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High High quality quality<br />

land land bank bank<br />

Integrated Integrated<br />

development<br />

development<br />

����� Higher<br />

����� Robust loan<br />

growth<br />

����� Lower credit<br />

cost<br />

productivity<br />

<strong>Premium</strong><br />

brand<br />

����� 33% EPS<br />

CAGR<br />

Siddharth Bothra (SBothra@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5407<br />

Sandipan Pal (Sandipan.Pal @MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5436<br />

Initiating Coverage | SECTOR: REAL ESTATE<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

����� Improved<br />

Strong Strong<br />

monetization<br />

monetization<br />

visibility visibility<br />

RoA, RoE<br />

Multiple<br />

revenue<br />

streams<br />

<strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong>


11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong>: <strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong><br />

Page No.<br />

Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong> ................................................................4-11<br />

Strong monetization visibility.......................................................................... 12-15<br />

ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13 .................................... 16-17<br />

Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger for the stock ...........18<br />

Key headwinds ................................................................................................ 19-21<br />

Valuation and view .......................................................................................... 22-26<br />

Background............................................................................................................27<br />

Annexure-I: Project location .......................................................................... 28-31<br />

Financials and valuation ................................................................................. 32-33<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

2


BSE SENSEX S&P CNX BLOOMBERG REUTERS<br />

17,729 5,310 OBER IN OEBO.BO<br />

Y/E MARCH 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />

Net Sales (Rs b) 7.8 10.4 13.9 24.4<br />

EBITDA (Rs b) 4.7 6.0 8.0 15.6<br />

NP (Rs b) 4.6 5.2 6.5 11.3<br />

EPS (Rs) 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6<br />

EPS Growth (%) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />

BV/Share (Rs) 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9<br />

P/E (x) 16.1 14.3 11.4 6.5<br />

P/BV (x) 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5<br />

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 9.7 7.2 3.3<br />

EV/ Sales (x) 9.0 5.6 4.1 2.1<br />

RoE (%) 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4<br />

RoCE (%) 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1<br />

KEY FINANCIALS<br />

Shares Outstanding (m) 328.2<br />

Market Cap (Rs b) 73.9<br />

Market Cap (US$ b) 1.6<br />

Past 3 yrs. Sales Growth (%) 34.5<br />

Past 3 yrs. NP Growth (%) 79.5<br />

Dividend Payout (%) 7.0<br />

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3<br />

STOCK DATA<br />

16-W High/Low Range (Rs) 307/220<br />

Major Shareholders (as of December 2010) (%)<br />

Promoters 78.5<br />

Foreign 9.4<br />

Institutions 1.0<br />

Others 11.1<br />

Average Daily Turnover<br />

Volume ('000 shares) 1,397.3<br />

Value (Rs million) 400.4<br />

1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%) 0/-/-<br />

1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%) -8/-/-<br />

STOCK PERFORMANCE (SINCE 19 OCTOBER 2010)<br />

320<br />

290<br />

260<br />

230<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Sensex - Rebased<br />

200<br />

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11<br />

<strong>Premium</strong> <strong>play</strong><br />

SECTOR: REAL ESTATE<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Rs225 Buy<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> (ORL) is a Mumbai-focused real estate developer. It enjoys<br />

high brand equity and is able to command premium pricing across<br />

product segments. This coupled with low-cost land bank, sound<br />

financials, and high cash flow visibility make it an attractive <strong>play</strong> on the<br />

Mumbai market. <strong>The</strong> stock trades at 27% discount to FY12E NAV of Rs310.<br />

Buy for 38% upside.<br />

Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong>: ORL has ~21.4msf of fullypaid<br />

land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format<br />

integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market<br />

due to its (1) diversified products, (2) superior product quality and (3)<br />

management goodwill, which enable it to command a pricing premium<br />

over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low cost land<br />

parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai.<br />

High visibility on land bank monetization: Most of ORL's RE<br />

projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook<br />

is buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully<br />

monetize its land bank over 6-7 years as its healthy cash position and<br />

hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This provides high cash<br />

flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL<br />

enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it<br />

from vagaries of the RE cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash<br />

balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge opportunity to further<br />

acquire value-augmenting projects.<br />

Triggers and headwinds to the stock: Key triggers: (1) Prudent<br />

use of surplus cash to augment land bank, (2) Broad-based recovery<br />

in commercial and retail markets, and (3) Resolution of pending issues<br />

(e.g. hotel properties in Juhu). Possible headwinds: (1) Land acquisition<br />

challenges due to high cost of land in Mumbai, and (2) Possible hurdles<br />

in JDA/SRA-linked projects.<br />

Stock at 27% discount to FY12E NAV; Buy: We expect ORL to post<br />

35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13. We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at<br />

Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on NPV-based<br />

valuation of its land bank. ORL stock is attractively valued at 11.4x<br />

FY12E EPS of Rs19.8, 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6 and ~27% discount<br />

to FY12E NAV. We expect ORL to trade at least at par to NAV due to<br />

(1) premium brand equity, (2) strong near term cash flow visibility, and<br />

(3) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash. Buy with a target<br />

price of Rs310, 38% upside from current levels.<br />

3


Mumbai is the most resilient<br />

RE market in India in terms<br />

of returns on investment<br />

Medium to long term macro<br />

outlook for Mumbai RE to be<br />

buoyant for products with an<br />

attractive value proposition<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Distinguished Mumbai-focused <strong>play</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

ORL has ~21.4msf of fully-paid land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format<br />

integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market due to its (1) diversified<br />

products, (2) superior product quality and (3) management goodwill, which enable it to<br />

command a pricing premium over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low<br />

cost land parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai.<br />

Mumbai, the most resilient RE market<br />

Mumbai is the most resilient and rewarding RE market in India in terms of returns on<br />

investment, product positioning and depth of demand for RE development across segments<br />

and price points. After the global downturn, the Mumbai market was at the forefront of<br />

recovery. With steady demand, starting with affordable housing and eventually moving to<br />

the luxury housing vertical, property prices have not only rebounded, but surpassed the<br />

pre-downturn peaks in several micro-markets.<br />

However, the recent sharp price appreciation and a bloated supply pipeline has resulted in<br />

a cyclical downturn in key locations, particularly Central Mumbai. Still, we expect the<br />

medium to long term macro outlook for Mumbai RE to be buoyant for products with<br />

attractive value proposition. This is because Mumbai's fundamental growth catalysts remain<br />

unaltered:<br />

� Strong GDP growth, rapid urbanization and improving affordability<br />

� Mumbai's status as India's financial capital (contributing more than 5% of GDP)<br />

� Favorable demography with an expanding segment of young, upwardly mobile<br />

professionals<br />

� A large base of discerning, high-income customers.<br />

Mumbai - a lucrative RE market with superior return potential<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

4


Hyderabad<br />

8%<br />

Chennai<br />

6%<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Between october-10 to September-11, Mumbai contributed ~25% of India's RE volume<br />

(number of units) and ~29% of RE capital value of top 7 cities of India.<br />

City-wise sale value (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11 City-wise absorption volume (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11<br />

Bangalore<br />

13%<br />

Pune<br />

12%<br />

NCR<br />

32%<br />

Mumbai<br />

29%<br />

Chennai<br />

6%<br />

Hyderabad<br />

4%<br />

Bangalore<br />

12%<br />

Pune<br />

18%<br />

NCR<br />

35%<br />

Mumbai<br />

25%<br />

ORL: An attractive Mumbai <strong>play</strong><br />

We believe ORL offers an attractive <strong>play</strong> on the lucrative Mumbai RE opportunity given<br />

its following favorable factors:<br />

#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai<br />

#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill<br />

#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins<br />

#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further.<br />

#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai<br />

Almost 94% of ORL's saleable area (~21.4msf) is in Mumbai with ~69% of its land bank<br />

located in prime locations in the western suburbs. Along with prime locations and synergies<br />

from integrated and a diversified product-mix, ORL's emphasis on contemporary design<br />

and quality construction helps it to enjoy premium value for its development. We believe<br />

ORL is well placed to benefit from the superior return potential of Mumbai market.<br />

94% of ORL's land bank is concentrated in Mumbai ORL's products straddle diverse segments<br />

Central<br />

Suburbs<br />

15%<br />

Island City<br />

10%<br />

Pune<br />

6%<br />

Western<br />

Suburbs<br />

69%<br />

Hospitality<br />

9%<br />

Retail<br />

4%<br />

Commercial<br />

20%<br />

Social infra<br />

9%<br />

Source: Liases Foras/MOSL<br />

Residential<br />

58%<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

5


ORL has a proven track<br />

record and rich experience<br />

in the Mumbai RE market<br />

A strong management track<br />

record and transparent<br />

corporate structure make<br />

ORL a preferred developer<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill<br />

ORL's promoters have a proven track record and rich experience in the Mumbai RE<br />

market, having delivered ~5msf of RE development in 33 projects over the past three<br />

decades. During the past couple of years alone, ORL delivered 2.2msf, indicating robust<br />

traction in execution.<br />

Key projects delivered by ORL<br />

Projects Location Type Year of delivery Area (msf)<br />

Plazo (Ghuman Villa) Juhu Residential Sep-01 0.02<br />

Rehabilitation Project Goregaon Residential May-02 0.06<br />

Beachwood House Juhu Residential Jan-05 0.03<br />

Crest Khar Residential May-06 0.02<br />

Seawind Juhu Residential Oct-06 0.02<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods Goregaon Residential May-08 0.60<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Springs Andheri Residential Jan-10 0.64<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Townhouse Goregaon Residential Jun-10 0.04<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Chambers Andheri Commercial May-04 0.09<br />

Commerz - I Goregaon Commercial Mar-08 0.40<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Goregaon Retail Mar-08 0.55<br />

<strong>The</strong> Westin Goregaon Hotel Apr-10 0.38<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> International School Goregaon School Nov-10 0.31<br />

Total 3.16<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

ORL's integrated development and superior product positioning have given it a strong<br />

brand image. We believe ORL is well placed to capitalize the trend of customer preference<br />

for (1) integrated development, (2) quality construction and (3) goodwill of the developer.<br />

This explains why ORL has been consistently booking sales of ~455 units a year over the<br />

past five financial years.<br />

Strong management goodwill<br />

Lack of transparency and corporate governance issues are key concerns in the RE sector.<br />

We believe ORL is favorably placed in this regard given (a) transparency in land acquisition,<br />

(b) uncomplicated corporate structure and (c) developer mindset.<br />

(a) Transparency in land acquisition: <strong>The</strong> ORL management has demonstrated a prudent<br />

and transparent approach in acquiring its land. ORL has acquired ~140 acres across five<br />

projects since 1998. All the land parcels (a) are fully paid for, (b) have clear titles, and<br />

(c) enjoy transparent cost and ownership disclosures.<br />

(b) Uncomplicated corporate structure: ORL has a simple corporate structure with<br />

most of its land holding through wholly owned subsidiaries. We believe this transparent<br />

structure augurs well for better corporate governance.<br />

(c) Developer mindset: ORL has a relatively limited but high quality land bank, expected<br />

to get monetized over 6-7 years. Over the past 3-4 years, ORL focused on converting its<br />

land parcels into landmark developments instead of augmenting its land bank at unreasonable<br />

prices. We believe such a development mindset is reflected in its product quality and<br />

premium brand equity, which differentiates the company from the rest.<br />

6


� ORL holds the Garden City<br />

projects excluding<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />

� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Private Ltd<br />

holds <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />

� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Constructions<br />

Private Ltd holds Andheri<br />

and Mulund properties.<br />

� Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> holds the<br />

Worli properties.<br />

� Siddhivinayak Realties<br />

Private Ltd holds the<br />

disputed Juhu Hotel.<br />

� Sangam City Township<br />

Private Ltd, a JV between<br />

ORL, DB <strong>Realty</strong> and the<br />

Avinash Bhosale group,<br />

holds the Pune project.<br />

Outsourcing non-core<br />

activities to reputed partners<br />

releases management<br />

bandwidth for core activities<br />

ORL’s average<br />

acquisition cost of land<br />

has been only ~Rs35m/acre<br />

11 February 2011<br />

ORL's corporate structure<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Construction<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Siddhivinayak<br />

Realties<br />

Private Ltd<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Kingston<br />

Property<br />

Services<br />

Private Ltd<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Limited<br />

Sangam City<br />

Township<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Kingston<br />

Hospitality<br />

& Developers<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Expression<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Private Ltd<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100%<br />

50% 100%<br />

Perspective<br />

Realties<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Oasis<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Unincorporated<br />

Unincorporated JV<br />

JV<br />

Zaco<br />

Aviation<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Low execution risk: ORL outsources most of its key projects, delegates non-core activities<br />

such as design and construction to long-term service providers. ORL has developed a<br />

strong relationship with internationally acclaimed architects like SCDA (Singapore), Bentel<br />

& Associates (South Africa), HOK (Los Angeles), and domestic contractors like L&T.<br />

We believe its outsourcing model mitigates the execution risk involved in large format<br />

projects and leaves its management free to pursue activities such as land acquisition and<br />

sales and marketing.<br />

#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins<br />

ORL's management has been prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Over 1998-2005,<br />

ORL acquired four key land parcels for Rs4.7b: (1) ~84 acres at Goregaon Garden City,<br />

(2) ~24 acres for Andheri East Splendor, (3) ~7 acres for Andheri-West Springs and (4)<br />

~19 acres in Mulund. Its average acquisition cost of these city-centric land parcels has<br />

been ~Rs35m/acre. After 2005, Mumbai's land prices went through a strong up-cycle,<br />

impacting margins of most RE developers involved in land acquisition through the direct<br />

route. However, ORL is strongly placed with a low cost land bank that has monetization<br />

potential over the next 6-7 years.<br />

Low cost historical land bank<br />

Particulars Garden City, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Springs,<br />

Goregaon Andheri Mulund Andheri (W)<br />

Land area (acres) 84 24 19 7<br />

Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 317<br />

Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2005<br />

Cost of inherent FSI* (Rs/sf) 292 994 2,695 1,039<br />

* Doesn’t include benefit from incremental FSI from TDR, parking scheme and loading<br />

Triumph<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Private Ltd<br />

After 2005 ORL has not acquired land through the direct route but adopted a different<br />

approach to augment its land bank. In 2007, it entered into a joint development agreement<br />

(JDA) with a local developer (Sahana Developer) to develop the saleable area of a slum<br />

7


Land acquisition<br />

through the JDA/JV route<br />

renders opportunity to<br />

leverage on the brand<br />

Low land cost is attributable<br />

to historical acquisition<br />

over 1998-2005<br />

ORL is expected to post<br />

45-80% operating margins<br />

for its Mumbai-centric land,<br />

resulting in superior RoE<br />

Large integrated projects<br />

offer a superior product mix<br />

and product synergy<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

rehabilitation project in Worli. <strong>The</strong> project offers ORL a lucrative proposition, since (1)<br />

ORL will have a 25-40% share in net revenue (net of construction and S&M costs)<br />

depending on actual realization of the project, (2) ORL hasn't incurred upfront capital<br />

expenditure (only a Rs3b refundable deposit, to be adjusted against revenue share), (3)<br />

the JDA partner is responsible for related SRA activities such as evacuation and<br />

rehabilitation construction (a significant portion of the work has been completed).<br />

In such an agreement, even in the most pessimistic scenario, ORL stands to profit. <strong>The</strong><br />

agreement allows ORL to leverage its brand strength with minimal upfront capital<br />

investment and low operational and market risks. We expect ORL to clinch many such<br />

deals with similarly attractive propositions due to (1) its strong execution track-record and<br />

(2) premium branding, which make it a preferred partner for small and unorganised land<br />

owners.<br />

Low cost land parcels ensure superior margins<br />

ORL's existing land bank of 21.4msf (~130 acres) is located in Mumbai (western suburbs,<br />

Central Mumbai) and Pune, and is suitable for large format development. ORL has<br />

purchased land outright for most of its projects. We believe the management has been<br />

prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Except for Pune (which is still in the land aggregation<br />

stage) and Worli (where ORL has entered into a JDA), the remaining land parcels have<br />

been acquired over 1998-2005, at very lucrative prices. Large low-cost land parcels with<br />

extended monetization, and a huge appreciation of property prices over the past five years<br />

provide ORL with an opportunity to command superior profit margins in such projects.<br />

ORL's superior margins<br />

Particulars Garden City, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor, <strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica, Oasis <strong>Realty</strong>,<br />

Goregaon Andheri Mulund Worli<br />

Mode of land acquisition Outright Purchase Outright Purchase Outright Purchase JDA<br />

Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2007<br />

Land area (acres) 84 24 19 3<br />

Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 Nil<br />

Saleable area (msf) 11.2 3.1 3.2 2.1<br />

ORL's stake (%) 100 100 100 25-40*<br />

Land cost (Rs/sf) 95.6 341.9 691 NIL<br />

Avg. construction cost (Rs/sf)<br />

Other development costs (Rs/sf)<br />

3,500 3,500 3,000 6,000<br />

(Approvals/TDR/ Parking etc) 1,500 1,500 1,000 NIL<br />

Avg. Market price (Rs/sf) 9,500 10,500 7,500 28,000<br />

ORL's premium pricing (Rs/sf) 11,000 12,000 8,500 32,000<br />

ORL's margin (Rs/sf) 5,904 6,658 3,809 26,000<br />

ORL's margin (%) 54 55 45 81<br />

* Profit sharing ratio depending on sale realization Source: Company/MOSL<br />

#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further<br />

ORL is one of the few integrated development <strong>play</strong>ers in Mumbai. Integrated development<br />

offers product synergies and pricing premuim, boosting margins further.<br />

Integrated development offers product synergies...<br />

Most of the ORL's land is suitable for large format development and situated in attractive<br />

city-centric locations which are increasingly gaining customers' preference. This helps<br />

ORL to develop large integrated projects with different product mixes such as schools,<br />

8


Value creation through<br />

large format development<br />

enables ORL to command<br />

premium pricing<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Integrated<br />

development<br />

example<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

hospitals, malls and hotels. It allows the company to (1) position its products better, (2)<br />

leverage synergies between different asset classes and command premium pricing, and<br />

(3) capture strong RE demand at different price points in the project cycle.<br />

...and pricing premium<br />

ORL's integrated land development strategy has started paying off. Over the past 2-3<br />

years, after the early phase of developments, ORL has been receiving a strong response<br />

from customers for subsequent phases of monetization. We believe its transformation of a<br />

location from terra incognita to a destination development and synergies between the<br />

product-mixes of integrated development have boosted its brand image. While initial<br />

developments in its Garden City projects like <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall, Commerz and <strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods<br />

have enhanced the image of Goregaon (E) as a preferred micro-market, its projects at<br />

JVLR, Andheri (E) (Splendor) have boosted demand for subsequent phases. Besides, its<br />

superior construction quality, on-time delivery track-record and quality management add<br />

to the value of its developments. All these factors contribute to ORL's premium pricing.<br />

Approach to land banks: creating value through integrated development<br />

Low cost large<br />

land parcel<br />

Uplifting micromarket's<br />

image and<br />

boosting RE demand<br />

Destination development<br />

in early phases<br />

Integrated<br />

projects<br />

Average land acquisition<br />

cost of Garden City<br />

project is ~Rs100/sf<br />

Product<br />

synergy<br />

Brand creation<br />

through superior<br />

offerings<br />

Garden City at Goregaon (E)<br />

emerged as a preferred<br />

destination<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall,<br />

Commerz,<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods<br />

Pricing premium<br />

Average<br />

realization at<br />

Garden City<br />

grew from<br />

Rs2,500/sf (2004)<br />

to Rs12,000/sf<br />

(currently)<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Garden City: Achieves landmark status in Goregaon, Mumbai<br />

A key example of integrated development has been its <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City projects, a<br />

mixed-use development in Goregaon (E), in Mumbai's western suburbs. ORL acquired<br />

~84 acres of land here for Rs1.07b between 1998-05. <strong>The</strong> project has saleable area of<br />

11.2msf of which ORL has already delivered projects on ~2.3msf with the development<br />

of <strong>Oberoi</strong> Woods (residential, 0.7msf), Commerz I (0.4msf), <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall (0.55msf) and<br />

an international school (0.3msf). <strong>The</strong> project, located on the Western Express Highway,<br />

is beside a "no-development" green zone and offers a permanent view of greenery. <strong>The</strong><br />

later phases of development will comprise residential, office/retail space, a hotel and<br />

social infrastructure such as a hospital and a school. Projects on ~5msf are ongoing and<br />

projects are being planned on the remaining 3.9msf. Garden City has achieved a status<br />

of destination project due its attractive location and benefits from integrated offerings.<br />

Consequently, we expect ORL's upcoming developments here to command premium<br />

pricing compared with its peers.<br />

9


Integrated development plan at <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City<br />

Completed<br />

projects<br />

Ongoing<br />

projects<br />

Planned<br />

projects<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Residential<br />

(~6.6msf)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Woods,<br />

Townhouse<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Exquisite<br />

(Phases I and II)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Exquisite<br />

(Phase III)<br />

Integrated layout of <strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City project<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />

Commerz<br />

and Hotel<br />

Westin<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Commerz (II)<br />

- Phase (I)<br />

Western Express Highway<br />

Commerz (II) -<br />

Phase (II)<br />

Office Space<br />

(~3msf)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Garden City<br />

Retail<br />

(~0.6msf)<br />

Commerz I <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />

Commerz II<br />

(Phases I and II)<br />

Exquisite- 3<br />

Exquisite- 1<br />

Exquisite- 2<br />

Hosipital<br />

Hospitality<br />

(~0.4msf)<br />

<strong>The</strong> Westin<br />

Mumbai -<br />

Garden City<br />

Town House<br />

Educational<br />

Complex<br />

Social<br />

infrastructure<br />

(~1.6msf)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

International<br />

School<br />

Hospital and<br />

education<br />

complex<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Woods<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

International<br />

School<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

10


Key ongoing projects at Garden City<br />

Commerz (II)- Phase I and Phase II Exquisite- steady progress in construction<br />

Integrated development at Garden City is in an advanced stage of monetization<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Phase II site<br />

Phase I site<br />

� We expect phase I of Commerz-II to be operational by<br />

FY12-13, while phase II is likely to be ready by FY14.<br />

� ORL has already sold ~419 units in Exquisite I. Exquisite-<br />

I is likely to be delivered in FY12-13, while it plans to launch<br />

Exquisite II in 4QFY11.<br />

� We estimate ORL to complete the monetization of Garden<br />

City by FY16-17.<br />

� Once completed, the project is likely to generate ~Rs83b<br />

of total residential sales and ~Rs6b of steady-state annuity<br />

income. Garden City accounts for ~60% of ORL's GAV.<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Town house <strong>Oberoi</strong> International School<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall (March 2008)<br />

Commerz I (March 2008) <strong>Oberoi</strong> Wood (May 2008)<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

11


Hassle free land banks are<br />

suitably placed for faster<br />

monetization<br />

Strong residential sales and<br />

steady annuity income are<br />

expected to generate robust<br />

operating cash flow<br />

11 February 2011<br />

High visibility on land bank monetization<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Most of ORL's RE projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook is<br />

buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully monetize its land bank over 6-<br />

7 years as its healthy cash position and hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This<br />

provides high cash flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL<br />

enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it from vagaries of the RE<br />

cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge<br />

opportunity to further acquire value-augmenting projects.<br />

Hassle-free land bank increases certainty of monetization<br />

We expect RE demand outlook in Mumbai to be buoyant in the medium term, especially<br />

for mid-income housing, attractively positioned products and preferred micro-markets like<br />

the western and central suburbs. This has witness further boost from rising demand for<br />

office space in such locations. About 84% of ORL's saleable area is in attractive citycentric<br />

areas of the western and central suburbs, which have potential to emerge as<br />

destination projects due to their large size and mixed use development. Most of the land is<br />

fully paid and available for development with approvals largely in place, which gives<br />

reasonable certainty to execution. <strong>The</strong>se factors provide ORL with steady cash flow<br />

visibility over five years.<br />

Strong development pipeline to drive monetization<br />

Assets under sale model FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E<br />

Residential (msf) 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1<br />

Commercial (msf) - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1<br />

Retail (msf) - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1<br />

Total 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.3<br />

Leased assets (cumulative)<br />

Commercial (msf) 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.5<br />

Retail (msf) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5<br />

Total 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.0<br />

Hotel (rooms) 269 269 269 269 314 314<br />

High visibility of cash flow (Rs b)<br />

Particulars FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E<br />

Residential sales 11.7 14.3 19.5 23.0 33.8 28.9<br />

Commercial and retail sales 0.0 1.1 2.8 7.2 6.3 1.9<br />

Rental income (commercial and retail) 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.0<br />

Hotel business 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1<br />

Social infrastructure business 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0<br />

Total inflow 13.2 17.4 25.1 34.8 46.1 37.0<br />

% contribution from rental income 12 12 11 13 13 17<br />

% contribution from residential sales 88 82 78 66 73 78<br />

Construction capex 5.8 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.3 4.6<br />

Residential 3.1 6.0 7.1 8.4 8.5 4.5<br />

Non-residential 2.7 4.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.1<br />

Operating expenses 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9<br />

Net operating cash pre tax 7.1 6.8 14.1 23.6 35.8 31.4<br />

Tax expense 1.8 1.8 4.2 7.1 10.7 9.4<br />

Net operating cash post tax 5.3 5.0 9.9 16.5 25.1 22.0<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

12


ORL's development plans are integrated in nature<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Project Name Status Location Saleable Expected GAV/Share Land cost<br />

area (msf) completion date (Rs) (Rs m)<br />

Goregaon (E) 10.5 223 1,060<br />

Exquisite-1 Ongoing Residential 1.4 Nov-13 30<br />

Exquisite-2 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Mar-14 37<br />

Exquisite-3 Ongoing Residential 2.5 May-14 37<br />

Townhouse/Garden City Completed Residential 0.0 Mar-10 2<br />

Commerz I Completed Commercial 0.4 Mar-08 16<br />

Commerz II – Phase I Ongoing Commercial 0.7 Mar-12 21<br />

Commerz II – Phase II Ongoing Commercial 1.7 Mar-12 41<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Completed Retail 0.6 Mar-08 22<br />

<strong>The</strong> Westin Ongoing Hotel 0.4 Mar-10 9<br />

International School Ongoing Social Infrastructure 0.3 Mar-10<br />

Education complex Planned Social Infrastructure 0.9 Apr-11 9<br />

Hospital Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Oct-10<br />

Andheri - East 3.1 34 317<br />

Splendor-1 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Dec-10 5<br />

Splendor-2 Ongoing Residential 0.3 Jun-12 6<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor-1 Ongoing Commercial 0.3 Feb-13 6<br />

Splendor IT Tower Planned Commercial 0.1 Aug-12 5<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor -2 Planned Commercial 0.7 May-13 10<br />

Splendor School Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Apr-11 2<br />

Mulund - West 3.2 78 2,200<br />

Exotica-1 Planned Residential 1.6 Aug-13 17<br />

Exotica-2 Planned Residential 1.6 Sep-13 61<br />

Worli 2.1 27 JDA*<br />

Oasis Ongoing Residential 1.5 Dec-14 20<br />

Oasis - Commercial Ongoing Commercial 0.2 Dec-12 2<br />

Oasis - Mall Planned Retail 0.1 Dec-12 4<br />

Oasis Planned Hotel 0.2 Dec-14 3<br />

Pune 1.3 14 In progress<br />

Sangam City Planned Residential 0.8 Dec-15 8<br />

Sangam City Planned Commercial 0.3 Dec-15 3<br />

Sangam City Planned Retail 0.3 Dec-15 3<br />

Juhu Planned Juhu 1.2 1<br />

Total 21.4 377<br />

* Refundable security desposit of Rs3b Source: Company/MOSL<br />

ORL is likely to be a<br />

key beneficiary of<br />

the commercial<br />

real estate recovery<br />

Commercial recovery to boost annuity cash flow<br />

ORL is likely to be a key beneficiary of recovery in the commercial and retail verticals,<br />

early signs of which are visible. While ORL's annuity income helps to compensate for the<br />

periodic volatility in residential sales, we estimate steady growth in revenue contribution<br />

from annuity assets, with (1) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail businesses<br />

and (2) new projects becoming operational in the office, retail and hotel verticals over next<br />

two to three years.<br />

<strong>The</strong> commercial RE market has been showing early signs of recovery in key micromarkets.<br />

Mumbai, being a frontrunner in this recovery, has registered steady improvement<br />

in commercial leasing with ~10msf of lease transactions during 2010. Besides, in the past<br />

couple of years, demand has been shifting from central business districts (CBDs) like<br />

Nariman Point and Central Mumbai towards suburban business districts like Andheri and<br />

Goregaon. This is due to (1) exorbitant rentals and unavailability of Grade A office space<br />

in the CBDs and (2) improved infrastructure near the western and central suburbs and<br />

their proximity to the airport.<br />

13


11 February 2011<br />

Front-loaded<br />

cash flow offers<br />

investment comfort<br />

City centric<br />

commercial projects will<br />

witness strong demand<br />

We expect annuity income to<br />

generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11<br />

(v/s Rs0.8b in FY10),<br />

~Rs2b in FY12 and<br />

~Rs2.9b in FY13<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Cash flow during FY11-16 is expected to contribute 67% of GAV<br />

We expect ORL to monetize its land bank over 6-7 years, providing it with strong frontended<br />

cash flow unlike many RE companies. Our NAV estimate suggests ORL will<br />

derive ~67% of its GAV from next five years cash flow, which is significantly high<br />

compared with its peers. Front-loaded valuation makes ORL one of the most attractive<br />

<strong>play</strong>s in the RE sector.<br />

Annual value contribution (%)<br />

8<br />

10<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Expect ORL commercial projects to witness strong response<br />

ORL has a strong pipeline of annuity projects of ~5.4msf (~1msf already operational and<br />

~4.4msf to be operational over 3-4 years) largely located in the western suburbs. ORL's<br />

2.4msf of commercial space in the Goregaon Garden City, Commerz II -Phase1 (0.7msf)<br />

and Phase2 (1.7msf) are likely to become operational in FY12 and FY13 respectively. We<br />

expect the projects to attract a strong response due to (a) a robust demand outlook, driven<br />

mainly by MNCs, law firms (on account of the shifting of the High Court to the western<br />

suburbs) and film studios (proximity to Film City) in Goregaon, (b) limited supply of grade-<br />

A office space in the vicinity and (c) proximity to hotels and the airport. ORL's strong<br />

client base with its expansion plan will provide further impetus to the leasing momentum.<br />

We estimate the company will generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11 (v/s Rs0.8b in FY10), ~Rs2b in<br />

FY12 and ~Rs2.9b in FY13 from its commercial, retail, hotel and school projects.<br />

Strong momentum expected in annuity income<br />

15<br />

20<br />

Till FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Capitalized<br />

value post<br />

FY18<br />

Annuity Asset (msf) Commercial/RetailSale (msf)<br />

Hotel Rooms (no) Annuity Revenue(Rs b)<br />

269 269 269 269<br />

2.9<br />

2.0<br />

2.2<br />

1.6<br />

0.7<br />

0.0<br />

0.9<br />

0.2<br />

1.2<br />

0.3 0.5<br />

15<br />

4.7<br />

9<br />

2.7<br />

2<br />

0.4<br />

3.0<br />

21<br />

394 394<br />

6.2<br />

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16<br />

5.9<br />

0.3<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

14


11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Multiple revenue streams provide resilience to the down cycle<br />

ORL's strongly diversified product-mix (the residential vertical constitutes ~60% of its<br />

land bank, and 40% is divided among commercial, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure<br />

projects such as schools and hospitals), means that it is poised to generate a quality mix of<br />

revenue streams. ORL has maintained a robust balance in its cash flows by following sale<br />

and lease models for its ~5.4msf of commercial/retail assets. This provides it with multiple<br />

revenue streams, making it resilient to RE cyclicality.<br />

Multiple revenue streams insulate ORL from a down cycle Annuity income mix (Rs m)<br />

0.7<br />

A balanced cash flow<br />

mix offers resilience<br />

during a down cycle<br />

Annuity income (Rsb)<br />

RE sales (Rsb)<br />

3.5<br />

0.8<br />

7.0<br />

1.6<br />

8.8<br />

2.0<br />

11.8<br />

2.9<br />

21.5<br />

FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />

We expect the company<br />

to generate ~Rs10b<br />

of operating cash flow<br />

by FY12<br />

288<br />

450<br />

Commercial-Lease Retail-Lease Hotel Social Infra<br />

325<br />

508<br />

315<br />

611<br />

559<br />

497<br />

662<br />

641<br />

235<br />

1,050<br />

695<br />

729<br />

FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />

396<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Surplus cash to augment land bank potential<br />

We expect ORL's limited land bank of ~21.4msf, to take 6-7 years to be monetized.<br />

Hence, going forward, the company is expected to acquire a significant amount of land to<br />

maintain its growth momentum. In this connection, the comfort factor is that ORL has<br />

~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet. Moreover, robust cash flow visibility from its<br />

ongoing/upcoming projects (we expect the company to generate ~Rs10b of operating<br />

cash flow by FY12) and zero gross debt provide ORL with a healthy financial position to<br />

augment its land bank through value accretive acquisitions. While historically the company<br />

acquired land through outright purchase, it is also evaluating opportunities in the<br />

redevelopment vertical and through the JDA route, in which, we expect, ORL has strong<br />

success potential due to its premium brand and superior execution track record.<br />

Visibility of strong operating cash flow an opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects<br />

Free cash inflow (Rs b)<br />

Cummulative till previous year (Rs b)<br />

5<br />

5<br />

Net cash as on<br />

March<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

20<br />

5<br />

15<br />

IPO proceeds FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E<br />

25<br />

5<br />

20<br />

35<br />

10<br />

25<br />

51<br />

16<br />

35<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

15


Exquisite-I (Garden City,<br />

Goregaon) and Splendor-I<br />

(Andheri E) are primary<br />

revenue drivers for FY11<br />

We expect the Mulund and<br />

Worli projects to contribute<br />

significantly from FY12<br />

11 February 2011<br />

ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

We expect ORL's revenue to grow from Rs7.8b in FY10 to Rs24.4b in FY13, implying<br />

FY10-13 CAGR of ~46%. <strong>The</strong> growth will be led mainly by revenue from residential<br />

projects and steady annuity income growth from its commercial, retail, hotel and other<br />

social infrastructure verticals. In FY11, Exquisite-I (Garden City, Goregaon) and Splendor-<br />

I (Andheri-E) will be primary revenue drivers (contributing ~70% of revenue). We expect<br />

its projects in Mulund (Exotica) and Worli (Oasis) to contribute significantly from FY12.<br />

Expect revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13<br />

0.8<br />

Key projects expected to contribute to revenue*<br />

191%<br />

2.4<br />

117%<br />

5.1<br />

Revenue (Rs b) Grow th Rate<br />

-17%<br />

4.3<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

ORL's primary focus has historically been residential development. However, we expect<br />

steady revenue growth from non-residential projects as ORL has a rich pipeline of nonresidential<br />

projects (~8msf) and annuity projects (~5.4msf) (~4.4msf will be operational<br />

over 3-4 years) largely located in Mumbai's western suburbs. We expect steady growth in<br />

revenue from its non-residential projects, going forward, with (1) a broad-based recovery<br />

in commercial and retail businesses and (2) new projects becoming operational in the<br />

office, retail and hotel verticals. We estimate the contribution from its non-residential<br />

projects to increase from 11% in FY10 to 15% in FY11, 24% in FY12 and 26% in FY13.<br />

84%<br />

7.8<br />

32% 34%<br />

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />

Project Name Location Asset Class Saleable / Expected total Revenue GAV/share<br />

Leasable revenue (Rsm) Contribution (Rs m) (Rs)<br />

10.4<br />

13.9<br />

area (msf) FY11 FY12<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Spring Andheri West Residential 0.64 6,911 855 - 1<br />

Townhouse/Garden City Goregaon-East Residential 0.04 738 360 378 2<br />

Splendor-1 Andheri - East Residential 1.28 13,895 3,203 - 5<br />

Exquisite-1 Goregaon - East Residential 1.37 18,545 4,088 5,433 30<br />

Splendor-2 Andheri - East Residential 0.29 3,345 319 905 6<br />

Exquisite-2 Goregaon - East Residential 1.33 21,216 - 733 37<br />

Exotica-1 Mulund - West Residential 1.62 14,355 - 1,337 20<br />

Exotica-2 Mulund - West Residential 1.58 15,299 - 332 17<br />

Oasis Worli Residential 0.54 19,647 - 1,563 37<br />

Commerz I Goregaon-East Commercial 0.365 315 497 16<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Goregaon-East Retail 0.553 611 662 22<br />

<strong>The</strong> Westin Goregaon (E) Hotel 269 rooms 559 641 9<br />

76%<br />

24.4<br />

10,309 12,480 201<br />

* Only contribution from larger projects Source: Company/MOSL<br />

We expect a steady increase<br />

in revenue contribution from<br />

the non-residential vertical<br />

16


Revenue: non-residential verticals to increase contribution (FY11-13)<br />

Retail<br />

6%<br />

Commercial<br />

3%<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Hotel<br />

5%<br />

Social<br />

Infra<br />

1%<br />

EBITDA margins are<br />

expected to improve to<br />

64% due to the high-margin<br />

Worli project<br />

Net margin is expected to<br />

decline from 58% in FY10<br />

to 47% in FY13 mainly due<br />

to a higher tax rate<br />

Residential<br />

85%<br />

Commercial<br />

11%<br />

Retail<br />

6%<br />

Hotel<br />

5%<br />

Social<br />

Infra<br />

2%<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

ORL to post earnings of 35% CAGR over FY10-13<br />

We expect 35% CAGR in ORL's PAT, from Rs4.6b in FY10 to Rs11.3b in FY13. This will<br />

be driven by (1) strong contribution from the residential vertical, and (2) higher rental<br />

income with new properties becoming operational. Historically, ORL has enjoyed high<br />

EBITDA margins due to its presence in attractive locations and its ability to command a<br />

premium. We expect ORL's EBITDA margins will improve from 60% in FY10 to 64% in<br />

FY13 due to (1) monetization of later stages of integrated development, which offers<br />

higher realization, and (2) contribution from its Worli project. However, net margin could<br />

decline from 58% in FY10 to 47% in FY13 mainly due to (1) a higher tax rate after the<br />

abolition of 80IB, and (2) possible debt finance which could invite interest costs, hitherto<br />

unseen in ORL's financial statements.<br />

EBITDA margin to increase after contribution from Worli project<br />

0.4<br />

52%<br />

1.2<br />

50%<br />

2.6<br />

2.5<br />

Expect net profit CAGR of 36% over FY10-13<br />

Residential<br />

76%<br />

4.7<br />

Retail<br />

5%<br />

Commercial<br />

16%<br />

Residential<br />

74%<br />

FY11 FY12 FY13<br />

44%<br />

EBITDA(Rsb) EBITDA Margin<br />

58%<br />

60%<br />

58%<br />

6.0<br />

Hotel<br />

3%<br />

Social<br />

Infra<br />

2%<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />

43%<br />

0.4<br />

PAT(Rsb)<br />

NET Margin<br />

33%<br />

0.8<br />

58%<br />

3.0<br />

59% 58%<br />

2.5<br />

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E<br />

4.6<br />

50%<br />

5.2<br />

58%<br />

8.0<br />

47%<br />

6.5<br />

64%<br />

15.6<br />

47%<br />

11.3<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

17


Value unlocking is<br />

expected from deployment<br />

of surplus cash<br />

ORL is well placed to<br />

leverage the up-cycle of the<br />

commercial/retail vertical<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger<br />

for the stock<br />

Key triggers for the stock are: (1) ORL's prudent use of surplus cash to augment its land<br />

bank, (2) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail market, and (3) traction in<br />

pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu) and enhancement of incentives in existing projects<br />

(Worli and Pune).<br />

Prudent use of surplus cash to augment land bank<br />

Despite a high quality land bank, ORL faces a risk of limited long-term potential of its land<br />

parcels. However, ORL has one of the most attractive balance sheets among RE companies<br />

with ~Rs15b of surplus cash. Moreover, its ongoing and upcoming project pipeline provide<br />

with a strong cash flow visibility over the next 5-6 years. We estimate an incremental net<br />

cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (total surplus cash balance estimated at Rs25b by FY12).<br />

We believe a judicious deployment of this surplus cash in value accretive land acquisition<br />

would be a key trigger for the stock.<br />

Broad-based recovery in the commercial, retail market<br />

ORL has ~1msf of operational assets in the commercial and retail segments along with<br />

~4.4msf of projects in the pipeline, which are to be operational over 3-4 years. <strong>The</strong>refore,<br />

with the ongoing recovery in commercial RE, we believe ORL is well placed to leverage<br />

on the up-cycle of the commercial/retail vertical, which would favorably impact its annuity<br />

income.<br />

Traction in pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu), enhancement of<br />

incentives in existing projects (Worli and Pune)<br />

<strong>The</strong> ORL management indicated that OCPL (ORL's 100% subsidiary), through its joint<br />

venture SRPL, entered into a purchase agreement with Tulip Hospitality Services in 2005<br />

for a six-acre hotel property in Juhu with ORL's share of the development area being<br />

~1.3msf. But the purchase agreement is under dispute and has been referred to for<br />

arbitration. We value the property at Rs675m, which is the amount paid by the company.<br />

<strong>The</strong>refore, a positive outcome of the arbitration in favor of ORL would be value accretive<br />

for it. Similarly, a possible increase in saleable area in its Worli project (based on higher<br />

FSI allowance for additional land) and the Pune project (since ORL is in the process of<br />

land aggregation), would have a positive impact on its NAV.<br />

18


Increasing land price in<br />

Mumbai could be a key<br />

headwind for ORL’s land<br />

acquisition plans<br />

ORL’s strong surplus cash<br />

renders the ability to<br />

acquire value accretive land<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Key headwinds<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

We believe that the key risks for the company are (1) challenges in land acquisition due to<br />

increasing land costs in Mumbai, (2) possible operational hurdles in JDA/SRA-linked<br />

projects, and (3) over dependence on Mumbai market.<br />

Increasing land prices could exert pressure on margins<br />

Land prices in Mumbai have appreciated sharply over the past 4-5 years, exerting pressure<br />

on developers' margins. ORL has a limited land bank of ~21msf, which we expect will<br />

take 6-7 years to monetize. In the near to medium term, we don't find cause for concern<br />

due to replenishing of the land bank, but ORL needs to focus on augmenting its development<br />

potential significantly to replicate its growth momentum in the long term. ORL's existing<br />

land bank is historical and its attractive acquisition cost is mainly attributed to the pre-2005<br />

RE market, which was before the sharp upswing in prices. After 2007, ORL made no<br />

meaningful land acquisition. <strong>The</strong> company also doesn't have established expertise in the<br />

redevelopment business, which is a key land acquisition route in Mumbai city. Hence, the<br />

rising land price could be a visible headwind for ORL's land acquisition plans.<br />

Sharp increase in land price visible in recent NTC mill auctions<br />

960<br />

1,536<br />

Jupiter Mill<br />

(Mar-05)<br />

Rsm/acre Rs/sf for 2.5x FSI Rs/sf for 4x FSI<br />

918<br />

1,469<br />

Apollo Mills<br />

(Jun-05)<br />

1,580<br />

2,528<br />

Mumbai<br />

Textile (Jun-<br />

05)<br />

2,109<br />

3,375<br />

Source: Industry/MOSL<br />

What mitigates the risk<br />

ORL has one of the most cash rich balance sheets among RE companies with ~Rs15b of<br />

surplus cash. Besides, with strong monetization visibility from its ongoing and upcoming<br />

projects, ORL is likely to generate robust operating cash flow over 6-7 years. We estimate<br />

ORL will generate a surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers it a huge<br />

opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects.<br />

Besides, ORL is better off than other its Mumbai peers, who have entered several high<br />

value land transactions and already leveraged themselves. Hence they are likely to curtail<br />

land acquisition plans in the near term. Consequently, ORL is well placed to capture the<br />

opportunity to acquire land at reasonable costs.<br />

551<br />

Elphinstone<br />

Mill (Jul-05)<br />

3,356<br />

5,369<br />

877<br />

Kohinoor Mill<br />

(Jul-05)<br />

7,588<br />

12,141<br />

1,983<br />

Poddar Mill<br />

(Jul-10)<br />

6,880<br />

11,008<br />

1,798<br />

Bharat Mill<br />

(Aug-10)<br />

19


A stronger balance sheet<br />

compared with its peers and<br />

a market slowdown will offer<br />

an opportunity to acquire<br />

land at reasonable costs<br />

Possible operational risk<br />

at its SRA-linked project<br />

in Worli has vastly<br />

been mitigated<br />

with steady progress<br />

A lack of market<br />

diversification exposes<br />

ORL to the risk of relying on<br />

a single RE market<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Comparative financial strengths of RE developers in Mumbai<br />

-15 -15<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

5 4<br />

Peninsula<br />

**<br />

-2<br />

Gross Debt (Rs b) Net Debt (Rs b)<br />

DB<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

2<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

*As on Mar-09 (DRHP data); ** As on Mar-10 Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Operational hurdles in key projects could have a negative impact<br />

ORL has highlighted operational complications in its key projects, which could be a major<br />

headwind for it. Its ~2.1msf mixed-use Worli land (Oasis) could suffer from operational<br />

and regulatory uncertainties relating to SRA projects and dependence on JDA partners.<br />

Its Pune project (Sangam City) is yet to receive requisite development approvals since<br />

ORL is in the land aggregation stage. We believe defaults or delays could have a negative<br />

impact on its value, since the two projects contribute ~11% of GAV.<br />

What mitigates the risk<br />

ORL's developable area in Worli is in the free-sale area of the SRS project and the land is<br />

free from encumbrances. <strong>The</strong> project has been issued a Letter of Intent (LOI) and<br />

rehabilitation work is on. Hence the project has overcome a significant operation hurdle<br />

and has limited execution challenges.<br />

Dependence on western Mumbai<br />

Almost 94% of ORL's land bank and over 96% of its GAV emerges from its Mumbai<br />

projects, with the western suburbs (projects in Goregaon and Andheri) contributing ~68%<br />

of its GAV. This makes it over-dependent on the RE market of the western suburbs. <strong>The</strong><br />

absence of market diversification exposes ORL to vagaries of a single RE market. <strong>The</strong><br />

recent price appreciation in Mumbai's residential market has resulted in a slow sales<br />

across locations, which could have a negative impact on ORL's monetization velocity and<br />

ability to command premium pricing.<br />

What mitigates the risk<br />

ORL's positioning offers comfort even during the torpidity in RE demand due to:<br />

33<br />

Indiabulls<br />

RE<br />

a) Attractive locations, superior quality make ORL's products preferable: All<br />

ORL's projects are in attractive city-centric locations. <strong>The</strong> projects have good ambience,<br />

greenery and facilities emerging from the product-mix such as schools, hospitals, malls<br />

and hotels in the same land parcel. This enhances a project's attraction and makes it a<br />

preferred destination for home buyers. Besides, ORL's quality construction and premium<br />

offering increase salability.<br />

10<br />

8<br />

Orbit **<br />

7<br />

41<br />

HDIL<br />

38<br />

29<br />

Lodha *<br />

27<br />

20


Product positioning,<br />

attractive location, low cost<br />

land and better holding<br />

capacity offer comfort<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

b) Strong financial position mitigates execution risk: Slow RE demand in Mumbai<br />

can be attributed to buyers' concerns about possible execution challenges developers<br />

could face in the light of a financially tight market. <strong>The</strong> sharp appreciation of Mumbai<br />

property prices also contributed to slow RE demand. However, ORL's zero-debt,<br />

surplus-cash position would mitigate buyers' concerns. ORL's established track record<br />

and strong management goodwill ensure on-time delivery and uninterrupted execution.<br />

Macro economic risks<br />

We have assumed 5% CAGR from FY11 for all projects across cities. However, a decline<br />

in property prices, rise in inflation and interest rate, and change in government regulation<br />

could have a significant impact on our NAV estimate. Due to lack of predictability of such<br />

events we have not incorporated such impacts.<br />

21


Mulund<br />

(W)<br />

21%<br />

Expect ORL to trade at<br />

FY12 NAV of Rs310<br />

Residential projects<br />

contribute ~50% of GAV<br />

while ~36% comes from<br />

commercial/retail properties<br />

Andheri<br />

(E)<br />

9%<br />

Worli<br />

7%<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Pune<br />

4%<br />

Valuation and view<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on<br />

an NPV-based method of valuing its land bank. We expect ORL to trade at par to our<br />

estimated FY12 NAV due to (1) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash, (2) strong<br />

near term cash flow visibility and (3) premium brand equity. Our one year forward target<br />

price for ORL is Rs310. We expect ORL to post 35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13.<br />

ORL is attractively valued at 11.4x FY12E EPS of Rs19.8 and 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6<br />

and ~27.4% discount to our target price of Rs310. Buy.<br />

FY12 NAV calculation<br />

Rs m NAV/share (Rs) % GAV<br />

Residential 73,011 222 59<br />

Commercial (Lease) 25,609 78 21<br />

Commercial (Sale) 8,289 25 7<br />

Retail (Lease) 7,106 22 6<br />

Retail (Sale) 2,047 6 2<br />

Hotels 3,494 11 3<br />

Infra Business+Land holding 4,164 13 3<br />

Gross Asset Value 123,720 377 100<br />

Add: Cash 15,000 46 12<br />

Less: Other Op Exp 9,898 30 8<br />

Tax 27,136 83 22<br />

Net Asset Value 101,686 310 82<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

NAV calculation: Key assumptions<br />

1. Our NAV estimate factors in development plans that will be executed over 6-7 years.<br />

2. 5% CAGR in RE prices across cities and verticals (residential, commercial and retail).<br />

3. 4% CAGR in construction cost for all verticals.<br />

4. Steady state occupancy rates of 90% in the commercial and retail segments.<br />

5. Steady state occupancy rates of 70% in the hospitality segments.<br />

6. Cap rate of 11% in the commercial, retail and hospitality verticals.<br />

7. WACC of 14%.<br />

Western suburbs contribute ~68% Commercial/retail verticals contribute ~Rs130/sh to ORL's GAV of Rs377/sh<br />

Goregaon<br />

(E)<br />

59%<br />

222<br />

Residential<br />

78<br />

Commercial<br />

(Lease)<br />

25 22 6 11 13<br />

Commercial<br />

(Sale)<br />

Retail (Lease)<br />

Retail (Sale)<br />

Hotels<br />

Infra<br />

Business+Land<br />

holding<br />

46 30<br />

Add: Cash<br />

Less: Other Op<br />

Exp<br />

83<br />

Tax<br />

310<br />

NAV<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

22


Value unlocking from<br />

surplus cash could drive<br />

growth potential beyond the<br />

existing land bank<br />

An RoE of 22% and 0.2x<br />

(of cash balance) leverage<br />

could render ~37% premium<br />

to ORL’s book value of cash<br />

at Rs46/share<br />

ORL’s brand equity makes it<br />

a preferred partner in<br />

(1) redevelopment and<br />

(2) joint-development<br />

projects<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

What could push the stock to trade above NAV<br />

We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share. Our one<br />

year forward target price for ORL is Rs310 (at par with its FY12NAV). However, we<br />

follow an NPV-based NAV approach to value RE companies based on their land banks,<br />

which captures value emerging from their existing development potential only. In this<br />

regard, we believe ORL could trade at a premium to its FY12NAV due to its (1) value<br />

unlocking potential of its huge surplus cash and (2) strong brand equity, which helps it to<br />

command premium pricing power.<br />

Value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash: ORL has one of the most cash rich<br />

balance sheets among RE companies with zero gross debt. As on date, the company has<br />

~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet.. Besides, with strong monetization visibility<br />

from its ongoing and upcoming projects, ORL is expected generate healthy free cash flow<br />

over 6-7 years. We estimate an incremental net cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (enhancing<br />

the surplus cash balance to Rs25b by FY12) after addressing its requirement for construction<br />

capex, operating and tax expenses. We believe such financial strength offers opportunity<br />

of value-accretive land acquisitions to drive growth potential beyond the land bank.<br />

Despite the large amounts of idle cash on its books, ORL has had a robust RoE (average<br />

RoE of 24.7% over FY08-10) due to its (1) premium pricing and (2) low cost land, leading<br />

to superior margins. Besides, ORL's zero debt scenario offers tremendous potential to<br />

<strong>play</strong> on leverage. This speaks volumes about its value unleashing potential through<br />

deployment of surplus funds in high RoE projects. Our NPV-based NAV estimate values<br />

net cash on books of ~Rs15b at Rs46/share. However, the acquisition of projects with<br />

attractive RoE could add to value accretion beyond its book value. With an RoE assumption<br />

of 22% and 0.2x (of cash balance) leverage, surplus cash could be valued at Rs63/share<br />

or ~37% premium to its book value of Rs46/share. This value unlocking potential explains<br />

why we expect ORL to trade at a premium to its NAV.<br />

Surplus cash per share sensitivity to RoE and leverage (Rs)<br />

If surplus cash With leverage of (x)<br />

gives RoE of (%) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4<br />

20 56 58 59 60 61<br />

22 60 62 63 65 66<br />

24 64 66 68 70 72<br />

26 69 71 73 75 78<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Strong brand equity, premium pricing power: ORL has focused mainly on the mid<br />

income housing segment and created a premium positioning within this market. This is due<br />

to (a) strong brand equity, (b) integrated product positioning in attractive locations, and (c)<br />

superior product quality. However, recently the company has also entered into premium<br />

projects at Worli through a JDA model, where its brand equity has enabled it to acquire<br />

high quality land at an attractive proposition. We believe its premium brand equity makes<br />

ORL a preferred partner for (1) redevelopment and (2) joint-development projects, which<br />

augur positively for value-accretive project acquisitions going forward.<br />

23


<strong>The</strong> stock is exposed to<br />

limited down side risk in the<br />

event of a price correction<br />

20% price correction<br />

in developement projects<br />

to have only 14%<br />

impact on NAV<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Sensitivity of NAV to change in realizations (Rs/share)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Even with 20% drop from assumed price, stock is 'in the money'<br />

Over the last one year, Mumbai's residential prices has appreciated sharply. This has<br />

resulted in a huge volume slowdown across Mumbai's residential micro-markets. However,<br />

we consider this slowdown a short-term phenomenon emerging from the cyclical nature<br />

of the sector. We believe medium-term growth prospects for the RE sector in Mumbai is<br />

robust due to (a) huge inherent demand in asset classes, (b) much-hyped oversupply<br />

pipeline on paper and limited physical supply of completed projects and (c) all the macroeconomic<br />

fundamentals being unaltered for the market.<br />

However, we have assumed realistic price and absorption schedules for ORL’s projects<br />

considering an ongoing slowdown in the market. In this regard, we have also analyzed the<br />

sensitivity of the stock due to a possible price correction. However, we believe this price<br />

correction, if any, is likely to impact the residential vertical only, since the ongoing lease<br />

rentals in the commercial and retail verticals, in our opinion, has bottomed out and is in the<br />

stabilization phase with visible recovery in these verticals.<br />

In our sensitivity analysis we have assumed a price correction across ORL's (a) residential<br />

projects and (b) commercial/retail projects under the sale model, and we have maintained<br />

our base case lease rental assumption for commercial/retail projects under the lease model.<br />

Our study suggests that with a price correction of 20% for its projects under the sale<br />

model ORL's FY12 NAV would be down to Rs267/share (~14% from the base case<br />

NAV of Rs310/share), implying an upside potential of ~19% at current prices.<br />

Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%<br />

Residential 169 196 222 249 276<br />

Commercial (Lease) 78 78 78 78 78<br />

Commercial (Sale) 19 23 25 31 36<br />

Retail (Lease) 22 22 22 22 22<br />

Retail (Sale) 5 5 6 7 8<br />

Hotels 11 11 11 11 11<br />

Infra Business+Land holding 12 12 13 12 12<br />

Gross Asset Value 315 347 377 410 441<br />

Add: Cash 46 46 46 46 46<br />

Less: Other Op Exp 25 28 30 33 35<br />

Tax 69 76 83 90 97<br />

Net Asset Value 267 289 310 333 355<br />

% change in NAV (13.9) (7.1) - 7.1 14.6<br />

Sensitivity of NAV to price and WACC (Rs/share)<br />

WACC<br />

Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%<br />

13% 276 298 320 342 364<br />

14% 267 289 310 333 355<br />

15% 258 280 302 324 346<br />

FY12E EPS (Rs) 15.8 17.9 19.8 22.2 24.2<br />

24


Key assumptions in our NAV estimate (Rs)<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

We believe ORL’s limited downside risk to a price correction would be primarily due to its<br />

annuity projects which render it a strong support during a downcycle.With the recovery of<br />

commercial vertical, we expect its annuity properties to witness a strong upside going<br />

forward.<br />

Moreover, ORL has low cost land bank and enjoys a superior margins across projects. We<br />

belive this provides with a huge flexibility to cut prices without significant impact on its<br />

margins and achieve higher sales velocity. Our sensitivity analysis doesn’t capture the<br />

upside risk arising out of price rationalizations due to its subjectivity.<br />

We consider the company to be an attractive bet with (a) its ability to leverage the buoyancy<br />

of the Mumbai RE market and (b) limited impact from market slowdown.<br />

Projects Product Type Location Saleable Area (msf) Realization (FY11) Cost/sf Completion<br />

Splendor-1 Residential Andheri - East 1.28 14,000 3,200 FY11<br />

Exquisite-1 Residential Goregaon - East 1.37 14,000 3,500 FY13<br />

Splendor-2 Residential Andheri - East 0.29 11,000 3,200 FY14<br />

Exquisite-2 Residential Goregaon - East 1.33 14,000 3,500 FY15<br />

Exotica-1 Residential Mulund - West 1.62 8,000 3,000 FY15<br />

Exotica-2 Residential Mulund - West 1.58 8,000 3,000 FY17<br />

Exquisite-3 Residential Goregaon - East 2.54 14,000 3,500 FY17<br />

Oasis Residential Worli 0.54 32,000 5,500 FY16<br />

Sangam City Residential Pune 0.77 5,500 1,700 FY16<br />

Oasis - Commercial Commercial Sale Worli 0.08 30,000 5,000 FY14<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor-1 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.32 9,500 3,000 FY14<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor -2 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.71 9,500 3,000 FY15<br />

Sangam City Commercial Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,700 FY17<br />

Commerz I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.37 120 3,000 FY08<br />

Commerz II – Phase I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.73 110 3,000 FY12<br />

Commerz II – Phase II Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 1.66 110 3,000 FY13<br />

Oasis - Mall Retail Sale Worli 0.04 30,000 5,000 FY14<br />

Sangam City Retail Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,800 FY16<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Retail Lease Goregaon-East 0.55 100 2,800 FY08<br />

<strong>The</strong> Westin Hotel Goregaon-East 269 7,000 5,500 FY10<br />

Oasis Hotel Worli 45 10,000 6,000 FY15<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

25


Comparative valuation<br />

ORL is trading at 27% discount to FY12 NAV ORL is trading at 34% discount to FY13 NAV<br />

HDIL<br />

IBREL<br />

Unitech<br />

-62 -63 -59<br />

Real Estate: Comparative valuations<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Mah Life<br />

NAV Prem. / Disc. (%)<br />

Anant Raj<br />

Brigade<br />

-47 -46 -45<br />

DLF<br />

-34<br />

Phoenix<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Purvankara<br />

-29 -27 -22<br />

Godrej<br />

Prop<br />

-16<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Company Rating CMP Mcap FY12 FY13 TP* Up- EPS P/E P/B RoE<br />

(Rs) (Rs b) NAV NAV (Rs) side (Rs) (x) (x) (%)<br />

(Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E<br />

DLF Buy 242 415 367 397 338 39.5 10.8 12.6 22.3 19.2 1.5 1.5 6.3 7.3<br />

Unitech Buy 38 92 93 107 61 60.0 3.0 4.1 12.7 9.2 0.9 0.9 6.5 8.3<br />

IBREL Buy 107 43 256 291 166 55.0 5.5 6.9 19.5 15.5 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.6<br />

HDIL UR 129 53 348 NA NA NA 21.2 25.1 6.1 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 10.9<br />

Anant Raj Buy 99 29 185 200 150 51.4 6.6 7.9 15.1 12.6 0.8 0.7 5.3 6.0<br />

Phoenix Mills Buy 184 27 258 288 260 41.3 6.6 7.8 27.9 23.6 1.6 1.5 5.7 6.4<br />

Mah Life Buy 314 13 593 604 453 44.3 32.2 43.5 9.8 7.2 1.2 1.3 12.0 14.1<br />

Brigade Buy 95 11 172 197 148 55.3 12.0 16.1 7.9 5.9 1.0 0.9 12.1 14.8<br />

Puravankara Neutral 105 22 135 155 124 18.0 7.9 9.1 13.3 11.5 1.4 1.3 10.5 11.0<br />

Peninsula Neutral 59 16 100 105 84 42.5 11.9 13.2 5.0 4.5 1.2 1.0 28.3 29.4<br />

GPL Neutral 576 40 686 777 700 21.5 16.3 39.5 35.2 14.6 4.4 3.4 13.1 26.1<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Buy 225 74 310 342 310 37.8 15.8 19.8 14.3 11.4 2.2 1.9 19.8 17.7<br />

*TP: Target price Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Unitech<br />

IBREL<br />

HDIL<br />

-65 -63 -62<br />

Brigade<br />

-52<br />

NAV Prem. / Disc. (%)<br />

Anant Raj<br />

Mah Life<br />

Peninsula<br />

DLF<br />

Phoenix<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Purvankara<br />

Godrej<br />

Prop<br />

-50 -48 -44 -39 -36 -34 -32 -26<br />

26


ORL has undertaken<br />

~5msf of RE development<br />

across 33 projects<br />

� ORL holds the Garden City<br />

projects excluding<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />

� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall Private Ltd<br />

holds <strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall.<br />

� <strong>Oberoi</strong> Constructions<br />

Private Ltd holds Andheri<br />

and Mulund properties.<br />

� Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> holds the<br />

Worli properties.<br />

� Siddhivinayak Realties<br />

Private Ltd holds the<br />

disputed Juhu Hotel.<br />

� Sangam City Township<br />

Private Ltd, a JV between<br />

ORL, DB <strong>Realty</strong> and the<br />

Avinash Bhosale group,<br />

holds the Pune project.<br />

ORL has a 21.4msf land<br />

bank in Mumbai and Pune<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Background<br />

ORL's land bank: Location wise (MSF)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Limited is a Mumbai-based real estate developer. It was incorporated in<br />

May 1998 as Kingston Properties Private Ltd. <strong>The</strong> name of the company changed to<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong> Private Ltd in October 2009. It was converted into a public limited company<br />

in December 2009. ORL's primary focus is to develop residential property but it has<br />

diversified into retail, commercial, hospitality and social infrastructure projects. <strong>The</strong><br />

promoters have a proven track record in the Mumbai RE market since 1983. ORL has<br />

undertaken ~5msf of RE development across 33 projects so far, which provides it with<br />

rich experience in the Mumbai RE market. In October 2010, ORL raised ~Rs10.3b through<br />

a public issue of 36.9m shares. <strong>The</strong> stated objectives for the issue been: (1) construction<br />

funding of key ongoing and planned residential and commercial projects, and (2) to acquire<br />

land or land development rights.<br />

ORL's corporate structure<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong><br />

Construction<br />

Private Ltd<br />

50%<br />

Siddhivinayak<br />

Realties<br />

Private Ltd<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Mall<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Kingston<br />

Property<br />

Services<br />

Private Ltd<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Limited<br />

100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100%<br />

100%<br />

Perspective<br />

Realties<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Oasis<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Sangam City<br />

Township<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

Western suburbs Central suburbs Island City Pune Total<br />

Residential 6.8 3.2 1.5 0.8 12.3<br />

Commercial 3.9 - 0.2 0.3 4.4<br />

Retail 0.6 - 0.1 0.3 1.0<br />

Hospitality 1.7 0.2 1.9<br />

Social Infra 2.0 2.0<br />

Total 14.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 21.4<br />

ORL's land bank: Development status wise (MSF)<br />

Kingston<br />

Hospitality<br />

& Developers<br />

Private Ltd<br />

Unincorporated<br />

Unincorporated JV<br />

JV<br />

Zaco<br />

Aviation<br />

Expression<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Private Ltd<br />

Triumph<br />

<strong>Realty</strong><br />

Private Ltd<br />

Completed Annuity assets Ongoing Upcoming Total<br />

Residential NA 5.8 6.5 12.3<br />

Commercial 0.4 3.7 0.4 4.4<br />

Retail 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0<br />

Hospitality 0.4 0.2 1.3 1.9<br />

Social infra - 0.3 1.7 2.0<br />

1.3 10.1 10.1 21.4<br />

Source: Company/MOSL<br />

27


ORL has integrated projects<br />

location in Goregaon,<br />

Andheri, Mulund and Worli<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Annexure : Project location<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

28


ORL has already sold 37<br />

units in Splendor<br />

Grande and ~93% in<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Splendor is a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office space and<br />

social infrastructure projects, on approximately 21.50 acres of land in Andheri (E) a western<br />

suburb of Mumbai. <strong>The</strong> project is located on the Jogeshwari Vikhroli Link Road (JVLR)<br />

and has total saleable area of ~3msf. ORL acquired this land from Madhu Fantasy Land<br />

Pvt. Ltd and Avinash Bhosale in 2005 at Rs1.06b.<strong>The</strong> development is located near the<br />

arterial Western Express Highway and overlooks Aarey Milk Colony, a 3,160 acre<br />

no-development green zone. This development site is being developed by its wholly-owned<br />

subsidiary, OCPL.<br />

Residential plot<br />

Integrated layout of Splendor (Andheri E) project<br />

Splendor II<br />

(Grande)<br />

IT Tower<br />

Splendor I<br />

Commerical<br />

Phase-I<br />

Commerical<br />

Phase-II<br />

(Prisma)<br />

~1,200 units (out of 1,296 units) have been sold in Splendor I<br />

School<br />

Plot<br />

JVLR<br />

Constructions have commenced in Grande(Residential) and Prisma (Commercial)<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Grande School Plot<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Prisma<br />

29


Expect Oasis residential will<br />

be launched in 1HFY12<br />

Layout of Oasis project at Worli<br />

Dr. Annie<br />

Besant Road<br />

11 February 2011<br />

Oasis<br />

Commerical /<br />

Retail / Hotel<br />

Excavation work commenced in Worli plots<br />

Rehab building<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Oasis<br />

Oasis <strong>Realty</strong> is a joint venture between ORL's wholly-owned subsidiary, OCPL, Skylark<br />

Build and Shree Vrunda Enterprises to develop a mixed-use development of approximately<br />

2.1msf of saleable area in Worli, located on the arterial Annie Besant Road. As a joint<br />

venture partner, OCPL will be responsible for developing the free-sale portion arising<br />

from the slum redevelopment project being undertaken on the property. <strong>The</strong> rehabilitation<br />

component of the slum redevelopment project is the responsibility of the other joint-venture<br />

partners. OCPL would receive 25-40% of net revenues (gross revenue less construction<br />

cost) from sale of residential, office space and retail components. Provided construction<br />

of hotel is completed by OCPL, it would receive 36.25% of net revenues from the hotel.<br />

Residential plot<br />

Oasis<br />

Residential<br />

Rehab Buildings<br />

Commercial and hotel plot<br />

30


Projects at Mulund are<br />

likely to be launched in<br />

4QFY11 and land<br />

aggreation is progressing<br />

in Pune<br />

11 February 2011<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Exotica is a residential development on approximately 18.3 acres of land in Mulund<br />

(W) a central suburb of Mumbai. <strong>The</strong> development is located on LBS Marg, a key road in<br />

the central suburbs, and overlooks the Borivali National Park. <strong>The</strong> project has a total<br />

saleable area of ~3.2msf and is divided into two phases: Exotica-I has a salable area of<br />

1.6msf comprising ~890 units while Exotica-II has a saleable area of 1.6msf with 869<br />

units. ORL acquired this land for Rs2.2b in 2005 from GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals<br />

Limited. ORL expects to launch the projects by 4QFY11.<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> Sangam City project at Pune<br />

ORL holds a 31.67% interest in Sangam City Township Private Limited (Sangam City<br />

Township), an SPV, established for a development project comprising approximately 56<br />

acres of land located in Sangamwadi, Pune, and surrounded by the Mula Mutha River on<br />

three sides. <strong>The</strong> land is situated 2km from Pune Railway Station and 6km from Pune<br />

International Airport.<br />

<strong>The</strong> project will be developed as a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office<br />

space and retail components. This agricultural land parcel was acquired through individual<br />

agreements with the land owner since 2007. <strong>The</strong> SPV would be responsible for obtaining<br />

approval related to land conversion. While the land aggregation process in still continuing,<br />

ORL has made the cash payment partly by disbursing and partly keeping it in an escrow<br />

account.<br />

31


11 February 2011<br />

Financials and valuation<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

INCOME STATEMENT (Rs Million)<br />

Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />

Net Sales 5,112 4,255 7,836 10,382 13,865 24,383<br />

Change (%) 117.4 (16.8) 84.2 32.5 33.5 75.9<br />

Construction expenses 2,504 1,695 3,094 4,150 5,567 8,491<br />

Staff Cost 33 87 70 259 284 313<br />

EBITDA 2,575 2,474 4,672 5,973 8,014 15,579<br />

% of Net Sales 50.4 58.1 59.6 57.5 57.8 63.9<br />

Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189<br />

Interest 0 4 - - - 248<br />

Other Income 474 295 218 545 1,119 1,158<br />

PBT 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300<br />

Tax 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955<br />

Rate (%) 2.3 6.6 4.7 19.0 27.5 30.4<br />

Adjusted PAT 2,954 2,521 4,582 5,174 6,495 11,345<br />

Change (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />

BALANCE SHEET (Rs Million)<br />

Y/E MARCH 2,008 2,009 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />

Share Capital 26 26 2,887 3,282 3,282 3,282<br />

Reserves 11,395 13,840 15,392 30,087 36,027 45,895<br />

Net Worth 12,204 14,437 18,637 33,728 39,669 49,536<br />

Loans 1,435 107 - - - 4,954<br />

Capital Employed 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490<br />

Gross Fixed Assets 477 2,837 3,258 4,362 4,736 5,841<br />

Less: Depreciation 31 101 190 209 230 253<br />

Net Fixed Assets 446 2,736 3,068 4,153 4,507 5,588<br />

Capital WIP 3,917 3,851 5,103 5,307 6,497 6,458<br />

Curr. Assets 8,991 11,794 16,517 34,007 40,287 54,194<br />

Inventory 5,504 7,127 6,243 8,885 11,958 11,893<br />

Debtors 501 272 404 831 1,387 2,438<br />

Cash & Bank Balance 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543 27,671<br />

Loans & Advances 2,526 2,725 6,240 8,306 10,399 12,192<br />

Current Liab. & Prov. 3,548 3,993 6,843 10,933 12,815 12,944<br />

Creditors 3,540 3,962 6,746 10,909 12,792 12,920<br />

Provisions 9 31 97 24 24 24<br />

Net Current Assets 5,443 7,801 9,675 23,075 27,471 41,250<br />

Misc. Expenses - - - - - -<br />

Application of Funds 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490<br />

E: MOSL Estimates<br />

32


11 February 2011<br />

Financials and valuation<br />

RATIOS<br />

<strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />

Basic (Rs)<br />

Adjusted EPS 9.0 7.7 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6<br />

Growth (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7<br />

Cash EPS 9.1 7.9 14.2 16.2 20.3 35.1<br />

Book Value 37.2 44.0 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9<br />

DPS 1.4 0.6 4.0 1.0 1.5 4.0<br />

Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 9.7 7.0 28.4 7.1 8.5 13.0<br />

Valuation (x)<br />

P/E 25.4 29.8 16.4 14.5 11.6 6.6<br />

Cash P/E 25.3 29.0 16.1 14.2 11.3 6.5<br />

EV/EBITDA 29.6 29.8 15.3 9.9 7.3 3.4<br />

EV/Sales 14.9 17.3 9.1 5.7 4.2 2.2<br />

Price/Book Value 6.2 5.2 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5<br />

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 1.7<br />

Profitability Ratios (%)<br />

RoE 27.6 18.9 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4<br />

RoCE 23.3 19.1 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1<br />

Leverage Ratio<br />

Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 - - - 0.1<br />

CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Rs Million)<br />

Y/E MARCH 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E<br />

PBT before Extraordinary Items 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300<br />

Add : Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189<br />

Interest 0 4 - - - 248<br />

Less : Direct Taxes Paid 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955<br />

(Inc)/Dec in WC 498 1,150 (87) 1,044 3,839 2,651<br />

CF from Operations 2,476 1,448 4,759 4,260 2,830 9,131<br />

(Inc)/Dec in FA (1,937) (2,297) (1,675) (1,419) (1,719) (1,232)<br />

(Pur)/Sale of Investments (3,842) 3,692 (640) (404) - -<br />

CF from Investments (5,779) 1,395 (2,315) (1,823) (1,719) (1,232)<br />

(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth 287 (127) 923 10,288 0 0<br />

(Inc)/Dec in Debt (1,708) (1,328) (107) - - 4,954<br />

Less : Interest Paid 0 4 - - - 248<br />

Dividend Paid 288 177 1,299 369 554 1,477<br />

CF from Fin. Activity (1,709) (1,635) (483) 9,919 (554) 3,229<br />

Inc/Dec of Cash (5,012) 1,208 1,961 12,355 557 11,128<br />

Add: Beginning Balance 5,473 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543<br />

Closing Balance 461 1,669 3,630 15,986 16,543 27,671<br />

E: MOSL Estimates<br />

33


Motilal Oswal Company Gallery


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MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.<br />

Disclosure of Interest Statement <strong>Oberoi</strong> <strong>Realty</strong><br />

1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes<br />

2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock No<br />

3. Broking relationship with company covered No<br />

4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No<br />

This information is subject to change without any prior notice. MOSt reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required<br />

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