Sheraton Hotel Redding At Sundial Bridge - Redding Record ...

Premise of Forecast
Fixed and Variable
Component Analysis
Inflation Assumption
Summary of
Projections
The comparables’ departmental income ranged from 59.5% to 68.9% of total
revenue. The comparable properties achieved a house profit ranging from 29.0%
to 45.6% of total revenue. We will refer to the comparable operating data in our
discussion of each line item, which follows later in this section of the report.
In 2010, occupancy gains have been considerable on a nationwide basis and, in
many markets, average rates began to show signs of recovery beginning in the
second half of the year. With demand recovery established in 2010, hotel
operators are expected to continue to pursue price increases for 2011. Operators
and investors in the market anticipate an acceleration of revenue growth
thereafter as the economy and lodging market gain traction in the recovery; this
outlook is reflected in our forecasts. Strong RevPAR growth and continued
monitoring of expenses are anticipated to positively affect the overall net
operating income.
HVS uses a fixed and variable component model to project a lodging facility's
revenue and expense levels. This model is based on the premise that hotel
revenues and expenses have one component that is fixed and another that varies
directly with occupancy and facility usage. A projection can be made by taking a
known level of revenue or expense and calculating its fixed and variable
components. The fixed component is then increased in tandem with the underlying
rate of inflation, while the variable component is adjusted for a specific measure of
volume such as total revenue.
A general rate of inflation must be established that will be applied to most revenue
and expense categories. The following table shows inflation estimates made by
economists at some noted institutions and corporations.
In consideration of the most recent trends, the projections set forth previously,
and our assessment of probable property appreciation levels, we have applied an
underlying inflation rate of 2.0% in 2012/13, 2.0% in 2013/14, and 3.0% in
2014/15 and thereafter. This stabilized inflation rate takes into account normal,
recurring inflation cycles. Inflation is likely to fluctuate above and below this level
during the projection period. Any exceptions to the application of the assumed
underlying inflation rate are discussed in our write-up of individual income and
expense items.
Based on an analysis that will be detailed throughout this section, we have
formulated a forecast of income and expense. The following table presents a
detailed forecast through the fifth projection year, including amounts per available
room and per occupied room. The second table illustrates our ten-year forecast of
income and expense, presented with a lesser degree of detail. The forecasts pertain
to years beginning June 1, 2012 and are expressed in inflated dollars for each year.
February-2011 Income Capitalization Approach
Sheraton Hotel Redding At Sundial Bridge – Redding, California 74