Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America
Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America
Abstracts with Programs - Geological Society of America
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3-5 14:00 Furlong, Kevin P.<br />
THE CANTERBURY, NEW ZEALAND EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE: LESSONS FROM A YEAR<br />
OF EARTHQUAKES<br />
FURLONG, Kevin P., Geosciences, Penn State Univ, 542 Deike Building, University Park,<br />
PA 16802, kevin@geodyn.psu.edu<br />
In the year since the September 2010 earthquake in Canterbury, the lives <strong>of</strong> New Zealanders<br />
have been changed forever. The main sequence <strong>of</strong> earthquakes led after almost 6 months to<br />
the deadly and damaging Christchurch Earthquake <strong>of</strong> February 22, 2011 (23:51, 21/02/11<br />
UTC); a critically important event, but only one part <strong>of</strong> the Canterbury earthquake sequence<br />
started by the Mw 7.1 Darfield Earthquake in September <strong>of</strong> 2010. These earthquakes<br />
have occurred on previously unrecognized fault(s) and significantly distant from the main<br />
components <strong>of</strong> the plate boundary system through South Island, New Zealand. The initial<br />
rupture pattern <strong>of</strong> the September event and subsequent aftershocks have delineated a<br />
linear (nearly east-west in orientation) trend <strong>of</strong> seismicity extending from the foothills <strong>of</strong> the<br />
Southern Alps to the Pacific coast to the east <strong>of</strong> the city <strong>of</strong> Christchurch. Understanding the<br />
relationships among the various fault segments, the regional geologic structure, and crustal<br />
stresses associated <strong>with</strong> regional plate interactions (further modified by the earthquakes) is key<br />
to placing these events into a context allowing their lessons to be applied elsewhere. Here we<br />
focus on the seismo-tectonics <strong>of</strong> the sequence in the year following the initial event to address<br />
the following: 1) How does the February 22 event’s fault relate to the September 3 fault system<br />
both physically and through stress conditions; 2) Where do the other larger aftershocks fit into<br />
the overall sequence; 3) Are there gaps in moment release between main rupture segments<br />
and what role have aftershocks played in modifying any gaps; 4) Are there other faults capable<br />
<strong>of</strong> hosting moderate but damaging earthquakes in the region and have the year <strong>of</strong> aftershocks<br />
identified these faults; and 5) Can we say anything about the potential for future events such as<br />
the February 22 earthquake; both nearby to Christchurch and regionally? This last point is the<br />
fundamental question that Christchurch residents would like answered and is diagnostic <strong>of</strong> the<br />
issues that mark the global significance <strong>of</strong> this and similar events.<br />
3-6 14:20 Rubin, Jeffrey N.<br />
HAZARD COMMUNICATION REQUIRES KNOWING “WHO” AS WELL AS “HOW”<br />
RUBIN, Jeffrey N., Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue, 20665 SW Blanton St, Aloha, OR 97007,<br />
jeff.rubin@tvfr.com<br />
Geoscientists have an essential role in communicating natural hazard risk to the public, in<br />
order to generate timely, effective action. As <strong>with</strong> the internet use over the past ~ 15 years,<br />
excessive focus on the medium may be at the cost <strong>of</strong> the message itself and who receives it.<br />
Informing the public requires replacing largely tacit assumptions <strong>with</strong> active questions. Who is<br />
“the public” and what communities do we need to engage? Who are the best spokespeople<br />
to address those communities and what are the most appropriate media? Are we speaking<br />
to entire communities or to a subset (e.g., decision-makers)? What hazard are we trying<br />
to address and what is the desired outcome? With what daily priorities are we competing?<br />
Increasing knowledge and/or awareness (e.g., a specific telephone number), promoting an<br />
emergency action (e.g., immediate protective measures in an earthquake), and promoting preincident<br />
action (e.g., seismic mitigation) require different approaches and expertise. Audience<br />
classification is complex but may include age, sex, location, economic status, language(s),<br />
and hazard-specific vulnerabilities. Individuals tend to personalize risk, and actual hazard<br />
perception (and thus willingness to act) may diverge from expert assessment. Knowledge<br />
transfer may be an important outcome, but knowledge <strong>with</strong>out direction toward action may<br />
result in a smarter – but not safer – public.<br />
3-7 14:40 Okal, Emile<br />
ELEVEN TSUNAMIS FROM SUMATRA TO TOHOKU: HAVE WE BECOME WISER?<br />
OKAL, Emile, Department <strong>of</strong> Earth & Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University,<br />
Evanston, IL 60208, emile@earth.northwestern.edu<br />
The 2004 Sumatra earthquake was the biggest earthquake in at least 40 years, and its tsunami<br />
probably the deadliest in the history <strong>of</strong> mankind. Six years later, we examine its impact on our<br />
knowledge <strong>of</strong> Earth dynamics, on our approach to tsunami mitigation and warning and we<br />
review critically the performance and efficiency <strong>of</strong> warnings during the smaller tsunamis which<br />
have occurred since 2005. While awareness <strong>of</strong> tsunami hazard has undoubtedly been raised<br />
worldwide, and substantial funding appropriated, the development <strong>of</strong> tsunami centers and the<br />
improvement <strong>of</strong> warning algorithms remains occasionally chaotic, despite significant analytical<br />
progress, such as the generalization <strong>of</strong> W-phase inversions.<br />
We review eleven post-Sumatra tsunamis (from Nias, 2005 to Tohoku, 2011) and assign<br />
them a color-coded wisdom index, on a scale from red (bad) to gold (excellent), depending<br />
on an [admittedly subjective] evaluation <strong>of</strong> the performance <strong>of</strong> the warning centers and <strong>of</strong> the<br />
response <strong>of</strong> the populations involved. The results are mixed, <strong>with</strong> a generally positive attitude <strong>of</strong><br />
coastal inhabitants possessing the reflex <strong>of</strong> self-evacuation, but a frequent failure <strong>of</strong> centralized<br />
warning centers and government agencies, which in particular, have repeatedly failed to<br />
mitigate against, and recognize in real time, the so-called “tsunami earthquakes” characterized<br />
by slow rupture and enhanced tsunami generation.<br />
3-8 15:30 Lauterjung, Joern<br />
TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN - LESSONS LEARNED<br />
LAUTERJUNG, Joern, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg,<br />
Haus A40, Potsdam 14473 Germany, lau@gfz-potsdam.de<br />
Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean,<br />
the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one <strong>of</strong> the most threatened regions <strong>of</strong> the world in<br />
terms <strong>of</strong> natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December<br />
2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3) occurred<br />
<strong>of</strong>f-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean.<br />
Almost a quarter <strong>of</strong> a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms<br />
<strong>of</strong> early-warning or in terms <strong>of</strong> disaster response.<br />
In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the<br />
population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, <strong>of</strong>fered during the UN World<br />
Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support<br />
for the development and installation <strong>of</strong> a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean<br />
in addition to assistance in capacity development in particular for local communities. This<br />
<strong>of</strong>fer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and<br />
some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus <strong>of</strong> the activities has been carried out<br />
in Indonesia as the main source <strong>of</strong> tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging<br />
for the technical concept <strong>of</strong> this warning system are the extremely short warning times<br />
for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian<br />
Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) integrates different modern and new scientific<br />
monitoring technologies, analysis methods and modelling approaches for tsunami propagation,<br />
inundation and risk assessment. Core <strong>of</strong> the system is a state <strong>of</strong> the art decision support<br />
system. Furthermore respective strategies and tools for disaster mitigation, preparedness and<br />
evacuation for local communities have been implemented.<br />
SESSION NO. 4<br />
3-9 15:50 Blewitt, Ge<strong>of</strong>frey<br />
A PROTOTYPE SYSTEM FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING BASED ON REAL-TIME GPS<br />
BLEWITT, Ge<strong>of</strong>frey1 , BAR-SEVER, Yoaz2 , GROSS, Richard2 , HAMMOND,<br />
William Charles1 , HUDNUT, Kenneth W. 3 , KHACHIKYAN, Robert2 , PLAG, Hans-Peter1 ,<br />
SONG, Y. Tony 2 , WEBB, Frank H. 2 , and SIMONS, Mark4 , (1) Nevada Bureau <strong>of</strong> Mines and<br />
Geology and Nevada Seismological Laboratory, University <strong>of</strong> Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV<br />
89557, gblewitt@unr.edu, (2) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute <strong>of</strong> Technology,<br />
Pasadena, CA 91109, (3) U. S. <strong>Geological</strong> Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, CA<br />
91106, (4) Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>Geological</strong> and Planetary Sciences, California Institute <strong>of</strong><br />
Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125<br />
Reliable tsunami early warning requires a rapid assessment <strong>of</strong> the tsunamigenic potential <strong>of</strong> an<br />
earthquake as well as a prediction <strong>of</strong> the likely propagation pattern <strong>of</strong> the tsunami. Low-latency<br />
availability <strong>of</strong> the coseismic Earth’s surface displacements can support the assessment <strong>of</strong> the<br />
tsunamigenic potential <strong>of</strong> an earthquake and improve predictions <strong>of</strong> the propagation pattern <strong>of</strong><br />
the tsunami.<br />
Here we present the GREAT Alert, which is a NASA-sponsored, real-time prototype<br />
system designed to enhance tsunami warning capability. The system takes advantage <strong>of</strong> the<br />
increasingly available global and regional real-time GPS data, as well as advanced fault and<br />
ocean dynamics models to enable more accurate and timely assessment <strong>of</strong> the magnitude and<br />
mechanism <strong>of</strong> large earthquakes, and the magnitude and direction <strong>of</strong> resulting tsunamis. We<br />
will describe the prototype operational system being developed in a multi-agency collaboration.<br />
The key system components are:<br />
(1) the operational real-time estimation <strong>of</strong> site coordinates from hundreds <strong>of</strong> GPS sites using<br />
a precise point positioning algorithm;<br />
(2) the application <strong>of</strong> data filtering and quality control techniques to the real-time site position<br />
time series in order to enhance the accurate retrieval <strong>of</strong> co-seismic site motions;<br />
(3) usage <strong>of</strong> either an empirical inversion model or a “fingerprint” model, which maps slip<br />
on a fault segment to surface displacement, for the rapid determination <strong>of</strong> the earthquake<br />
displacement field from the GPS-based records at each station;<br />
(4) the input <strong>of</strong> detected and modeled seafloor displacements into a special ocean dynamics<br />
model to determine tsunami source energy and scales, and estimate the tsunami propagation;<br />
(5) the dissemination <strong>of</strong> the results to the responsible agencies to help in their decision<br />
making processes.<br />
We will discuss the actual and predicted performance <strong>of</strong> the system, particularly in light <strong>of</strong><br />
recent great earthquakes around the globe, and in view <strong>of</strong> the rapid development <strong>of</strong> real time<br />
GPS stations being used to monitor the Cascadia subduction zone near the Pacific coast <strong>of</strong> the<br />
United States.<br />
3-10 16:10 Miller, Meghan<br />
GEODYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE LITHOSPHERE, CRYOSPHERE,<br />
ATMOSPHERE AND HYDROSPHERE, AS REVEALED BY MODERN SPACE GEODESY<br />
MILLER, Meghan, UNAVCO, 6350 Nautilus Drive, Boulder, CO 80301, meghan@<br />
unavco.org<br />
Transformational scientific discoveries stem from the recent growth <strong>of</strong> integrated geophysical<br />
observatories and networks that are operated by facilities on behalf <strong>of</strong> US university consortia.<br />
UNAVCO is one such consortium, facilitating geoscience research and education using<br />
geodesy. The technology revolution yields increasingly sophisticated and precise geodetic<br />
techniques.<br />
Individually and through partnerships such as <strong>with</strong> those EarthScope and JPL, UNAVCO<br />
operates geodetic networks around the world <strong>with</strong> core sponsorship from NSF and NASA.<br />
The geodetic component <strong>of</strong> EarthScope, the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO), is an<br />
integrated network <strong>of</strong> complementary geodetic techniques that sample at seconds (GPS and<br />
strain meters) to millennia (geodetic imaging). Other integrated, open geodetic data sets are<br />
emerging from around the world: Greenland, Antarctica, Latin <strong>America</strong>, and Africa.<br />
The international research community actively mines and integrates open archives and data<br />
sets to support new applications and discoveries, advancing understanding <strong>of</strong> the complex<br />
interactions that drive geodynamics. Ocean loading effects detected by GPS constrains<br />
refinements to mantle structure and rheology on the US Pacific seaboard, integration <strong>of</strong><br />
GPS and accelerometer records yield full displacement seismograms, atmospheric pressure<br />
correlates to near-fault deformation in Taiwan, ocean and solid Earth tides modulate slow<br />
slip events in Cascadia, the Tohoku tsunami <strong>of</strong> 2011 registered on strain meters across the<br />
Pacific, combinations <strong>of</strong> GPS and InSAR provide deeper insights into earthquake and volcano<br />
deformation than previously possible, annual and inter-annual structure in the GPS time<br />
series can now be strongly correlated to ground deformation related to changes in snow load,<br />
aquifers, and surface water reservoirs.<br />
This synthesis <strong>of</strong> recent community science contributions reveals the influence <strong>of</strong> the<br />
atmosphere, hydrosphere, and tides in modulating tectonic and glacial processes that are<br />
fundamental to understanding natural hazards.<br />
SESSION NO. 4, 11:00<br />
Monday, 5 September 2011<br />
T7A. Earth Surface in the Anthropocene<br />
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, A 016<br />
4-1 11:00 Friedrich, Jana<br />
DATING OF COASTAL MARINE SEDIMENTS: 210PB AND 137CS IN DANUBE-INFLUENCED<br />
BLACK SEA SHELF SEDIMENTS<br />
FRIEDRICH, Jana, Marine Geochemistry, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine<br />
Research, Am Handelshafen 12, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany, jana.friedrich@<br />
awi.de, LAPTEV, Gennady, Center for Monitoring Studies and Environmental Technology,<br />
Ukrainian Scientific and Research Institute for Hydrometeorology, 37 Prospekt Nauki,<br />
Kiev, 03028, Ukraine, and LIEBETRAU, Volker, Marine Biogeochemistry, IFM-GEOMAR,<br />
Wischh<strong>of</strong>str. 1-3, Kiel, 24148, Germany<br />
Coastal marine sediments are natural archives <strong>of</strong> environmental change due to anthropogenic<br />
impact and natural variability in aquatic ecosystems, e.g. coastal erosion, changing river<br />
discharge, marine productivity and pollution. Dating <strong>of</strong> those sediments is a prerequisite for<br />
recovering records <strong>of</strong> change. The natural occurring radionuclide 210Pb and the artificial fallout<br />
radionuclides 137Cs and 241Am are applied in dating <strong>of</strong> recent sediments, i.e. deposited since the<br />
beginning <strong>of</strong> the industrial period. 137Cs serves as an independent time marker for end <strong>of</strong> the<br />
atmospheric bomb test fallout in 1963 and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Due to its chemical<br />
mobility in sediments, the 137Cs signal is <strong>of</strong>ten weakened. Complementary, the less mobile<br />
241 241 241 Am may be used. Am originates from decay <strong>of</strong> the bomb fallout <strong>of</strong> Pu, and is used as a<br />
second time marker <strong>of</strong> the 1963 event.<br />
The northwestern shelf ecosystem <strong>of</strong> the Black Sea has been hit by eutrophication and<br />
pollution from the late 1960’s to the mid-1990’s, largely triggered by Danube River input <strong>of</strong><br />
Munich, Germany A5<br />
Monday