climigration and lake chad: an example from nigeria - World Lake ...

CLIMIGRATION AND LAKE CHAD: AN EXAMPLE FROM NIGERIA
EDIANG O A,EDIANG A. A,SHOLADEMI M.O(MRS),EKHAMEYE P.O
NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
PMB1215 OSHODI LAGOS
NIGERIA.
+2347033466011
EDIANG2000@YAHOO.COM
The hydrological basin of lake Chad is shared between Algeria,Cameroon,Central
Africa Republic,Chad,Niger,Nigeria,Sudan and some extend Libya.In the last four
decades, the hydrological regimes of lake Chad has changed.The changes
apparently reduced the water supply security for the population and
economy(fishery and food production) in the Chad basin. The decline in the lake
level is attributed to reduced rainfall(as result of the recent climate change) and
Droughts. The research paper conclude that there is teleconnection between
climigration in Nigeria and lake Chad. This is evidence because climate change in
Nigeria is having a very real impact and needs urgent attention especially in internal
displacement of its people and one of the easieiest ways of adapting to climate
variability in Nigeria is internal migration.
INTRODUCTION
DEFINITION
Climigration has been coined as a word to describe this type of displacement.
Climigration occurs when a community is no longer. Sustainable exclusively
because of climate-related events and permanent relocation is required to
protect people. The Critical elements are that climatic events are on-going
and repeatedly impact public. Infrastructure and threaten people’s safety so
that loss of life is possible.
Drought is defined variously as follows:
1. Meteorologically: As rainless situation for an extended period during
which some precipitation should normally have
been received depending on location and season.
II. Agricultural: As a shortage of soil moisture available to crop

which results in considerable yield reduction.
III. Hydrologically: As being responsible for depression of surface and
underground water levels or diminution of stream
flow.
AREA OF STUDY
The Lake Chad (GIWA region 43) situated in central Africa between 6 0 –
24 0 N and 8 0 – 24 0 E is a vast expanse of land of several catchments. The
geographical basin covers an area of 2434000km 2 which represents 8% of
surface area of the African Continent. This geographical basin is shared
between countries of Algeria, Cameroon Central Republic (CAR), Chad,
Libya, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan with area coverage per country (Eros Daba
Centre, 2002).FIG 1.
PHYSICAL SITUATION:
The region is bounded to the north by the Ahaggar mountains in Algeria,
from this summit, the border descends southwards towards the Tibesti
Highland that forms the border between Libya and Chad, and continues to
about 19 0 N near the Djebed Mara Volcanic Mountains in Sudan. The
Southern border is define by the Mongos Hills in CAR and the Adamawa
mountains at about 6 0 N and further west by the Mandaras. In the Northern
Cameroon at the proximately 10 0 N. The Jos Plateau marks the Western
boundary in the Nigerian Sector of the basin and further north the Air
Plateau in Niger.
Climate Situation
The conventional Basin of lake Chad area is divided in three climatic
regions:
- Sahara Zone at the North is desert climate with low animal rainfall
(less than 200mm) and variables temperature (maximum 47 0 C and
12 0 C minimum)
- Sahelian Zone between the 12 – 16 th North Parallels with rainfall from
200 – 700mm.
- Sudanese Zone characterized by a semi and to humid climate. The
rainfall varies between 700 – 1200mm and the mean temperature is
about 280C lowest humidity is 51% while the highest is 96%.

The study also covers 123 stations in the Sudano-Sahdian part of Nigeria.
All the twelve stations have two distinct seasons of dry and wet periods Dry
season covers up to a period of about seven (7) to eight (8) months from
October to April / May, while the wet season is about four (4) to five(5)
months from May to September.
Dry Season lasts longer than the rainy season in this region study where
agricultural activities are the mainstay of the economy. So, a clear
understanding of these phenomena will go along way in reducing the
negative consequences on plant and animals, and migration of human beings.
As pointed out by Obasi (1997) climate shape our culture, many of our
settlements and all our land. Sealps, it largely determines food production
and its variability also causes famine.
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
(1) Who is migrating away from situations of environmental degradation /
change?
(2) Where are environmentally induced migrants coming from and where
are they going to?
(3) Why have people migrated? (i.e what role has environmental
degradation or change played?]
(4) How does environmental degradation interplay with other social,
economic and political factors in decisions about migrating?
(5) What might prevent people from migrating when they are faced with
environmental degradation (i.e what assistance was needed, what was
lacking]
(6) What is the role of people’s perception of environmental degradation
in triggering them to move?
(7) Why do some people remain in areas of environmental degradation /
change while others migrate? [i.e what are their coping/adaption
strategies and capacities].

(8) How does environmentally induced migration occur. (e.g choice of
destination networks used] [EACH-FOR-2009, project conducted
field work in six regions of the world].
KEY FINDINGS
Norman Mysers and Cardy (1994) has reviewed the possible impact of
global warming and change on migration pressures and suggested that there
might be as many as 150 million environmental refuges by the year 2050.
This would represent an increase of 1.5% of the then world population
compared with 02% at present also future climate migration will take place
against a background of unprecedented changes in the number and
distribution of the world’s population. The Global Population is currently
growing at an annual rate of 1.1% and is predicted to peak at 9.075 billion
by 2050 [from its 2005 level of 6.54 billion], Oli Brown (2009) while one of
the easiest ways of adapting to climate variability in Nigeria is internal
migration, Ujah Oliver Chinedu [2009].
ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH
CLIMATE CHANGE
The decline in the lake level is attributed to reduced rainfall [as result of the
recent climatic change], and droughts [ according to Nichola (1980 in Goni,
2002]from the historical record there are records of droughts from 1680 – 90,
1730 – 60 and 1820 – 40 in addition to the recent drought during the 1970s]
as well as abstractions from influent rivers, excessive evaporation (2000 to
3000mm/year), and greatly increased amount of irrigation water being
drawn from the lake. Since the lake levels are important for regional
hydrological investigations [masson et al; 1994). Lake Chad is very shallow
with an average depth of 11 meters and maximum water level of about 283
meters above sea level. FIG 1
In Nigeria, agricultural yields ranged 12 and 40% of the annual averages
(Oguntoyinbo and Richard, 1977) during the drought. Also Khaili (1974)
estimated that about 300,00 animals, representing about 13% of the total
livestock population of the Northern Eastern State [Now Adamawa, Bauchi,
Borno, Taraba and Yobe states] perished during the 1973 drought. The
drastic reduction in water volume at both Kanji Lake and Lake Chad during
the same drought resulted in only about 10,000 tons of fish caught in 1973 as
compared to an average annual of 28,000 tons [Mijidadi and Adegbehin,
1991]. Similarly, during the 1972-73 drought for example 75,000 inhabitants
of Mali and Niger bought refuge in the Algerian Sahara. In the 1984 – 85

drought as many as 40,000 also left their houses. During the latest drought of
the nioties, an estimated two mullion people left their hosues from five
Sahilian countries – Burkina Faso, Mali Mauritania, Niger and Chad.
Nouakchott, the capital of Muritania Saw is population increase fourfold in
1985. FIG.2.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARATERISTICS
The main activities predominant within the conventional basin are notaly (a)
Agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery. All these activities are closely
tied to the water resources within the basin. The agriculturists are Sedentary
whereas traditional animal husbandry is mainly nomadic. The number of
animals within the conventional basin increases continuously. The fishery is
mainly traditional and is practiced on the rivers and streams, the Lake Chad,
Ponds and flood plain.
The country member states of LCBC are among the poorest in the world and
are characterize by extremely slow and variable economic growth (eg. Chad
was ranked 155 th out of 162 countries according to UNDP’s human
Development index, with per capital income of only 2008US. Also infant,
the 1999 UNDP’s Human Development report and the Nigerian Human
development report (Ebosele and Sofala, 1999) revealed that Nigeria ranked
among the 25 poorest nation in the world. That was a remarkable departure
from its previous rank among the richest countries in the world; Ebosele and
Sololo 1999:15). In other words, the number of people living below the
poverty line increased from 43% in 1992 to over 65% in 1997 (Okun-
Madewa 1995). Thus poverty is the primary threat to food insecurity.
MAJOR PROBLEMS OF THE LAKE CHAD BASIN
The major problems of the Lake Chad Basin includes Rainfall Pattern, water
balance, soil type, drought and desertification, environmental degradation,
population, poverty level, Absence of water policies, institutional weakness.
Only few of these problems will be explain.
Institution Weakness
- Poor Management Negative Competition for resources
- Diminishing resources base [natural constraints]
- No legal instrument to facilitate trans-boundary management
- Inadequate Funding
Environmental Degradation

The natural cause highlighted above together with man-made. Causes such
as upstream dam construction, land degradation, soil erosion deforestation
and bush burning have erected serious environmental degradation problems.
Population
Population growth is another major problem in the basin. By the year 2025
the population of the basin is projected to be over 36 million from the
current figure of 22 million. Population explosion and migration in pursuit
of means of livelihood by the Pastoralists, fisherman and environmental
refuges as a result of desertification lead to competitions for scare water
resources in the basin resulting into conflict.
Conclusion
Climate change will significantly affect migration in three distinct ways.
First, the effects of warming and drying in some regions will reduce
agricultural potential and undermine ecosystem services such as clean water
and fertile soil. Second, the increase in extreme weather events – in
particular, heavy precipitation and resulting flash or river floods in tropical
regions – will affect ever more people and generate mass displacement.
Finally, sea-level rise will permanently destroy extensive and highly
productive low-lying coastal areas that are home to millions of people who
will have to relocate permanently.
In conclusion, the analysis show that migration propensities are higher in
districts with more natural resources scarcity and that migration did not
increase in times of environmental stress in the source areas of migration
due to adverse economic conditions in the prime destination area.
The picture that emerges from Northern Nigeria close to Lake Chad is not
one of distress migration in the face of environmental disaster. The
environmental driver of migration from Northern Nigeria close to Lake

Chad appears to be structural scarcity rather than degradation.
MIN. TEMPERATURE(oC)
MIN. TEMPERATURE(oC)
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE(oC)
MIN. TEMPERATURE(oC)
22.5
21.5
20.5
19.5
24
23.5
23
22.5
22
21.5
21
FIG 1.
22
21
20
1951
33
32
31
30
29
22.5
22
21.5
21
20.5
20
1951
1951
1954
1951
1953
1954
1955
1954
1957
1957
1957
1957
1959
1961
1960
1960
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTHERN STATIONS
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
YEARS
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
y = 0.0251x + 30.603
MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVER NIGERIA
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
YEARS
1981
1984
1987
1989
1990
1991
1993
1993
1995
1997
1999
y = 0.0293x + 20.43
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR NORTHERN STATIONS
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
YEARS
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTHERN STATIONS
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
YEARS
1981
1981
1984
1984
1987
1987
1996
1990
1999
1990
2001
2002
2003
1993
1993
2005
2005
TMAX
MEAN
Linear (TMAX)
Min
Mean
Linear (Min)
y = 0.0209x + 19.763
1996
1999
2002
y = 0.0251x + 21.622
1996
1999
2002
2005
2005
TMIN
MEAN
Linear (TMIN)
TMIN
MEAN
Linear (TMIN)

Mean Maximum Temperature (oC)
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (oC)
34
33
32
31
35
34
33
32
31
1951
1951
FIG 2.(BELOW)
1953
1954
1955
1957
1957
FOR EXAMPLE – Temperature rise:
1959
1961
1963
1965
Mean Maximum Temperature over Nigeria
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
YEARS
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
y = 0.0195x + 31.751
MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR NORTHERN STATIONS
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
YEARS
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
y = 0.0139x + 32.899
1996
1999
2002
2005
Max
Mean
Linear (Max)
TMAX
MEAN
Linear (TMAX)

References:
Tellro, Nadj Wai (2005): The
influence on the water resources
management of the Lake Chad from

national policies of member states of Lake Chad Basin commission. 11 th
World Lake Conference Nairobi, Kenya, 31 October to 4 th November, 2005
pages 82 – 86’.
Ngounou, Ngatcha Benjamin (2005): Towards sustainable development of
the environ mentally degraded Lake Chad Basin, Central Africa, 11 th world
Lake Conference Nairobi, Kenya 31 October to 4 th November, 2005 pages
48 – 53.
Ediang Okuku archibong and Ediang Aniekan Archibong (2003): Drought,
food sustainability and crime in the Sudano – Sahdia Part of Nigeria,
Nigerian Metrological Society Regional Conference Proceedings 11 – 14
November 2003, pages 47 – 53.
Obasi G.O.P (1997): forward to WMO and Climate Change Publication
2000.
Emmanuel Oladipo (19997): Drought, desertification and drought research
priorities for the African Region – South of the Sahara. Nigerian
Meteorological Society Publication No. 8, Page 8.
Cardy F.W (1994): Environment and forced migration, paper presented at
the 4 th International research and Advisory panel on the new direction in
research on forced migration university of Oxford, January 1994.
Koko Warneret at (2008): field observations and empirical research; forced
migration review. Issue 31 October 2008, pages 13.
Robin Bronen (2008): Alaskan Communities Rights and resilience forced
migration review: issues 31. October 2008, pages 31
Ujah Oliver chinedu (2008): Internal displacement in Nigeria. Forced
Migration review. Issues 31. October 2008, pages 37
What is EACH-FOR
European Commission sponsored the Environmental change and forced
scenarios.

Project to assess the impact of environmental change on migration at the
Local, National, Regional and International Level.
CAR- Central Africa Region.
LCBC – Lake Chad Basin Commission.