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October 2000 Newsletter - Naval Postgraduate School

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PROJECT NOTES<br />

SABBATICAL BRINGS PROFESSORS TO GRADUATES, continued from page 18<br />

including recommendations on training, and summaries of<br />

Navy ocean circulation and tide models, and surface wave<br />

models.<br />

In addition to interacting with the staff of the centers and<br />

facilities, they took every opportunity to visit with other<br />

METOC officers assigned to ships and staffs in the area.<br />

These ranged from training sessions with detachments<br />

primarily supporting airfields, to brainstorming with submarine<br />

group oceanographers. They also visited with other local<br />

government and research meteorological and oceanographic<br />

facilities, such as Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University<br />

of Tokyo, Old Dominion University, University of Cadiz,<br />

National Weather Service, and National Ocean Service, and<br />

facilitated Navy contacts with these institutions. At dockside,<br />

they were able to tour the spaces and examine the equipment<br />

used by OA divisions and Mobile Environmental Teams on a<br />

number of ships. They flew out to the carriers USS Enterprise<br />

off Norfolk, and USS Eisenhower in the Arabian Gulf, for<br />

overnight stays.<br />

Professor Wash has been a faculty member at NPS since<br />

1980, and it was particularly gratifying for him to see so<br />

many of his former students enjoying successful careers.<br />

Wherever he went, he solicited candid feedback from<br />

METOC alumni on their experiences here at NPS. These<br />

firsthand evaluations were overwhelmingly favorable, but also<br />

provided valuable insight into improvements that could be<br />

made. Wash and Rosenfeld also met some of our foreign<br />

alumni in Japan and Spain who spoke very highly of their<br />

time at NPS and were grateful for the education they received<br />

and the kindnesses they were shown. Professors Wash and<br />

Rosenfeld were the lucky recipients of their hospitality in<br />

TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING, continued from page 19<br />

A beta test of the expert system module was carried out at<br />

the NPS late in 1999. Research Associate Professor Patrick<br />

Harr, Research Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ritchie and<br />

Meteorologist Mark Boothe participated in the simulated<br />

real-time test of the expert system module. This beta test was<br />

a valuable learning experience and led to a number of<br />

improvements in the module. The test was successful in the<br />

sense of correctly rejecting nearly all erroneous 72-hour track<br />

forecasts. Even though the Joint Typhoon Warning Center<br />

had their best year ever, we were able to show that the expert<br />

system had the potential to help them be even better.<br />

return.<br />

Prior to embarking on the sabbatical, Professors Wash and<br />

Rosenfeld anticipated that much of their interaction would<br />

be with the officers and civilians. One of the unexpected<br />

pleasures on the trip was to work with so many bright and<br />

engaging enlisted personnel. For the most part, they were<br />

eager to learn new things and many sought out the professors<br />

to ask questions. In addition, the professors met many<br />

junior officers at these centers who were in their first or<br />

second METOC tour. These officers had many questions<br />

about NPS and were anxious to learn about the METOC<br />

curricula. Wash and Rosenfeld look forward to greeting<br />

these officers when they arrive at NPS for their graduate<br />

education tour.<br />

Prior to leaving each center or facility, Wash and Rosenfeld<br />

briefed the Commanding Officer (CO) on what they had<br />

learned – both good points and bad – about the command’s<br />

operations. They presented detailed suggestions and are<br />

following this up with a written report to each CO. They<br />

plan to compile their findings and recommendations into a<br />

comprehensive report to be presented to CNMOC and<br />

ONR. Wash and Rosenfeld plan to share their observations<br />

with their METOC NPS colleagues through a seminar on<br />

their experiences. These forward-deployed professors<br />

returned to NPS this fall with great respect for the METOC<br />

officers, sailors and staff, and a much better understanding of<br />

how they serve the fleet and the problems that they face and<br />

must solve. In addition, they hope their findings will<br />

improve the NPS METOC curricula in meeting the challenge<br />

of educating the METOC officers of the future.<br />

Delivery of the Expert System<br />

Again with some special funding from SPAWAR, a preliminary<br />

version of the expert system was delivered in May <strong>2000</strong><br />

for training and familiarization by the forecasters. A final<br />

version was delivered in early July, and the forecasters have<br />

been utilizing the expert system as a primary tool in their<br />

forecast process. Half-way through the <strong>2000</strong> western North<br />

Pacific tropical cyclone system, the Joint Typhoon Warning<br />

Center is having another record-breaking year for accuracy.<br />

They credit the Systematic Approach Expert System developed<br />

at NPS for contributing to that success.<br />

NPS Research page 21<br />

<strong>October</strong> <strong>2000</strong>

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