Oberoi Realty Premium play - The Smart Investor
Oberoi Realty Premium play - The Smart Investor
Oberoi Realty Premium play - The Smart Investor
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
High High quality quality<br />
land land bank bank<br />
Integrated Integrated<br />
development<br />
development<br />
����� Higher<br />
����� Robust loan<br />
growth<br />
����� Lower credit<br />
cost<br />
productivity<br />
<strong>Premium</strong><br />
brand<br />
����� 33% EPS<br />
CAGR<br />
Siddharth Bothra (SBothra@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5407<br />
Sandipan Pal (Sandipan.Pal @MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5436<br />
Initiating Coverage | SECTOR: REAL ESTATE<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
����� Improved<br />
Strong Strong<br />
monetization<br />
monetization<br />
visibility visibility<br />
RoA, RoE<br />
Multiple<br />
revenue<br />
streams<br />
<strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong>
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong>: <strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong><br />
Page No.<br />
Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong> ................................................................4-11<br />
Strong monetization visibility.......................................................................... 12-15<br />
ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13 .................................... 16-17<br />
Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger for the stock ...........18<br />
Key headwinds ................................................................................................ 19-21<br />
Valuation and view .......................................................................................... 22-26<br />
Background............................................................................................................27<br />
Annexure-I: Project location .......................................................................... 28-31<br />
Financials and valuation ................................................................................. 32-33<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
2
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX BLOOMBERG REUTERS<br />
17,729 5,310 OBER IN OEBO.BO<br />
Y/E MARCH 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />
Net Sales (Rs b) 7.8 10.4 13.9 24.4<br />
EBITDA (Rs b) 4.7 6.0 8.0 15.6<br />
NP (Rs b) 4.6 5.2 6.5 11.3<br />
EPS (Rs) 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6<br />
EPS Growth (%) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />
BV/Share (Rs) 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9<br />
P/E (x) 16.1 14.3 11.4 6.5<br />
P/BV (x) 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5<br />
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 9.7 7.2 3.3<br />
EV/ Sales (x) 9.0 5.6 4.1 2.1<br />
RoE (%) 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4<br />
RoCE (%) 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1<br />
KEY FINANCIALS<br />
Shares Outstanding (m) 328.2<br />
Market Cap (Rs b) 73.9<br />
Market Cap (US$ b) 1.6<br />
Past 3 yrs. Sales Growth (%) 34.5<br />
Past 3 yrs. NP Growth (%) 79.5<br />
Dividend Payout (%) 7.0<br />
Dividend Yield (%) 0.3<br />
STOCK DATA<br />
16-W High/Low Range (Rs) 307/220<br />
Major Shareholders (as of December 2010) (%)<br />
Promoters 78.5<br />
Foreign 9.4<br />
Institutions 1.0<br />
Others 11.1<br />
Average Daily Turnover<br />
Volume ('000 shares) 1,397.3<br />
Value (Rs million) 400.4<br />
1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%) 0/-/-<br />
1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%) -8/-/-<br />
STOCK PERFORMANCE (SINCE 19 OCTOBER 2010)<br />
320<br />
290<br />
260<br />
230<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Sensex - Rebased<br />
200<br />
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11<br />
<strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong><br />
SECTOR: REAL ESTATE<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Rs225 Buy<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> (ORL) is a Mumbai-focused real estate developer. It enjoys<br />
high brand equity and is able to command premium pricing across<br />
product segments. This coupled with low-cost land bank, sound<br />
financials, and high cash flow visibility make it an attractive <strong>play</strong> on the<br />
Mumbai market. <strong>The</strong> stock trades at 27% discount to FY12E NAV of Rs310.<br />
Buy for 38% upside.<br />
Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong>: ORL has ~21.4msf of fullypaid<br />
land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format<br />
integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market<br />
due to its (1) diversified products, (2) superior product quality and (3)<br />
management goodwill, which enable it to command a pricing premium<br />
over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low cost land<br />
parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai.<br />
High visibility on land bank monetization: Most of ORL's RE<br />
projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook<br />
is buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully<br />
monetize its land bank over 6-7 years as its healthy cash position and<br />
hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This provides high cash<br />
flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL<br />
enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it<br />
from vagaries of the RE cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash<br />
balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge opportunity to further<br />
acquire value-augmenting projects.<br />
Triggers and headwinds to the stock: Key triggers: (1) Prudent<br />
use of surplus cash to augment land bank, (2) Broad-based recovery<br />
in commercial and retail markets, and (3) Resolution of pending issues<br />
(e.g. hotel properties in Juhu). Possible headwinds: (1) Land acquisition<br />
challenges due to high cost of land in Mumbai, and (2) Possible hurdles<br />
in JDA/SRA-linked projects.<br />
Stock at 27% discount to FY12E NAV; Buy: We expect ORL to post<br />
35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13. We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at<br />
Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on NPV-based<br />
valuation of its land bank. ORL stock is attractively valued at 11.4x<br />
FY12E EPS of Rs19.8, 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6 and ~27% discount<br />
to FY12E NAV. We expect ORL to trade at least at par to NAV due to<br />
(1) premium brand equity, (2) strong near term cash flow visibility, and<br />
(3) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash. Buy with a target<br />
price of Rs310, 38% upside from current levels.<br />
3
Mumbai is the most resilient<br />
RE market in India in terms<br />
of returns on investment<br />
Medium to long term macro<br />
outlook for Mumbai RE to be<br />
buoyant for products with an<br />
attractive value proposition<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
ORL has ~21.4msf of fully-paid land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format<br />
integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market due to its (1) diversified<br />
products, (2) superior product quality and (3) management goodwill, which enable it to<br />
command a pricing premium over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low<br />
cost land parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai.<br />
Mumbai, the most resilient RE market<br />
Mumbai is the most resilient and rewarding RE market in India in terms of returns on<br />
investment, product positioning and depth of demand for RE development across segments<br />
and price points. After the global downturn, the Mumbai market was at the forefront of<br />
recovery. With steady demand, starting with affordable housing and eventually moving to<br />
the luxury housing vertical, property prices have not only rebounded, but surpassed the<br />
pre-downturn peaks in several micro-markets.<br />
However, the recent sharp price appreciation and a bloated supply pipeline has resulted in<br />
a cyclical downturn in key locations, particularly Central Mumbai. Still, we expect the<br />
medium to long term macro outlook for Mumbai RE to be buoyant for products with<br />
attractive value proposition. This is because Mumbai's fundamental growth catalysts remain<br />
unaltered:<br />
� Strong GDP growth, rapid urbanization and improving affordability<br />
� Mumbai's status as India's financial capital (contributing more than 5% of GDP)<br />
� Favorable demography with an expanding segment of young, upwardly mobile<br />
professionals<br />
� A large base of discerning, high-income customers.<br />
Mumbai - a lucrative RE market with superior return potential<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
4
Hyderabad<br />
8%<br />
Chennai<br />
6%<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Between october-10 to September-11, Mumbai contributed ~25% of India's RE volume<br />
(number of units) and ~29% of RE capital value of top 7 cities of India.<br />
City-wise sale value (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11 City-wise absorption volume (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11<br />
Bangalore<br />
13%<br />
Pune<br />
12%<br />
NCR<br />
32%<br />
Mumbai<br />
29%<br />
Chennai<br />
6%<br />
Hyderabad<br />
4%<br />
Bangalore<br />
12%<br />
Pune<br />
18%<br />
NCR<br />
35%<br />
Mumbai<br />
25%<br />
ORL: An attractive Mumbai <strong>play</strong><br />
We believe ORL offers an attractive <strong>play</strong> on the lucrative Mumbai RE opportunity given<br />
its following favorable factors:<br />
#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai<br />
#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill<br />
#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins<br />
#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further.<br />
#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai<br />
Almost 94% of ORL's saleable area (~21.4msf) is in Mumbai with ~69% of its land bank<br />
located in prime locations in the western suburbs. Along with prime locations and synergies<br />
from integrated and a diversified product-mix, ORL's emphasis on contemporary design<br />
and quality construction helps it to enjoy premium value for its development. We believe<br />
ORL is well placed to benefit from the superior return potential of Mumbai market.<br />
94% of ORL's land bank is concentrated in Mumbai ORL's products straddle diverse segments<br />
Central<br />
Suburbs<br />
15%<br />
Island City<br />
10%<br />
Pune<br />
6%<br />
Western<br />
Suburbs<br />
69%<br />
Hospitality<br />
9%<br />
Retail<br />
4%<br />
Commercial<br />
20%<br />
Social infra<br />
9%<br />
Source: Liases Foras/MOSL<br />
Residential<br />
58%<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
5
ORL has a proven track<br />
record and rich experience<br />
in the Mumbai RE market<br />
A strong management track<br />
record and transparent<br />
corporate structure make<br />
ORL a preferred developer<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill<br />
ORL's promoters have a proven track record and rich experience in the Mumbai RE<br />
market, having delivered ~5msf of RE development in 33 projects over the past three<br />
decades. During the past couple of years alone, ORL delivered 2.2msf, indicating robust<br />
traction in execution.<br />
Key projects delivered by ORL<br />
Projects Location Type Year of delivery Area (msf)<br />
Plazo (Ghuman Villa) Juhu Residential Sep-01 0.02<br />
Rehabilitation Project Goregaon Residential May-02 0.06<br />
Beachwood House Juhu Residential Jan-05 0.03<br />
Crest Khar Residential May-06 0.02<br />
Seawind Juhu Residential Oct-06 0.02<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods Goregaon Residential May-08 0.60<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Springs Andheri Residential Jan-10 0.64<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Townhouse Goregaon Residential Jun-10 0.04<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Chambers Andheri Commercial May-04 0.09<br />
Commerz - I Goregaon Commercial Mar-08 0.40<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Goregaon Retail Mar-08 0.55<br />
<strong>The</strong> Westin Goregaon Hotel Apr-10 0.38<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> International School Goregaon School Nov-10 0.31<br />
Total 3.16<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
ORL's integrated development and superior product positioning have given it a strong<br />
brand image. We believe ORL is well placed to capitalize the trend of customer preference<br />
for (1) integrated development, (2) quality construction and (3) goodwill of the developer.<br />
This explains why ORL has been consistently booking sales of ~455 units a year over the<br />
past five financial years.<br />
Strong management goodwill<br />
Lack of transparency and corporate governance issues are key concerns in the RE sector.<br />
We believe ORL is favorably placed in this regard given (a) transparency in land acquisition,<br />
(b) uncomplicated corporate structure and (c) developer mindset.<br />
(a) Transparency in land acquisition: <strong>The</strong> ORL management has demonstrated a prudent<br />
and transparent approach in acquiring its land. ORL has acquired ~140 acres across five<br />
projects since 1998. All the land parcels (a) are fully paid for, (b) have clear titles, and<br />
(c) enjoy transparent cost and ownership disclosures.<br />
(b) Uncomplicated corporate structure: ORL has a simple corporate structure with<br />
most of its land holding through wholly owned subsidiaries. We believe this transparent<br />
structure augurs well for better corporate governance.<br />
(c) Developer mindset: ORL has a relatively limited but high quality land bank, expected<br />
to get monetized over 6-7 years. Over the past 3-4 years, ORL focused on converting its<br />
land parcels into landmark developments instead of augmenting its land bank at unreasonable<br />
prices. We believe such a development mindset is reflected in its product quality and<br />
premium brand equity, which differentiates the company from the rest.<br />
6
� ORL holds the Garden City<br />
projects excluding<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />
� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Private Ltd<br />
holds <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />
� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Constructions<br />
Private Ltd holds Andheri<br />
and Mulund properties.<br />
� Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> holds the<br />
Worli properties.<br />
� Siddhivinayak Realties<br />
Private Ltd holds the<br />
disputed Juhu Hotel.<br />
� Sangam City Township<br />
Private Ltd, a JV between<br />
ORL, DB <strong>Realty</strong> and the<br />
Avinash Bhosale group,<br />
holds the Pune project.<br />
Outsourcing non-core<br />
activities to reputed partners<br />
releases management<br />
bandwidth for core activities<br />
ORL’s average<br />
acquisition cost of land<br />
has been only ~Rs35m/acre<br />
11 February 2011<br />
ORL's corporate structure<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Construction<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Siddhivinayak<br />
Realties<br />
Private Ltd<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Kingston<br />
Property<br />
Services<br />
Private Ltd<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Limited<br />
Sangam City<br />
Township<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Kingston<br />
Hospitality<br />
& Developers<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Expression<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Private Ltd<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100%<br />
50% 100%<br />
Perspective<br />
Realties<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Oasis<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Unincorporated<br />
Unincorporated JV<br />
JV<br />
Zaco<br />
Aviation<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Low execution risk: ORL outsources most of its key projects, delegates non-core activities<br />
such as design and construction to long-term service providers. ORL has developed a<br />
strong relationship with internationally acclaimed architects like SCDA (Singapore), Bentel<br />
& Associates (South Africa), HOK (Los Angeles), and domestic contractors like L&T.<br />
We believe its outsourcing model mitigates the execution risk involved in large format<br />
projects and leaves its management free to pursue activities such as land acquisition and<br />
sales and marketing.<br />
#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins<br />
ORL's management has been prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Over 1998-2005,<br />
ORL acquired four key land parcels for Rs4.7b: (1) ~84 acres at Goregaon Garden City,<br />
(2) ~24 acres for Andheri East Splendor, (3) ~7 acres for Andheri-West Springs and (4)<br />
~19 acres in Mulund. Its average acquisition cost of these city-centric land parcels has<br />
been ~Rs35m/acre. After 2005, Mumbai's land prices went through a strong up-cycle,<br />
impacting margins of most RE developers involved in land acquisition through the direct<br />
route. However, ORL is strongly placed with a low cost land bank that has monetization<br />
potential over the next 6-7 years.<br />
Low cost historical land bank<br />
Particulars Garden City, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Springs,<br />
Goregaon Andheri Mulund Andheri (W)<br />
Land area (acres) 84 24 19 7<br />
Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 317<br />
Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2005<br />
Cost of inherent FSI* (Rs/sf) 292 994 2,695 1,039<br />
* Doesn’t include benefit from incremental FSI from TDR, parking scheme and loading<br />
Triumph<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Private Ltd<br />
After 2005 ORL has not acquired land through the direct route but adopted a different<br />
approach to augment its land bank. In 2007, it entered into a joint development agreement<br />
(JDA) with a local developer (Sahana Developer) to develop the saleable area of a slum<br />
7
Land acquisition<br />
through the JDA/JV route<br />
renders opportunity to<br />
leverage on the brand<br />
Low land cost is attributable<br />
to historical acquisition<br />
over 1998-2005<br />
ORL is expected to post<br />
45-80% operating margins<br />
for its Mumbai-centric land,<br />
resulting in superior RoE<br />
Large integrated projects<br />
offer a superior product mix<br />
and product synergy<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
rehabilitation project in Worli. <strong>The</strong> project offers ORL a lucrative proposition, since (1)<br />
ORL will have a 25-40% share in net revenue (net of construction and S&M costs)<br />
depending on actual realization of the project, (2) ORL hasn't incurred upfront capital<br />
expenditure (only a Rs3b refundable deposit, to be adjusted against revenue share), (3)<br />
the JDA partner is responsible for related SRA activities such as evacuation and<br />
rehabilitation construction (a significant portion of the work has been completed).<br />
In such an agreement, even in the most pessimistic scenario, ORL stands to profit. <strong>The</strong><br />
agreement allows ORL to leverage its brand strength with minimal upfront capital<br />
investment and low operational and market risks. We expect ORL to clinch many such<br />
deals with similarly attractive propositions due to (1) its strong execution track-record and<br />
(2) premium branding, which make it a preferred partner for small and unorganised land<br />
owners.<br />
Low cost land parcels ensure superior margins<br />
ORL's existing land bank of 21.4msf (~130 acres) is located in Mumbai (western suburbs,<br />
Central Mumbai) and Pune, and is suitable for large format development. ORL has<br />
purchased land outright for most of its projects. We believe the management has been<br />
prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Except for Pune (which is still in the land aggregation<br />
stage) and Worli (where ORL has entered into a JDA), the remaining land parcels have<br />
been acquired over 1998-2005, at very lucrative prices. Large low-cost land parcels with<br />
extended monetization, and a huge appreciation of property prices over the past five years<br />
provide ORL with an opportunity to command superior profit margins in such projects.<br />
ORL's superior margins<br />
Particulars Garden City, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica, Oasis <strong>Realty</strong>,<br />
Goregaon Andheri Mulund Worli<br />
Mode of land acquisition Outright Purchase Outright Purchase Outright Purchase JDA<br />
Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2007<br />
Land area (acres) 84 24 19 3<br />
Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 Nil<br />
Saleable area (msf) 11.2 3.1 3.2 2.1<br />
ORL's stake (%) 100 100 100 25-40*<br />
Land cost (Rs/sf) 95.6 341.9 691 NIL<br />
Avg. construction cost (Rs/sf)<br />
Other development costs (Rs/sf)<br />
3,500 3,500 3,000 6,000<br />
(Approvals/TDR/ Parking etc) 1,500 1,500 1,000 NIL<br />
Avg. Market price (Rs/sf) 9,500 10,500 7,500 28,000<br />
ORL's premium pricing (Rs/sf) 11,000 12,000 8,500 32,000<br />
ORL's margin (Rs/sf) 5,904 6,658 3,809 26,000<br />
ORL's margin (%) 54 55 45 81<br />
* Profit sharing ratio depending on sale realization Source: Company/MOSL<br />
#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further<br />
ORL is one of the few integrated development <strong>play</strong>ers in Mumbai. Integrated development<br />
offers product synergies and pricing premuim, boosting margins further.<br />
Integrated development offers product synergies...<br />
Most of the ORL's land is suitable for large format development and situated in attractive<br />
city-centric locations which are increasingly gaining customers' preference. This helps<br />
ORL to develop large integrated projects with different product mixes such as schools,<br />
8
Value creation through<br />
large format development<br />
enables ORL to command<br />
premium pricing<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Integrated<br />
development<br />
example<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
hospitals, malls and hotels. It allows the company to (1) position its products better, (2)<br />
leverage synergies between different asset classes and command premium pricing, and<br />
(3) capture strong RE demand at different price points in the project cycle.<br />
...and pricing premium<br />
ORL's integrated land development strategy has started paying off. Over the past 2-3<br />
years, after the early phase of developments, ORL has been receiving a strong response<br />
from customers for subsequent phases of monetization. We believe its transformation of a<br />
location from terra incognita to a destination development and synergies between the<br />
product-mixes of integrated development have boosted its brand image. While initial<br />
developments in its Garden City projects like <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall, Commerz and <strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods<br />
have enhanced the image of Goregaon (E) as a preferred micro-market, its projects at<br />
JVLR, Andheri (E) (Splendor) have boosted demand for subsequent phases. Besides, its<br />
superior construction quality, on-time delivery track-record and quality management add<br />
to the value of its developments. All these factors contribute to ORL's premium pricing.<br />
Approach to land banks: creating value through integrated development<br />
Low cost large<br />
land parcel<br />
Uplifting micromarket's<br />
image and<br />
boosting RE demand<br />
Destination development<br />
in early phases<br />
Integrated<br />
projects<br />
Average land acquisition<br />
cost of Garden City<br />
project is ~Rs100/sf<br />
Product<br />
synergy<br />
Brand creation<br />
through superior<br />
offerings<br />
Garden City at Goregaon (E)<br />
emerged as a preferred<br />
destination<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall,<br />
Commerz,<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods<br />
Pricing premium<br />
Average<br />
realization at<br />
Garden City<br />
grew from<br />
Rs2,500/sf (2004)<br />
to Rs12,000/sf<br />
(currently)<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Garden City: Achieves landmark status in Goregaon, Mumbai<br />
A key example of integrated development has been its <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City projects, a<br />
mixed-use development in Goregaon (E), in Mumbai's western suburbs. ORL acquired<br />
~84 acres of land here for Rs1.07b between 1998-05. <strong>The</strong> project has saleable area of<br />
11.2msf of which ORL has already delivered projects on ~2.3msf with the development<br />
of <strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods (residential, 0.7msf), Commerz I (0.4msf), <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall (0.55msf) and<br />
an international school (0.3msf). <strong>The</strong> project, located on the Western Express Highway,<br />
is beside a "no-development" green zone and offers a permanent view of greenery. <strong>The</strong><br />
later phases of development will comprise residential, office/retail space, a hotel and<br />
social infrastructure such as a hospital and a school. Projects on ~5msf are ongoing and<br />
projects are being planned on the remaining 3.9msf. Garden City has achieved a status<br />
of destination project due its attractive location and benefits from integrated offerings.<br />
Consequently, we expect ORL's upcoming developments here to command premium<br />
pricing compared with its peers.<br />
9
Integrated development plan at <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City<br />
Completed<br />
projects<br />
Ongoing<br />
projects<br />
Planned<br />
projects<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Residential<br />
(~6.6msf)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Woods,<br />
Townhouse<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Exquisite<br />
(Phases I and II)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Exquisite<br />
(Phase III)<br />
Integrated layout of <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City project<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />
Commerz<br />
and Hotel<br />
Westin<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Commerz (II)<br />
- Phase (I)<br />
Western Express Highway<br />
Commerz (II) -<br />
Phase (II)<br />
Office Space<br />
(~3msf)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City<br />
Retail<br />
(~0.6msf)<br />
Commerz I <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />
Commerz II<br />
(Phases I and II)<br />
Exquisite- 3<br />
Exquisite- 1<br />
Exquisite- 2<br />
Hosipital<br />
Hospitality<br />
(~0.4msf)<br />
<strong>The</strong> Westin<br />
Mumbai -<br />
Garden City<br />
Town House<br />
Educational<br />
Complex<br />
Social<br />
infrastructure<br />
(~1.6msf)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
International<br />
School<br />
Hospital and<br />
education<br />
complex<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Woods<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
International<br />
School<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
10
Key ongoing projects at Garden City<br />
Commerz (II)- Phase I and Phase II Exquisite- steady progress in construction<br />
Integrated development at Garden City is in an advanced stage of monetization<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Phase II site<br />
Phase I site<br />
� We expect phase I of Commerz-II to be operational by<br />
FY12-13, while phase II is likely to be ready by FY14.<br />
� ORL has already sold ~419 units in Exquisite I. Exquisite-<br />
I is likely to be delivered in FY12-13, while it plans to launch<br />
Exquisite II in 4QFY11.<br />
� We estimate ORL to complete the monetization of Garden<br />
City by FY16-17.<br />
� Once completed, the project is likely to generate ~Rs83b<br />
of total residential sales and ~Rs6b of steady-state annuity<br />
income. Garden City accounts for ~60% of ORL's GAV.<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Town house <strong>Oberoi</strong> International School<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall (March 2008)<br />
Commerz I (March 2008) <strong>Oberoi</strong> Wood (May 2008)<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
11
Hassle free land banks are<br />
suitably placed for faster<br />
monetization<br />
Strong residential sales and<br />
steady annuity income are<br />
expected to generate robust<br />
operating cash flow<br />
11 February 2011<br />
High visibility on land bank monetization<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Most of ORL's RE projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook is<br />
buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully monetize its land bank over 6-<br />
7 years as its healthy cash position and hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This<br />
provides high cash flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL<br />
enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it from vagaries of the RE<br />
cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge<br />
opportunity to further acquire value-augmenting projects.<br />
Hassle-free land bank increases certainty of monetization<br />
We expect RE demand outlook in Mumbai to be buoyant in the medium term, especially<br />
for mid-income housing, attractively positioned products and preferred micro-markets like<br />
the western and central suburbs. This has witness further boost from rising demand for<br />
office space in such locations. About 84% of ORL's saleable area is in attractive citycentric<br />
areas of the western and central suburbs, which have potential to emerge as<br />
destination projects due to their large size and mixed use development. Most of the land is<br />
fully paid and available for development with approvals largely in place, which gives<br />
reasonable certainty to execution. <strong>The</strong>se factors provide ORL with steady cash flow<br />
visibility over five years.<br />
Strong development pipeline to drive monetization<br />
Assets under sale model FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E<br />
Residential (msf) 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1<br />
Commercial (msf) - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1<br />
Retail (msf) - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1<br />
Total 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.3<br />
Leased assets (cumulative)<br />
Commercial (msf) 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.5<br />
Retail (msf) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5<br />
Total 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.0<br />
Hotel (rooms) 269 269 269 269 314 314<br />
High visibility of cash flow (Rs b)<br />
Particulars FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E<br />
Residential sales 11.7 14.3 19.5 23.0 33.8 28.9<br />
Commercial and retail sales 0.0 1.1 2.8 7.2 6.3 1.9<br />
Rental income (commercial and retail) 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.0<br />
Hotel business 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1<br />
Social infrastructure business 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0<br />
Total inflow 13.2 17.4 25.1 34.8 46.1 37.0<br />
% contribution from rental income 12 12 11 13 13 17<br />
% contribution from residential sales 88 82 78 66 73 78<br />
Construction capex 5.8 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.3 4.6<br />
Residential 3.1 6.0 7.1 8.4 8.5 4.5<br />
Non-residential 2.7 4.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.1<br />
Operating expenses 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9<br />
Net operating cash pre tax 7.1 6.8 14.1 23.6 35.8 31.4<br />
Tax expense 1.8 1.8 4.2 7.1 10.7 9.4<br />
Net operating cash post tax 5.3 5.0 9.9 16.5 25.1 22.0<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
12
ORL's development plans are integrated in nature<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Project Name Status Location Saleable Expected GAV/Share Land cost<br />
area (msf) completion date (Rs) (Rs m)<br />
Goregaon (E) 10.5 223 1,060<br />
Exquisite-1 Ongoing Residential 1.4 Nov-13 30<br />
Exquisite-2 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Mar-14 37<br />
Exquisite-3 Ongoing Residential 2.5 May-14 37<br />
Townhouse/Garden City Completed Residential 0.0 Mar-10 2<br />
Commerz I Completed Commercial 0.4 Mar-08 16<br />
Commerz II – Phase I Ongoing Commercial 0.7 Mar-12 21<br />
Commerz II – Phase II Ongoing Commercial 1.7 Mar-12 41<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Completed Retail 0.6 Mar-08 22<br />
<strong>The</strong> Westin Ongoing Hotel 0.4 Mar-10 9<br />
International School Ongoing Social Infrastructure 0.3 Mar-10<br />
Education complex Planned Social Infrastructure 0.9 Apr-11 9<br />
Hospital Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Oct-10<br />
Andheri - East 3.1 34 317<br />
Splendor-1 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Dec-10 5<br />
Splendor-2 Ongoing Residential 0.3 Jun-12 6<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor-1 Ongoing Commercial 0.3 Feb-13 6<br />
Splendor IT Tower Planned Commercial 0.1 Aug-12 5<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor -2 Planned Commercial 0.7 May-13 10<br />
Splendor School Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Apr-11 2<br />
Mulund - West 3.2 78 2,200<br />
Exotica-1 Planned Residential 1.6 Aug-13 17<br />
Exotica-2 Planned Residential 1.6 Sep-13 61<br />
Worli 2.1 27 JDA*<br />
Oasis Ongoing Residential 1.5 Dec-14 20<br />
Oasis - Commercial Ongoing Commercial 0.2 Dec-12 2<br />
Oasis - Mall Planned Retail 0.1 Dec-12 4<br />
Oasis Planned Hotel 0.2 Dec-14 3<br />
Pune 1.3 14 In progress<br />
Sangam City Planned Residential 0.8 Dec-15 8<br />
Sangam City Planned Commercial 0.3 Dec-15 3<br />
Sangam City Planned Retail 0.3 Dec-15 3<br />
Juhu Planned Juhu 1.2 1<br />
Total 21.4 377<br />
* Refundable security desposit of Rs3b Source: Company/MOSL<br />
ORL is likely to be a<br />
key beneficiary of<br />
the commercial<br />
real estate recovery<br />
Commercial recovery to boost annuity cash flow<br />
ORL is likely to be a key beneficiary of recovery in the commercial and retail verticals,<br />
early signs of which are visible. While ORL's annuity income helps to compensate for the<br />
periodic volatility in residential sales, we estimate steady growth in revenue contribution<br />
from annuity assets, with (1) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail businesses<br />
and (2) new projects becoming operational in the office, retail and hotel verticals over next<br />
two to three years.<br />
<strong>The</strong> commercial RE market has been showing early signs of recovery in key micromarkets.<br />
Mumbai, being a frontrunner in this recovery, has registered steady improvement<br />
in commercial leasing with ~10msf of lease transactions during 2010. Besides, in the past<br />
couple of years, demand has been shifting from central business districts (CBDs) like<br />
Nariman Point and Central Mumbai towards suburban business districts like Andheri and<br />
Goregaon. This is due to (1) exorbitant rentals and unavailability of Grade A office space<br />
in the CBDs and (2) improved infrastructure near the western and central suburbs and<br />
their proximity to the airport.<br />
13
11 February 2011<br />
Front-loaded<br />
cash flow offers<br />
investment comfort<br />
City centric<br />
commercial projects will<br />
witness strong demand<br />
We expect annuity income to<br />
generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11<br />
(v/s Rs0.8b in FY10),<br />
~Rs2b in FY12 and<br />
~Rs2.9b in FY13<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Cash flow during FY11-16 is expected to contribute 67% of GAV<br />
We expect ORL to monetize its land bank over 6-7 years, providing it with strong frontended<br />
cash flow unlike many RE companies. Our NAV estimate suggests ORL will<br />
derive ~67% of its GAV from next five years cash flow, which is significantly high<br />
compared with its peers. Front-loaded valuation makes ORL one of the most attractive<br />
<strong>play</strong>s in the RE sector.<br />
Annual value contribution (%)<br />
8<br />
10<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Expect ORL commercial projects to witness strong response<br />
ORL has a strong pipeline of annuity projects of ~5.4msf (~1msf already operational and<br />
~4.4msf to be operational over 3-4 years) largely located in the western suburbs. ORL's<br />
2.4msf of commercial space in the Goregaon Garden City, Commerz II -Phase1 (0.7msf)<br />
and Phase2 (1.7msf) are likely to become operational in FY12 and FY13 respectively. We<br />
expect the projects to attract a strong response due to (a) a robust demand outlook, driven<br />
mainly by MNCs, law firms (on account of the shifting of the High Court to the western<br />
suburbs) and film studios (proximity to Film City) in Goregaon, (b) limited supply of grade-<br />
A office space in the vicinity and (c) proximity to hotels and the airport. ORL's strong<br />
client base with its expansion plan will provide further impetus to the leasing momentum.<br />
We estimate the company will generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11 (v/s Rs0.8b in FY10), ~Rs2b in<br />
FY12 and ~Rs2.9b in FY13 from its commercial, retail, hotel and school projects.<br />
Strong momentum expected in annuity income<br />
15<br />
20<br />
Till FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Capitalized<br />
value post<br />
FY18<br />
Annuity Asset (msf) Commercial/RetailSale (msf)<br />
Hotel Rooms (no) Annuity Revenue(Rs b)<br />
269 269 269 269<br />
2.9<br />
2.0<br />
2.2<br />
1.6<br />
0.7<br />
0.0<br />
0.9<br />
0.2<br />
1.2<br />
0.3 0.5<br />
15<br />
4.7<br />
9<br />
2.7<br />
2<br />
0.4<br />
3.0<br />
21<br />
394 394<br />
6.2<br />
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16<br />
5.9<br />
0.3<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
14
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Multiple revenue streams provide resilience to the down cycle<br />
ORL's strongly diversified product-mix (the residential vertical constitutes ~60% of its<br />
land bank, and 40% is divided among commercial, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure<br />
projects such as schools and hospitals), means that it is poised to generate a quality mix of<br />
revenue streams. ORL has maintained a robust balance in its cash flows by following sale<br />
and lease models for its ~5.4msf of commercial/retail assets. This provides it with multiple<br />
revenue streams, making it resilient to RE cyclicality.<br />
Multiple revenue streams insulate ORL from a down cycle Annuity income mix (Rs m)<br />
0.7<br />
A balanced cash flow<br />
mix offers resilience<br />
during a down cycle<br />
Annuity income (Rsb)<br />
RE sales (Rsb)<br />
3.5<br />
0.8<br />
7.0<br />
1.6<br />
8.8<br />
2.0<br />
11.8<br />
2.9<br />
21.5<br />
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />
We expect the company<br />
to generate ~Rs10b<br />
of operating cash flow<br />
by FY12<br />
288<br />
450<br />
Commercial-Lease Retail-Lease Hotel Social Infra<br />
325<br />
508<br />
315<br />
611<br />
559<br />
497<br />
662<br />
641<br />
235<br />
1,050<br />
695<br />
729<br />
FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />
396<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Surplus cash to augment land bank potential<br />
We expect ORL's limited land bank of ~21.4msf, to take 6-7 years to be monetized.<br />
Hence, going forward, the company is expected to acquire a significant amount of land to<br />
maintain its growth momentum. In this connection, the comfort factor is that ORL has<br />
~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet. Moreover, robust cash flow visibility from its<br />
ongoing/upcoming projects (we expect the company to generate ~Rs10b of operating<br />
cash flow by FY12) and zero gross debt provide ORL with a healthy financial position to<br />
augment its land bank through value accretive acquisitions. While historically the company<br />
acquired land through outright purchase, it is also evaluating opportunities in the<br />
redevelopment vertical and through the JDA route, in which, we expect, ORL has strong<br />
success potential due to its premium brand and superior execution track record.<br />
Visibility of strong operating cash flow an opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects<br />
Free cash inflow (Rs b)<br />
Cummulative till previous year (Rs b)<br />
5<br />
5<br />
Net cash as on<br />
March<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
20<br />
5<br />
15<br />
IPO proceeds FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E<br />
25<br />
5<br />
20<br />
35<br />
10<br />
25<br />
51<br />
16<br />
35<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
15
Exquisite-I (Garden City,<br />
Goregaon) and Splendor-I<br />
(Andheri E) are primary<br />
revenue drivers for FY11<br />
We expect the Mulund and<br />
Worli projects to contribute<br />
significantly from FY12<br />
11 February 2011<br />
ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
We expect ORL's revenue to grow from Rs7.8b in FY10 to Rs24.4b in FY13, implying<br />
FY10-13 CAGR of ~46%. <strong>The</strong> growth will be led mainly by revenue from residential<br />
projects and steady annuity income growth from its commercial, retail, hotel and other<br />
social infrastructure verticals. In FY11, Exquisite-I (Garden City, Goregaon) and Splendor-<br />
I (Andheri-E) will be primary revenue drivers (contributing ~70% of revenue). We expect<br />
its projects in Mulund (Exotica) and Worli (Oasis) to contribute significantly from FY12.<br />
Expect revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13<br />
0.8<br />
Key projects expected to contribute to revenue*<br />
191%<br />
2.4<br />
117%<br />
5.1<br />
Revenue (Rs b) Grow th Rate<br />
-17%<br />
4.3<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
ORL's primary focus has historically been residential development. However, we expect<br />
steady revenue growth from non-residential projects as ORL has a rich pipeline of nonresidential<br />
projects (~8msf) and annuity projects (~5.4msf) (~4.4msf will be operational<br />
over 3-4 years) largely located in Mumbai's western suburbs. We expect steady growth in<br />
revenue from its non-residential projects, going forward, with (1) a broad-based recovery<br />
in commercial and retail businesses and (2) new projects becoming operational in the<br />
office, retail and hotel verticals. We estimate the contribution from its non-residential<br />
projects to increase from 11% in FY10 to 15% in FY11, 24% in FY12 and 26% in FY13.<br />
84%<br />
7.8<br />
32% 34%<br />
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />
Project Name Location Asset Class Saleable / Expected total Revenue GAV/share<br />
Leasable revenue (Rsm) Contribution (Rs m) (Rs)<br />
10.4<br />
13.9<br />
area (msf) FY11 FY12<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Spring Andheri West Residential 0.64 6,911 855 - 1<br />
Townhouse/Garden City Goregaon-East Residential 0.04 738 360 378 2<br />
Splendor-1 Andheri - East Residential 1.28 13,895 3,203 - 5<br />
Exquisite-1 Goregaon - East Residential 1.37 18,545 4,088 5,433 30<br />
Splendor-2 Andheri - East Residential 0.29 3,345 319 905 6<br />
Exquisite-2 Goregaon - East Residential 1.33 21,216 - 733 37<br />
Exotica-1 Mulund - West Residential 1.62 14,355 - 1,337 20<br />
Exotica-2 Mulund - West Residential 1.58 15,299 - 332 17<br />
Oasis Worli Residential 0.54 19,647 - 1,563 37<br />
Commerz I Goregaon-East Commercial 0.365 315 497 16<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Goregaon-East Retail 0.553 611 662 22<br />
<strong>The</strong> Westin Goregaon (E) Hotel 269 rooms 559 641 9<br />
76%<br />
24.4<br />
10,309 12,480 201<br />
* Only contribution from larger projects Source: Company/MOSL<br />
We expect a steady increase<br />
in revenue contribution from<br />
the non-residential vertical<br />
16
Revenue: non-residential verticals to increase contribution (FY11-13)<br />
Retail<br />
6%<br />
Commercial<br />
3%<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Hotel<br />
5%<br />
Social<br />
Infra<br />
1%<br />
EBITDA margins are<br />
expected to improve to<br />
64% due to the high-margin<br />
Worli project<br />
Net margin is expected to<br />
decline from 58% in FY10<br />
to 47% in FY13 mainly due<br />
to a higher tax rate<br />
Residential<br />
85%<br />
Commercial<br />
11%<br />
Retail<br />
6%<br />
Hotel<br />
5%<br />
Social<br />
Infra<br />
2%<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
ORL to post earnings of 35% CAGR over FY10-13<br />
We expect 35% CAGR in ORL's PAT, from Rs4.6b in FY10 to Rs11.3b in FY13. This will<br />
be driven by (1) strong contribution from the residential vertical, and (2) higher rental<br />
income with new properties becoming operational. Historically, ORL has enjoyed high<br />
EBITDA margins due to its presence in attractive locations and its ability to command a<br />
premium. We expect ORL's EBITDA margins will improve from 60% in FY10 to 64% in<br />
FY13 due to (1) monetization of later stages of integrated development, which offers<br />
higher realization, and (2) contribution from its Worli project. However, net margin could<br />
decline from 58% in FY10 to 47% in FY13 mainly due to (1) a higher tax rate after the<br />
abolition of 80IB, and (2) possible debt finance which could invite interest costs, hitherto<br />
unseen in ORL's financial statements.<br />
EBITDA margin to increase after contribution from Worli project<br />
0.4<br />
52%<br />
1.2<br />
50%<br />
2.6<br />
2.5<br />
Expect net profit CAGR of 36% over FY10-13<br />
Residential<br />
76%<br />
4.7<br />
Retail<br />
5%<br />
Commercial<br />
16%<br />
Residential<br />
74%<br />
FY11 FY12 FY13<br />
44%<br />
EBITDA(Rsb) EBITDA Margin<br />
58%<br />
60%<br />
58%<br />
6.0<br />
Hotel<br />
3%<br />
Social<br />
Infra<br />
2%<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />
43%<br />
0.4<br />
PAT(Rsb)<br />
NET Margin<br />
33%<br />
0.8<br />
58%<br />
3.0<br />
59% 58%<br />
2.5<br />
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />
4.6<br />
50%<br />
5.2<br />
58%<br />
8.0<br />
47%<br />
6.5<br />
64%<br />
15.6<br />
47%<br />
11.3<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
17
Value unlocking is<br />
expected from deployment<br />
of surplus cash<br />
ORL is well placed to<br />
leverage the up-cycle of the<br />
commercial/retail vertical<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger<br />
for the stock<br />
Key triggers for the stock are: (1) ORL's prudent use of surplus cash to augment its land<br />
bank, (2) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail market, and (3) traction in<br />
pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu) and enhancement of incentives in existing projects<br />
(Worli and Pune).<br />
Prudent use of surplus cash to augment land bank<br />
Despite a high quality land bank, ORL faces a risk of limited long-term potential of its land<br />
parcels. However, ORL has one of the most attractive balance sheets among RE companies<br />
with ~Rs15b of surplus cash. Moreover, its ongoing and upcoming project pipeline provide<br />
with a strong cash flow visibility over the next 5-6 years. We estimate an incremental net<br />
cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (total surplus cash balance estimated at Rs25b by FY12).<br />
We believe a judicious deployment of this surplus cash in value accretive land acquisition<br />
would be a key trigger for the stock.<br />
Broad-based recovery in the commercial, retail market<br />
ORL has ~1msf of operational assets in the commercial and retail segments along with<br />
~4.4msf of projects in the pipeline, which are to be operational over 3-4 years. <strong>The</strong>refore,<br />
with the ongoing recovery in commercial RE, we believe ORL is well placed to leverage<br />
on the up-cycle of the commercial/retail vertical, which would favorably impact its annuity<br />
income.<br />
Traction in pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu), enhancement of<br />
incentives in existing projects (Worli and Pune)<br />
<strong>The</strong> ORL management indicated that OCPL (ORL's 100% subsidiary), through its joint<br />
venture SRPL, entered into a purchase agreement with Tulip Hospitality Services in 2005<br />
for a six-acre hotel property in Juhu with ORL's share of the development area being<br />
~1.3msf. But the purchase agreement is under dispute and has been referred to for<br />
arbitration. We value the property at Rs675m, which is the amount paid by the company.<br />
<strong>The</strong>refore, a positive outcome of the arbitration in favor of ORL would be value accretive<br />
for it. Similarly, a possible increase in saleable area in its Worli project (based on higher<br />
FSI allowance for additional land) and the Pune project (since ORL is in the process of<br />
land aggregation), would have a positive impact on its NAV.<br />
18
Increasing land price in<br />
Mumbai could be a key<br />
headwind for ORL’s land<br />
acquisition plans<br />
ORL’s strong surplus cash<br />
renders the ability to<br />
acquire value accretive land<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Key headwinds<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
We believe that the key risks for the company are (1) challenges in land acquisition due to<br />
increasing land costs in Mumbai, (2) possible operational hurdles in JDA/SRA-linked<br />
projects, and (3) over dependence on Mumbai market.<br />
Increasing land prices could exert pressure on margins<br />
Land prices in Mumbai have appreciated sharply over the past 4-5 years, exerting pressure<br />
on developers' margins. ORL has a limited land bank of ~21msf, which we expect will<br />
take 6-7 years to monetize. In the near to medium term, we don't find cause for concern<br />
due to replenishing of the land bank, but ORL needs to focus on augmenting its development<br />
potential significantly to replicate its growth momentum in the long term. ORL's existing<br />
land bank is historical and its attractive acquisition cost is mainly attributed to the pre-2005<br />
RE market, which was before the sharp upswing in prices. After 2007, ORL made no<br />
meaningful land acquisition. <strong>The</strong> company also doesn't have established expertise in the<br />
redevelopment business, which is a key land acquisition route in Mumbai city. Hence, the<br />
rising land price could be a visible headwind for ORL's land acquisition plans.<br />
Sharp increase in land price visible in recent NTC mill auctions<br />
960<br />
1,536<br />
Jupiter Mill<br />
(Mar-05)<br />
Rsm/acre Rs/sf for 2.5x FSI Rs/sf for 4x FSI<br />
918<br />
1,469<br />
Apollo Mills<br />
(Jun-05)<br />
1,580<br />
2,528<br />
Mumbai<br />
Textile (Jun-<br />
05)<br />
2,109<br />
3,375<br />
Source: Industry/MOSL<br />
What mitigates the risk<br />
ORL has one of the most cash rich balance sheets among RE companies with ~Rs15b of<br />
surplus cash. Besides, with strong monetization visibility from its ongoing and upcoming<br />
projects, ORL is likely to generate robust operating cash flow over 6-7 years. We estimate<br />
ORL will generate a surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers it a huge<br />
opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects.<br />
Besides, ORL is better off than other its Mumbai peers, who have entered several high<br />
value land transactions and already leveraged themselves. Hence they are likely to curtail<br />
land acquisition plans in the near term. Consequently, ORL is well placed to capture the<br />
opportunity to acquire land at reasonable costs.<br />
551<br />
Elphinstone<br />
Mill (Jul-05)<br />
3,356<br />
5,369<br />
877<br />
Kohinoor Mill<br />
(Jul-05)<br />
7,588<br />
12,141<br />
1,983<br />
Poddar Mill<br />
(Jul-10)<br />
6,880<br />
11,008<br />
1,798<br />
Bharat Mill<br />
(Aug-10)<br />
19
A stronger balance sheet<br />
compared with its peers and<br />
a market slowdown will offer<br />
an opportunity to acquire<br />
land at reasonable costs<br />
Possible operational risk<br />
at its SRA-linked project<br />
in Worli has vastly<br />
been mitigated<br />
with steady progress<br />
A lack of market<br />
diversification exposes<br />
ORL to the risk of relying on<br />
a single RE market<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Comparative financial strengths of RE developers in Mumbai<br />
-15 -15<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
5 4<br />
Peninsula<br />
**<br />
-2<br />
Gross Debt (Rs b) Net Debt (Rs b)<br />
DB<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
2<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
*As on Mar-09 (DRHP data); ** As on Mar-10 Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Operational hurdles in key projects could have a negative impact<br />
ORL has highlighted operational complications in its key projects, which could be a major<br />
headwind for it. Its ~2.1msf mixed-use Worli land (Oasis) could suffer from operational<br />
and regulatory uncertainties relating to SRA projects and dependence on JDA partners.<br />
Its Pune project (Sangam City) is yet to receive requisite development approvals since<br />
ORL is in the land aggregation stage. We believe defaults or delays could have a negative<br />
impact on its value, since the two projects contribute ~11% of GAV.<br />
What mitigates the risk<br />
ORL's developable area in Worli is in the free-sale area of the SRS project and the land is<br />
free from encumbrances. <strong>The</strong> project has been issued a Letter of Intent (LOI) and<br />
rehabilitation work is on. Hence the project has overcome a significant operation hurdle<br />
and has limited execution challenges.<br />
Dependence on western Mumbai<br />
Almost 94% of ORL's land bank and over 96% of its GAV emerges from its Mumbai<br />
projects, with the western suburbs (projects in Goregaon and Andheri) contributing ~68%<br />
of its GAV. This makes it over-dependent on the RE market of the western suburbs. <strong>The</strong><br />
absence of market diversification exposes ORL to vagaries of a single RE market. <strong>The</strong><br />
recent price appreciation in Mumbai's residential market has resulted in a slow sales<br />
across locations, which could have a negative impact on ORL's monetization velocity and<br />
ability to command premium pricing.<br />
What mitigates the risk<br />
ORL's positioning offers comfort even during the torpidity in RE demand due to:<br />
33<br />
Indiabulls<br />
RE<br />
a) Attractive locations, superior quality make ORL's products preferable: All<br />
ORL's projects are in attractive city-centric locations. <strong>The</strong> projects have good ambience,<br />
greenery and facilities emerging from the product-mix such as schools, hospitals, malls<br />
and hotels in the same land parcel. This enhances a project's attraction and makes it a<br />
preferred destination for home buyers. Besides, ORL's quality construction and premium<br />
offering increase salability.<br />
10<br />
8<br />
Orbit **<br />
7<br />
41<br />
HDIL<br />
38<br />
29<br />
Lodha *<br />
27<br />
20
Product positioning,<br />
attractive location, low cost<br />
land and better holding<br />
capacity offer comfort<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
b) Strong financial position mitigates execution risk: Slow RE demand in Mumbai<br />
can be attributed to buyers' concerns about possible execution challenges developers<br />
could face in the light of a financially tight market. <strong>The</strong> sharp appreciation of Mumbai<br />
property prices also contributed to slow RE demand. However, ORL's zero-debt,<br />
surplus-cash position would mitigate buyers' concerns. ORL's established track record<br />
and strong management goodwill ensure on-time delivery and uninterrupted execution.<br />
Macro economic risks<br />
We have assumed 5% CAGR from FY11 for all projects across cities. However, a decline<br />
in property prices, rise in inflation and interest rate, and change in government regulation<br />
could have a significant impact on our NAV estimate. Due to lack of predictability of such<br />
events we have not incorporated such impacts.<br />
21
Mulund<br />
(W)<br />
21%<br />
Expect ORL to trade at<br />
FY12 NAV of Rs310<br />
Residential projects<br />
contribute ~50% of GAV<br />
while ~36% comes from<br />
commercial/retail properties<br />
Andheri<br />
(E)<br />
9%<br />
Worli<br />
7%<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Pune<br />
4%<br />
Valuation and view<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on<br />
an NPV-based method of valuing its land bank. We expect ORL to trade at par to our<br />
estimated FY12 NAV due to (1) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash, (2) strong<br />
near term cash flow visibility and (3) premium brand equity. Our one year forward target<br />
price for ORL is Rs310. We expect ORL to post 35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13.<br />
ORL is attractively valued at 11.4x FY12E EPS of Rs19.8 and 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6<br />
and ~27.4% discount to our target price of Rs310. Buy.<br />
FY12 NAV calculation<br />
Rs m NAV/share (Rs) % GAV<br />
Residential 73,011 222 59<br />
Commercial (Lease) 25,609 78 21<br />
Commercial (Sale) 8,289 25 7<br />
Retail (Lease) 7,106 22 6<br />
Retail (Sale) 2,047 6 2<br />
Hotels 3,494 11 3<br />
Infra Business+Land holding 4,164 13 3<br />
Gross Asset Value 123,720 377 100<br />
Add: Cash 15,000 46 12<br />
Less: Other Op Exp 9,898 30 8<br />
Tax 27,136 83 22<br />
Net Asset Value 101,686 310 82<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
NAV calculation: Key assumptions<br />
1. Our NAV estimate factors in development plans that will be executed over 6-7 years.<br />
2. 5% CAGR in RE prices across cities and verticals (residential, commercial and retail).<br />
3. 4% CAGR in construction cost for all verticals.<br />
4. Steady state occupancy rates of 90% in the commercial and retail segments.<br />
5. Steady state occupancy rates of 70% in the hospitality segments.<br />
6. Cap rate of 11% in the commercial, retail and hospitality verticals.<br />
7. WACC of 14%.<br />
Western suburbs contribute ~68% Commercial/retail verticals contribute ~Rs130/sh to ORL's GAV of Rs377/sh<br />
Goregaon<br />
(E)<br />
59%<br />
222<br />
Residential<br />
78<br />
Commercial<br />
(Lease)<br />
25 22 6 11 13<br />
Commercial<br />
(Sale)<br />
Retail (Lease)<br />
Retail (Sale)<br />
Hotels<br />
Infra<br />
Business+Land<br />
holding<br />
46 30<br />
Add: Cash<br />
Less: Other Op<br />
Exp<br />
83<br />
Tax<br />
310<br />
NAV<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
22
Value unlocking from<br />
surplus cash could drive<br />
growth potential beyond the<br />
existing land bank<br />
An RoE of 22% and 0.2x<br />
(of cash balance) leverage<br />
could render ~37% premium<br />
to ORL’s book value of cash<br />
at Rs46/share<br />
ORL’s brand equity makes it<br />
a preferred partner in<br />
(1) redevelopment and<br />
(2) joint-development<br />
projects<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
What could push the stock to trade above NAV<br />
We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share. Our one<br />
year forward target price for ORL is Rs310 (at par with its FY12NAV). However, we<br />
follow an NPV-based NAV approach to value RE companies based on their land banks,<br />
which captures value emerging from their existing development potential only. In this<br />
regard, we believe ORL could trade at a premium to its FY12NAV due to its (1) value<br />
unlocking potential of its huge surplus cash and (2) strong brand equity, which helps it to<br />
command premium pricing power.<br />
Value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash: ORL has one of the most cash rich<br />
balance sheets among RE companies with zero gross debt. As on date, the company has<br />
~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet.. Besides, with strong monetization visibility<br />
from its ongoing and upcoming projects, ORL is expected generate healthy free cash flow<br />
over 6-7 years. We estimate an incremental net cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (enhancing<br />
the surplus cash balance to Rs25b by FY12) after addressing its requirement for construction<br />
capex, operating and tax expenses. We believe such financial strength offers opportunity<br />
of value-accretive land acquisitions to drive growth potential beyond the land bank.<br />
Despite the large amounts of idle cash on its books, ORL has had a robust RoE (average<br />
RoE of 24.7% over FY08-10) due to its (1) premium pricing and (2) low cost land, leading<br />
to superior margins. Besides, ORL's zero debt scenario offers tremendous potential to<br />
<strong>play</strong> on leverage. This speaks volumes about its value unleashing potential through<br />
deployment of surplus funds in high RoE projects. Our NPV-based NAV estimate values<br />
net cash on books of ~Rs15b at Rs46/share. However, the acquisition of projects with<br />
attractive RoE could add to value accretion beyond its book value. With an RoE assumption<br />
of 22% and 0.2x (of cash balance) leverage, surplus cash could be valued at Rs63/share<br />
or ~37% premium to its book value of Rs46/share. This value unlocking potential explains<br />
why we expect ORL to trade at a premium to its NAV.<br />
Surplus cash per share sensitivity to RoE and leverage (Rs)<br />
If surplus cash With leverage of (x)<br />
gives RoE of (%) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4<br />
20 56 58 59 60 61<br />
22 60 62 63 65 66<br />
24 64 66 68 70 72<br />
26 69 71 73 75 78<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Strong brand equity, premium pricing power: ORL has focused mainly on the mid<br />
income housing segment and created a premium positioning within this market. This is due<br />
to (a) strong brand equity, (b) integrated product positioning in attractive locations, and (c)<br />
superior product quality. However, recently the company has also entered into premium<br />
projects at Worli through a JDA model, where its brand equity has enabled it to acquire<br />
high quality land at an attractive proposition. We believe its premium brand equity makes<br />
ORL a preferred partner for (1) redevelopment and (2) joint-development projects, which<br />
augur positively for value-accretive project acquisitions going forward.<br />
23
<strong>The</strong> stock is exposed to<br />
limited down side risk in the<br />
event of a price correction<br />
20% price correction<br />
in developement projects<br />
to have only 14%<br />
impact on NAV<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Sensitivity of NAV to change in realizations (Rs/share)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Even with 20% drop from assumed price, stock is 'in the money'<br />
Over the last one year, Mumbai's residential prices has appreciated sharply. This has<br />
resulted in a huge volume slowdown across Mumbai's residential micro-markets. However,<br />
we consider this slowdown a short-term phenomenon emerging from the cyclical nature<br />
of the sector. We believe medium-term growth prospects for the RE sector in Mumbai is<br />
robust due to (a) huge inherent demand in asset classes, (b) much-hyped oversupply<br />
pipeline on paper and limited physical supply of completed projects and (c) all the macroeconomic<br />
fundamentals being unaltered for the market.<br />
However, we have assumed realistic price and absorption schedules for ORL’s projects<br />
considering an ongoing slowdown in the market. In this regard, we have also analyzed the<br />
sensitivity of the stock due to a possible price correction. However, we believe this price<br />
correction, if any, is likely to impact the residential vertical only, since the ongoing lease<br />
rentals in the commercial and retail verticals, in our opinion, has bottomed out and is in the<br />
stabilization phase with visible recovery in these verticals.<br />
In our sensitivity analysis we have assumed a price correction across ORL's (a) residential<br />
projects and (b) commercial/retail projects under the sale model, and we have maintained<br />
our base case lease rental assumption for commercial/retail projects under the lease model.<br />
Our study suggests that with a price correction of 20% for its projects under the sale<br />
model ORL's FY12 NAV would be down to Rs267/share (~14% from the base case<br />
NAV of Rs310/share), implying an upside potential of ~19% at current prices.<br />
Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%<br />
Residential 169 196 222 249 276<br />
Commercial (Lease) 78 78 78 78 78<br />
Commercial (Sale) 19 23 25 31 36<br />
Retail (Lease) 22 22 22 22 22<br />
Retail (Sale) 5 5 6 7 8<br />
Hotels 11 11 11 11 11<br />
Infra Business+Land holding 12 12 13 12 12<br />
Gross Asset Value 315 347 377 410 441<br />
Add: Cash 46 46 46 46 46<br />
Less: Other Op Exp 25 28 30 33 35<br />
Tax 69 76 83 90 97<br />
Net Asset Value 267 289 310 333 355<br />
% change in NAV (13.9) (7.1) - 7.1 14.6<br />
Sensitivity of NAV to price and WACC (Rs/share)<br />
WACC<br />
Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%<br />
13% 276 298 320 342 364<br />
14% 267 289 310 333 355<br />
15% 258 280 302 324 346<br />
FY12E EPS (Rs) 15.8 17.9 19.8 22.2 24.2<br />
24
Key assumptions in our NAV estimate (Rs)<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
We believe ORL’s limited downside risk to a price correction would be primarily due to its<br />
annuity projects which render it a strong support during a downcycle.With the recovery of<br />
commercial vertical, we expect its annuity properties to witness a strong upside going<br />
forward.<br />
Moreover, ORL has low cost land bank and enjoys a superior margins across projects. We<br />
belive this provides with a huge flexibility to cut prices without significant impact on its<br />
margins and achieve higher sales velocity. Our sensitivity analysis doesn’t capture the<br />
upside risk arising out of price rationalizations due to its subjectivity.<br />
We consider the company to be an attractive bet with (a) its ability to leverage the buoyancy<br />
of the Mumbai RE market and (b) limited impact from market slowdown.<br />
Projects Product Type Location Saleable Area (msf) Realization (FY11) Cost/sf Completion<br />
Splendor-1 Residential Andheri - East 1.28 14,000 3,200 FY11<br />
Exquisite-1 Residential Goregaon - East 1.37 14,000 3,500 FY13<br />
Splendor-2 Residential Andheri - East 0.29 11,000 3,200 FY14<br />
Exquisite-2 Residential Goregaon - East 1.33 14,000 3,500 FY15<br />
Exotica-1 Residential Mulund - West 1.62 8,000 3,000 FY15<br />
Exotica-2 Residential Mulund - West 1.58 8,000 3,000 FY17<br />
Exquisite-3 Residential Goregaon - East 2.54 14,000 3,500 FY17<br />
Oasis Residential Worli 0.54 32,000 5,500 FY16<br />
Sangam City Residential Pune 0.77 5,500 1,700 FY16<br />
Oasis - Commercial Commercial Sale Worli 0.08 30,000 5,000 FY14<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor-1 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.32 9,500 3,000 FY14<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor -2 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.71 9,500 3,000 FY15<br />
Sangam City Commercial Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,700 FY17<br />
Commerz I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.37 120 3,000 FY08<br />
Commerz II – Phase I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.73 110 3,000 FY12<br />
Commerz II – Phase II Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 1.66 110 3,000 FY13<br />
Oasis - Mall Retail Sale Worli 0.04 30,000 5,000 FY14<br />
Sangam City Retail Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,800 FY16<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Retail Lease Goregaon-East 0.55 100 2,800 FY08<br />
<strong>The</strong> Westin Hotel Goregaon-East 269 7,000 5,500 FY10<br />
Oasis Hotel Worli 45 10,000 6,000 FY15<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
25
Comparative valuation<br />
ORL is trading at 27% discount to FY12 NAV ORL is trading at 34% discount to FY13 NAV<br />
HDIL<br />
IBREL<br />
Unitech<br />
-62 -63 -59<br />
Real Estate: Comparative valuations<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Mah Life<br />
NAV Prem. / Disc. (%)<br />
Anant Raj<br />
Brigade<br />
-47 -46 -45<br />
DLF<br />
-34<br />
Phoenix<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Purvankara<br />
-29 -27 -22<br />
Godrej<br />
Prop<br />
-16<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Company Rating CMP Mcap FY12 FY13 TP* Up- EPS P/E P/B RoE<br />
(Rs) (Rs b) NAV NAV (Rs) side (Rs) (x) (x) (%)<br />
(Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E<br />
DLF Buy 242 415 367 397 338 39.5 10.8 12.6 22.3 19.2 1.5 1.5 6.3 7.3<br />
Unitech Buy 38 92 93 107 61 60.0 3.0 4.1 12.7 9.2 0.9 0.9 6.5 8.3<br />
IBREL Buy 107 43 256 291 166 55.0 5.5 6.9 19.5 15.5 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.6<br />
HDIL UR 129 53 348 NA NA NA 21.2 25.1 6.1 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 10.9<br />
Anant Raj Buy 99 29 185 200 150 51.4 6.6 7.9 15.1 12.6 0.8 0.7 5.3 6.0<br />
Phoenix Mills Buy 184 27 258 288 260 41.3 6.6 7.8 27.9 23.6 1.6 1.5 5.7 6.4<br />
Mah Life Buy 314 13 593 604 453 44.3 32.2 43.5 9.8 7.2 1.2 1.3 12.0 14.1<br />
Brigade Buy 95 11 172 197 148 55.3 12.0 16.1 7.9 5.9 1.0 0.9 12.1 14.8<br />
Puravankara Neutral 105 22 135 155 124 18.0 7.9 9.1 13.3 11.5 1.4 1.3 10.5 11.0<br />
Peninsula Neutral 59 16 100 105 84 42.5 11.9 13.2 5.0 4.5 1.2 1.0 28.3 29.4<br />
GPL Neutral 576 40 686 777 700 21.5 16.3 39.5 35.2 14.6 4.4 3.4 13.1 26.1<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Buy 225 74 310 342 310 37.8 15.8 19.8 14.3 11.4 2.2 1.9 19.8 17.7<br />
*TP: Target price Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Unitech<br />
IBREL<br />
HDIL<br />
-65 -63 -62<br />
Brigade<br />
-52<br />
NAV Prem. / Disc. (%)<br />
Anant Raj<br />
Mah Life<br />
Peninsula<br />
DLF<br />
Phoenix<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Purvankara<br />
Godrej<br />
Prop<br />
-50 -48 -44 -39 -36 -34 -32 -26<br />
26
ORL has undertaken<br />
~5msf of RE development<br />
across 33 projects<br />
� ORL holds the Garden City<br />
projects excluding<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />
� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Private Ltd<br />
holds <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />
� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Constructions<br />
Private Ltd holds Andheri<br />
and Mulund properties.<br />
� Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> holds the<br />
Worli properties.<br />
� Siddhivinayak Realties<br />
Private Ltd holds the<br />
disputed Juhu Hotel.<br />
� Sangam City Township<br />
Private Ltd, a JV between<br />
ORL, DB <strong>Realty</strong> and the<br />
Avinash Bhosale group,<br />
holds the Pune project.<br />
ORL has a 21.4msf land<br />
bank in Mumbai and Pune<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Background<br />
ORL's land bank: Location wise (MSF)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Limited is a Mumbai-based real estate developer. It was incorporated in<br />
May 1998 as Kingston Properties Private Ltd. <strong>The</strong> name of the company changed to<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Private Ltd in October 2009. It was converted into a public limited company<br />
in December 2009. ORL's primary focus is to develop residential property but it has<br />
diversified into retail, commercial, hospitality and social infrastructure projects. <strong>The</strong><br />
promoters have a proven track record in the Mumbai RE market since 1983. ORL has<br />
undertaken ~5msf of RE development across 33 projects so far, which provides it with<br />
rich experience in the Mumbai RE market. In October 2010, ORL raised ~Rs10.3b through<br />
a public issue of 36.9m shares. <strong>The</strong> stated objectives for the issue been: (1) construction<br />
funding of key ongoing and planned residential and commercial projects, and (2) to acquire<br />
land or land development rights.<br />
ORL's corporate structure<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />
Construction<br />
Private Ltd<br />
50%<br />
Siddhivinayak<br />
Realties<br />
Private Ltd<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Kingston<br />
Property<br />
Services<br />
Private Ltd<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Limited<br />
100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100%<br />
100%<br />
Perspective<br />
Realties<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Oasis<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Sangam City<br />
Township<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
Western suburbs Central suburbs Island City Pune Total<br />
Residential 6.8 3.2 1.5 0.8 12.3<br />
Commercial 3.9 - 0.2 0.3 4.4<br />
Retail 0.6 - 0.1 0.3 1.0<br />
Hospitality 1.7 0.2 1.9<br />
Social Infra 2.0 2.0<br />
Total 14.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 21.4<br />
ORL's land bank: Development status wise (MSF)<br />
Kingston<br />
Hospitality<br />
& Developers<br />
Private Ltd<br />
Unincorporated<br />
Unincorporated JV<br />
JV<br />
Zaco<br />
Aviation<br />
Expression<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Private Ltd<br />
Triumph<br />
<strong>Realty</strong><br />
Private Ltd<br />
Completed Annuity assets Ongoing Upcoming Total<br />
Residential NA 5.8 6.5 12.3<br />
Commercial 0.4 3.7 0.4 4.4<br />
Retail 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0<br />
Hospitality 0.4 0.2 1.3 1.9<br />
Social infra - 0.3 1.7 2.0<br />
1.3 10.1 10.1 21.4<br />
Source: Company/MOSL<br />
27
ORL has integrated projects<br />
location in Goregaon,<br />
Andheri, Mulund and Worli<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Annexure : Project location<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
28
ORL has already sold 37<br />
units in Splendor<br />
Grande and ~93% in<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor is a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office space and<br />
social infrastructure projects, on approximately 21.50 acres of land in Andheri (E) a western<br />
suburb of Mumbai. <strong>The</strong> project is located on the Jogeshwari Vikhroli Link Road (JVLR)<br />
and has total saleable area of ~3msf. ORL acquired this land from Madhu Fantasy Land<br />
Pvt. Ltd and Avinash Bhosale in 2005 at Rs1.06b.<strong>The</strong> development is located near the<br />
arterial Western Express Highway and overlooks Aarey Milk Colony, a 3,160 acre<br />
no-development green zone. This development site is being developed by its wholly-owned<br />
subsidiary, OCPL.<br />
Residential plot<br />
Integrated layout of Splendor (Andheri E) project<br />
Splendor II<br />
(Grande)<br />
IT Tower<br />
Splendor I<br />
Commerical<br />
Phase-I<br />
Commerical<br />
Phase-II<br />
(Prisma)<br />
~1,200 units (out of 1,296 units) have been sold in Splendor I<br />
School<br />
Plot<br />
JVLR<br />
Constructions have commenced in Grande(Residential) and Prisma (Commercial)<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Grande School Plot<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Prisma<br />
29
Expect Oasis residential will<br />
be launched in 1HFY12<br />
Layout of Oasis project at Worli<br />
Dr. Annie<br />
Besant Road<br />
11 February 2011<br />
Oasis<br />
Commerical /<br />
Retail / Hotel<br />
Excavation work commenced in Worli plots<br />
Rehab building<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Oasis<br />
Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> is a joint venture between ORL's wholly-owned subsidiary, OCPL, Skylark<br />
Build and Shree Vrunda Enterprises to develop a mixed-use development of approximately<br />
2.1msf of saleable area in Worli, located on the arterial Annie Besant Road. As a joint<br />
venture partner, OCPL will be responsible for developing the free-sale portion arising<br />
from the slum redevelopment project being undertaken on the property. <strong>The</strong> rehabilitation<br />
component of the slum redevelopment project is the responsibility of the other joint-venture<br />
partners. OCPL would receive 25-40% of net revenues (gross revenue less construction<br />
cost) from sale of residential, office space and retail components. Provided construction<br />
of hotel is completed by OCPL, it would receive 36.25% of net revenues from the hotel.<br />
Residential plot<br />
Oasis<br />
Residential<br />
Rehab Buildings<br />
Commercial and hotel plot<br />
30
Projects at Mulund are<br />
likely to be launched in<br />
4QFY11 and land<br />
aggreation is progressing<br />
in Pune<br />
11 February 2011<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica is a residential development on approximately 18.3 acres of land in Mulund<br />
(W) a central suburb of Mumbai. <strong>The</strong> development is located on LBS Marg, a key road in<br />
the central suburbs, and overlooks the Borivali National Park. <strong>The</strong> project has a total<br />
saleable area of ~3.2msf and is divided into two phases: Exotica-I has a salable area of<br />
1.6msf comprising ~890 units while Exotica-II has a saleable area of 1.6msf with 869<br />
units. ORL acquired this land for Rs2.2b in 2005 from GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals<br />
Limited. ORL expects to launch the projects by 4QFY11.<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> Sangam City project at Pune<br />
ORL holds a 31.67% interest in Sangam City Township Private Limited (Sangam City<br />
Township), an SPV, established for a development project comprising approximately 56<br />
acres of land located in Sangamwadi, Pune, and surrounded by the Mula Mutha River on<br />
three sides. <strong>The</strong> land is situated 2km from Pune Railway Station and 6km from Pune<br />
International Airport.<br />
<strong>The</strong> project will be developed as a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office<br />
space and retail components. This agricultural land parcel was acquired through individual<br />
agreements with the land owner since 2007. <strong>The</strong> SPV would be responsible for obtaining<br />
approval related to land conversion. While the land aggregation process in still continuing,<br />
ORL has made the cash payment partly by disbursing and partly keeping it in an escrow<br />
account.<br />
31
11 February 2011<br />
Financials and valuation<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
INCOME STATEMENT (Rs Million)<br />
Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />
Net Sales 5,112 4,255 7,836 10,382 13,865 24,383<br />
Change (%) 117.4 (16.8) 84.2 32.5 33.5 75.9<br />
Construction expenses 2,504 1,695 3,094 4,150 5,567 8,491<br />
Staff Cost 33 87 70 259 284 313<br />
EBITDA 2,575 2,474 4,672 5,973 8,014 15,579<br />
% of Net Sales 50.4 58.1 59.6 57.5 57.8 63.9<br />
Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189<br />
Interest 0 4 - - - 248<br />
Other Income 474 295 218 545 1,119 1,158<br />
PBT 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300<br />
Tax 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955<br />
Rate (%) 2.3 6.6 4.7 19.0 27.5 30.4<br />
Adjusted PAT 2,954 2,521 4,582 5,174 6,495 11,345<br />
Change (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />
BALANCE SHEET (Rs Million)<br />
Y/E MARCH 2,008 2,009 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />
Share Capital 26 26 2,887 3,282 3,282 3,282<br />
Reserves 11,395 13,840 15,392 30,087 36,027 45,895<br />
Net Worth 12,204 14,437 18,637 33,728 39,669 49,536<br />
Loans 1,435 107 - - - 4,954<br />
Capital Employed 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490<br />
Gross Fixed Assets 477 2,837 3,258 4,362 4,736 5,841<br />
Less: Depreciation 31 101 190 209 230 253<br />
Net Fixed Assets 446 2,736 3,068 4,153 4,507 5,588<br />
Capital WIP 3,917 3,851 5,103 5,307 6,497 6,458<br />
Curr. Assets 8,991 11,794 16,517 34,007 40,287 54,194<br />
Inventory 5,504 7,127 6,243 8,885 11,958 11,893<br />
Debtors 501 272 404 831 1,387 2,438<br />
Cash & Bank Balance 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543 27,671<br />
Loans & Advances 2,526 2,725 6,240 8,306 10,399 12,192<br />
Current Liab. & Prov. 3,548 3,993 6,843 10,933 12,815 12,944<br />
Creditors 3,540 3,962 6,746 10,909 12,792 12,920<br />
Provisions 9 31 97 24 24 24<br />
Net Current Assets 5,443 7,801 9,675 23,075 27,471 41,250<br />
Misc. Expenses - - - - - -<br />
Application of Funds 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490<br />
E: MOSL Estimates<br />
32
11 February 2011<br />
Financials and valuation<br />
RATIOS<br />
<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />
Basic (Rs)<br />
Adjusted EPS 9.0 7.7 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6<br />
Growth (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />
Cash EPS 9.1 7.9 14.2 16.2 20.3 35.1<br />
Book Value 37.2 44.0 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9<br />
DPS 1.4 0.6 4.0 1.0 1.5 4.0<br />
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 9.7 7.0 28.4 7.1 8.5 13.0<br />
Valuation (x)<br />
P/E 25.4 29.8 16.4 14.5 11.6 6.6<br />
Cash P/E 25.3 29.0 16.1 14.2 11.3 6.5<br />
EV/EBITDA 29.6 29.8 15.3 9.9 7.3 3.4<br />
EV/Sales 14.9 17.3 9.1 5.7 4.2 2.2<br />
Price/Book Value 6.2 5.2 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5<br />
Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 1.7<br />
Profitability Ratios (%)<br />
RoE 27.6 18.9 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4<br />
RoCE 23.3 19.1 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1<br />
Leverage Ratio<br />
Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 - - - 0.1<br />
CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Rs Million)<br />
Y/E MARCH 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />
PBT before Extraordinary Items 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300<br />
Add : Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189<br />
Interest 0 4 - - - 248<br />
Less : Direct Taxes Paid 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955<br />
(Inc)/Dec in WC 498 1,150 (87) 1,044 3,839 2,651<br />
CF from Operations 2,476 1,448 4,759 4,260 2,830 9,131<br />
(Inc)/Dec in FA (1,937) (2,297) (1,675) (1,419) (1,719) (1,232)<br />
(Pur)/Sale of Investments (3,842) 3,692 (640) (404) - -<br />
CF from Investments (5,779) 1,395 (2,315) (1,823) (1,719) (1,232)<br />
(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth 287 (127) 923 10,288 0 0<br />
(Inc)/Dec in Debt (1,708) (1,328) (107) - - 4,954<br />
Less : Interest Paid 0 4 - - - 248<br />
Dividend Paid 288 177 1,299 369 554 1,477<br />
CF from Fin. Activity (1,709) (1,635) (483) 9,919 (554) 3,229<br />
Inc/Dec of Cash (5,012) 1,208 1,961 12,355 557 11,128<br />
Add: Beginning Balance 5,473 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543<br />
Closing Balance 461 1,669 3,630 15,986 16,543 27,671<br />
E: MOSL Estimates<br />
33
Motilal Oswal Company Gallery
For more copies or other information, contact<br />
Institutional: Navin Agarwal. Retail: Manish Shah<br />
Phone: (91-22) 39825500 Fax: (91-22) 22885038. E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com<br />
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, 3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021<br />
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Motilal Oswal<br />
Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely<br />
for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.<br />
<strong>The</strong> report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. MOSt or<br />
any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the<br />
information contained in this report. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding<br />
any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. <strong>The</strong><br />
recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.<br />
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency,<br />
MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.<br />
Disclosure of Interest Statement <strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />
1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes<br />
2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock No<br />
3. Broking relationship with company covered No<br />
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No<br />
This information is subject to change without any prior notice. MOSt reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required<br />
from time to time. Nevertheless, MOSt is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide<br />
information in response to specific client queries.