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. A GIS-tool for risk assessment due to natural hazards in mountain regions Baruffini Mirko*, Baruffini Moreno* & Thüring Manfred* *Istituto Scienze della Terra IST-SUPSI, C.P. 72, CH-6952 Canobbio (ist@supsi.ch) During the last decades land-use increased significantly in the Swiss (and European) mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, anthropic activities were extended into areas prone to natural hazards such as avalanches, debris flows and rockfalls (Smith 2001). Consequently, an increase in losses due to hazards can be observed. To mitigate these associated losses, both traditional protective measures and land-use planning policies are to be developed and implemented to optimize future investments. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. Considering different hazard processes and their impact on the built environment, multiple solutions for the protection of new buildings and infrastructures and the upgrade of existing inventory exist. Consequently, the concept of local protection should be embedded within the framework of integral risk management strategies. Planned early, expenditures for the implementation of local structural measures are comparatively low related to the total cost of the planned construction. Recent studies suggested a considerable decrease in vulnerability, if local structural protection is implemented (Holub & Fuchs 2008). As part of the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 54 “Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks - An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors” we study the vulnerability of infrastructures due to natural hazards. The Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999) offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapse, rockfall, flooding, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. We conduct a research referred to the concept of the evaluation of the resilience within the framework of integral risk management with the aim to develop a system which integrates the procedures for a complete risk analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) toolbox, in order to be applied to our testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. A simulation environment, RiskBox, is developed within the open-source GIS environment GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) and a database (PostgreSQL) in order to manage a infrastructure data catalog. The targeted simulation environment includes the elements that identify the consecutive steps of risk analysis: hazard – vulnerability – risk. Module hazard integrates applications to simulate natural hazard processes in order to assess their degree of hazard. Module vulnerability integrates vulnerable objects and attributes them with the necessary meta-data. Module risk integrates the necessary analysis approaches in order to conduct the risk analysis based on the former two modules. The final goal of RiskBox is a versatile tool for risk analysis which can be applied to other situations. There are specific needs for an improvement of the level of information for affected people, legal regulations and risk transfer mechanisms (ARMONIA Project 2007). These needs would not only result in an increased risk awareness of people concerned, but also in an enhanced enforceability of necessary legal regulations, such as land-use planning rules and building codes. So, the individual responsibility could be strengthened and the society will be enabled to an alternatively use of the resources in a more cost-efficient way. The initial results of the experimental case study shows how useful a GIS-based system can be for effective and efficient disaster response management. We present the concept and current state of development of RiskBox and its application to the testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. 2 Symposium 9: Natural Hazards and Risks
2 6 Symposium 9: Natural Hazards and Risks REFERENCES ARMONIA Project 2007: Land use plans in Risky areas fro Unwise to Wise Practices – Materials 2nd conference. Politecnico di Milano. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1- 244. Holub, M. & Fuchs S. 2008: Benefits of local structural protection to mitigate torrent-related hazards. In: Brebbia, C.A. & Beritatos, E. (eds) 2008: Risk Analysis VI: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation. Institute of Technology, UK and University of Thessaly, Greece, 401-411. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004 : La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22–24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Smith, K. 2001: Environmental hazards. Assessing the risk and reducing disaster. Third edition. London .6 Multidisciplinary investigations and back-analysis of a periglacial rock fall event: Tschierva rock fall Fischer Luzia *, Amann Florian**, & Huggel Christian* * Glaciology, Geomorphodynamics & Geochronology, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland (luzia.fischer@geo.uzh.ch) ** Group of Engineering Geology, Department of Earth Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Slope stability of steep rock walls in glacierised and permafrost-affected high-mountain regions is controlled by many different factors such as geological and geomechanical characteristics, topography, hydrology and also glaciation and permafrost occurrence. Changes in one or more of these factors may reduce the slope stability and eventually lead to a rock fall event. The atmospheric warming during the 20 th century has caused pronounced effects in the glacial and periglacial belts of high mountain areas. The changes are made strikingly evident by, for example, the retreat of Alpine glaciers and less immediately visible but also very significant are changes in mountain permafrost distribution and temperature. Therefore, cryospheric factors are most prone to ongoing climate changes. In this study the influence of different factors and mechanisms determining slope stability is investigated, based on a case study of the Tschierva rock fall event. The Tschierva rock fall occurred on October 19, 1988 from the western flank of Piz Morteratsch (3751 m asl, Engadin, Switzerland) on Tschierva glacier with an estimated volume of approximately 0.3x10 6 m 3 . The rock mass detached at about 3200 m a.s.l. and fell on the Tschierva glacier probably incorporating additional rock-debris from the slope below the detachment zone and stopped on the glacier at an elevation of about 2700 m a.s.l. The primary objective of the presented study is the back-analysis of the Tschierva rock fall and the investigation of possible geological, geomechanical and climate-related glaciological disposition factors. Therefore, the detachment zone is investigated in a multidisciplinary approach based on in-situ geological field work, associated geotechnical investigations, morphometric analyses, permafrost modelling, glaciation history and subsequent numerical stability modelling with UDEC (Universal Distinct Element Code by Itasca). Based on these analyses, the influence and sensitivity of the different factors and processes on the slope failures is assessed. Numerical slope stability modeling was performed to examine different scenarios of possible failure mechanisms. Modelling of the unloading of the pleistocene glacial overburden showed that subsequent redistribution of stress and strain fields in the flank have a strongly controlling influence on the geometry of the detachment zone by the opening of unloading joints. A sensitivity analysis of geotechnical parameters additionally showed that the cohesion of the discontinuities was a fundamental parameter. Coupled hydro-mechanical modeling demonstrated that slope stability was very sensitive to changes in water pressure. The existing fault zone crossing the rock slope induced an elevated water inflow due to the higher permeability and might therefore be, together with the long-lasting effects of ice unloading, a main factor for the slope instability. In conclusion, our analysis could identify some essential factors of slope stability in relation with the geological setting, glacier retreat and permafrost degradation. However, it has also shown that the understanding of the physical processes and the adequate integration in numerical slope stability models needs more research, in particular in view of the hazards that are to be faced.
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