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growers@sgcotton.com.au Roger Tomkins - Greenmount Press

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WORLD COMMODITY WATCH<br />

India<br />

Speculation around the possibility of another export ban continues as<br />

a government official crop numbers are released in August which may<br />

provide insight into a likely policy change. With delayed monsoonal rains,<br />

there has been much conjecture over this nation’s production. Various<br />

sources indicate a crop of 31–32 million (170 kg) bales, but concerns<br />

persist around the ongoing dry conditions prevalent in the state of Gujarat.<br />

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chain in the Australian cotton industry.<br />

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China<br />

Rumours continue to swirl around the possible<br />

additional release by the Reserve of 400,000<br />

million tonnes of processing quota. This quota<br />

would take the form of an export incentive and be<br />

available to mills only (not trading <strong>com</strong>panies).<br />

Downstream demand from mills remains slightly<br />

weak to stable, but most in the trade still feel the<br />

potential for further downward revisions to the<br />

USDA’s Chinese consumption figure. The 2012–13<br />

Reserve Procurement Program is scheduled to<br />

<strong>com</strong>mence again in September at a 4% price<br />

increase over last year.<br />

Australia<br />

Information exchanges at the Cotton<br />

Conference confirmed sentiments around<br />

decreased dryland acreage for next cotton<br />

crop in Australia, with early dryland acreage<br />

estimates suggesting a 55% drop year on<br />

year. Irrigation cotton acreage may too<br />

be slightly down for the up<strong>com</strong>ing crop,<br />

with the biggest decreases being forecast<br />

in Central Queensland, the Darling Downs<br />

and Southern NSW. North-western cotton<br />

growing regions of NSW remain relatively<br />

<strong>com</strong>mitted to cotton given the full profile of<br />

water storages and lack of gross margins<br />

and yields in alternative crops. All being<br />

said, at this early stage we look set to<br />

produce another healthy sized crop, around<br />

3.8–4 million bales.<br />

* Ex-gin price bids and basis for<br />

middling 1 1/8 inch cotton<br />

55 Wyandra Street, Newstead<br />

Queensland Australia 4006,<br />

Tel: 61 7 3250 3300<br />

Fax: 61 7 3852 1600

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