Remembering the Space Age. - Black Vault Radio Network (BVRN)

GIGaNtIC FoLLIeS? hUMaN expLoratIoN aND the SpaCe aGe
IN LoNG-terM hIStorICaL perSpeCtIVe
view that, for example, spy satellites prevented the Cold War from turning into
World War III. the big things would probably be much the same, for better or
for worse. I write “probably” in italics as a way to convey uncertainty because
I am conscious that there are many things about space programs that I do
not know. Furthermore, questions of causation in counterfactual scenarios are
inherently unknowable, even for the best informed. 27 had hundreds of billions
of dollars and trillions of roubles not been spent on space, what might they have
been used for? We can’t know, but my guess is nothing out of the ordinary, that
is, a little more of both guns and butter.
perhaps space programs indirectly afected the big trends, even if spy
satellites cannot be credited with preventing World War III. Could, for example,
the current surge of globalization have derived some of its momentum from an
enhanced awareness that we are all in the same boat, all stuck on the same
small blue dot spinning through the darkness? or could it owe something to
instantaneous communications via satellites? 28 My view is the best answer is:
yes, but not much. If no one had ever seen photos of earth from space, and if
information from India and Indonesia still arrived by telegraph and took a day
or two to reach other continents instead of a second or two, would globalization
be substantially diferent?
Space programs, of course, had spinofs that afected contemporary history.
the two most consequential so far are communications satellites and
(very indirectly) the Internet. Nearly two-thirds of all satellites are used for
communications, 29 and they have dramatically lowered the time and cost
required for long-distance communications. the Internet arose from the Defense
advanced research projects agency (more familiarly known as Darpa), which
itself was created in response to the successful launch of Sputnik. these are both
developments of consequence in today’s world. but the Internet would likely
have evolved, in somewhat diferent ways no doubt, even without Darpa.
and in the absence of communication satellites, what they now transmit would
likely go via the Internet (as, increasingly, long-distance phone calls do now).
these musings reinforce the conclusion that space programs changed the history
of our times, but not (yet) in any fundamental ways. Contemporary history,
however, will inevitably look diferent to those no longer in the middle of it.
Space exploration, as opposed to the totality of space programs, could well
be relegated to the status of historical footnote if, in the years ahead, exploratory
probes are shut down. Satellites in near orbit are surely here to stay for a while,
27. For a more favorable assessment of the signifcance of space programs, see erik M. Conway,
“overview: Satellites and Security: Space in Service to humanity.” Societal Impact of Spacefight,
pp. 267-288.
28. James a.Vedda,“the role of Space Development in Globalization.” Societal Impact of Space Flight,
pp. 193-206.
29. The Washington Post, october 2, 2007:a1,a6.
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