-<br />
(-) 5.04%)<br />
(000’t<strong>on</strong>nes)<br />
World<br />
Total*<br />
2010 4088.4 117.9 12342.1 2793.0 102.9 19444.3<br />
2011 4083.1 120.0 13351.7 2701.4 97.7 20353.9<br />
2012 4077.8 122.1 14443.9 2612.8 92.8 21349.4<br />
2013 4072.5 124.3 15625.4 2527.1 88.1 22437.4<br />
2014 1067.2 126.5 16903.6 2444.2 83.6 23625.1<br />
2015 4061.9 128.7 18286.3 2364.0 79.4 24920.3<br />
2016 4056.6 131.0 19782.1 2286.5 75.4 26331.6<br />
2017 4051.3 133.3 21400.3 2211.5 71.6 27868.0<br />
2018 4046.0 135.7 23150.8 2139.0 68.0 29539.5<br />
2019 4040.7 138.1 25044.5 2068.8 64.6 31356.7<br />
2020 4035.4 140.6 27093.1 2000.9 61.3 33331.3<br />
2021 4030.1 143.1 29309.3 1935.3 58.2 35476.0<br />
2022 4024.9 145.6 31706.8 1871.8 55.3 37804.4<br />
2023 4019.7 148.2 34300.4 1810.4 54.5 40331.2<br />
2024 4014.5 150.8 37106.2 1751.0 49.8 43072.3<br />
2025 4009.3 153.5 40141.5 1693.6 47.3 46045.2<br />
*On the basis <strong>of</strong> CAGR <strong>of</strong> Europe (-)0.13%, Africa 1.78%, Asia 8.18%, America (-)3.28%, Oceania(-)5.04%<br />
It will be seen from the Table-4.9 that <strong>on</strong> the basis <strong>of</strong> CAGR <strong>of</strong> 3.20 % for the<br />
entire world the c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> refined copper comes to 31 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>nes in 2025.<br />
However <strong>on</strong> the basis <strong>of</strong> CAGRs <strong>of</strong> different areas, the total c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> refined<br />
copper comes to 46 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>nes. There is a difference <strong>of</strong> 15 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>nes which<br />
is mainly due to the negative CAGR in respect <strong>of</strong> Europe, America and Oceania as<br />
well as robust positive growth in Asia supported by Africa.<br />
Therefore, the overall CAGR <strong>of</strong> 3.20% calculated in respect <strong>of</strong> world seems to<br />
be more realistic as it is also supported by overall world’s GDP growth <strong>of</strong> 3.3% in<br />
2010 from (-)2.1% in 2009 and further forecast <strong>of</strong> 3.3% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012 by<br />
World Bank .<br />
As far as the area-wise analysis in c<strong>on</strong>cerned, the CAGR <strong>of</strong> (-) 0.13% in Europe<br />
is given an indicati<strong>on</strong> that the copper c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> is nearing saturati<strong>on</strong> in the<br />
developing countries and in 2025, the refined copper c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> will be 4 milli<strong>on</strong><br />
t<strong>on</strong>nes and the c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> refined copper during 2025 in America will be 1.7<br />
milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>nes calculated <strong>on</strong> the basis <strong>of</strong> CAGR (-) 3.28%.<br />
The CAGR in respect <strong>of</strong> Oceania has been calculated at (-) 5.04% and the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong> refined copper has been calculated at 0.047 milli<strong>on</strong> t<strong>on</strong>nes.<br />
The positive CAGR <strong>of</strong> 8.18% estimated in respect <strong>of</strong> Asia is mainly due to<br />
increased c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> in China, Korea and India, hence the world c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
85
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