the united republic of tanzania health sector hiv and aids strategic plan

the united republic of tanzania health sector hiv and aids strategic plan the united republic of tanzania health sector hiv and aids strategic plan

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more intensively with NGOs and bilateral and international agencies. From 2000 the responsibility of coordinating the national response was shifted to the Prime Minister’s Office under TACAIDS. In 2002, the Health Sector Strategy for HIV and AIDS (2003-2006) was developed, followed in 2004 with the first National HIV and AIDS Care and Treatment Plan (NCTP) which ushered in large-scale antiretroviral treatment for PLHIV in the country. 1.2.3. Programmatic and financial gaps 1.2.3.1. Programmatic gaps The major programmatic gaps include coverage and quality of services and the weak referral and coordination system between institutions. Some key programmes are indicated in the Table 4 below. Efforts have been made to date to design, build support for and implement effective referral networks that respect confidentiality and patient choice while creating a continuity of care and support. 18 |FINAL COMBINED-HSHSP 2008-2012: June 24 th 2007 Table 4: Programmatic Gap Analysis of selected interventions Actual Anticipated Estimated Comments 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 A. People in NEED of Key Services : Testing and Counseling 16,427,834 21,710,169 22,436,576 23,218,500 24,030,512 24,466,266 25,051,010 PMTCT 1,400,000 1,509,000 1,560,000 1,611,870 1,665,300 1,695,720 1,727,700 Anti Retro Viral (ARVs) 294,344 (75,000 + 80% of pop in need) 303,942 (100,000 +90% of pop in need) 342,000 (220,000+ 64% of pop in need) 470,000 B. People CURRENTLY RECEIVING or ANTICIPATED TO RECEIVE (TARGET) Key Services : Testing and Counseling 427,000 (2005) 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 2,200,000 PMTCT 377,913 750,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 ARVs 58,671 79,181 (By May) 150,000 220,000 310,000 400,000 (85% of pop. in need) C. UNMET NEED OR GAP in terms of people in need of Key Services (A 1 – B 1 = C 1 , A 2 – B 2 = C 2 etc.) Testing & Counseling 16,000,834 21,236,576 21,818,500 22,230,512 22,466,266 22,8510,010 PMTCT 1,033,887 759,300 660,000 411,000 365,300 295,720 227,000 ARVs 219,344 123,750 70,000 SOURCE: REPORTS ON UNIVERSAL ACCESS AND TARGET SETTING Population aged above 15 or 15- 49yr Calculations are based on women who get pregnant each year 10% of persons on treatment will have died in the first year, 20% in the second year etc. Half of eligible persons will die without treatment within the first year Increase from 25% to 40% of pop. 15-49

1.2.3.2. Financial Contributions to National Response and gaps The total need is calculated based on HIV and AIDS interventions, Human resource for health and health facilities from the report “Mkukuta Based MDGs Costings for the Health Sub-sector” done in 2006. The financial resource requirement and projections are based on the report “Assessment of the Human and Financial Resources for the Revised HIV and AIDS National Multi-sectoral Strategic Framework” done in 2007. Table 5: Current and Projected Financial Gap Analysis Totals 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Domestic (A) Million US$ Million US$ Million US$ Million US$ Million US$ Million US$ Best case scenario 46.6 55.4 64.2 73 81.9 321.1 Middle case scenario 37.4 40.1 45.5 51 56.4 230.4 Worst case scenario 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.4 122.6 Total External (B) Best case scenario 318.1 351.2 382.4 413.5 444.6 1,909.8 Middle case scenario 288.1 307.2 326.6 345.9 365.4 1,633.2 Worst case scenario 241.6 255.5 269.5 283.4 297.4 1,347.4 Total resources available (A+B) Best case scenario 364.7 406.6 446.6 486.5 526.5 2,230.9 Middle case scenario 325.3 347.3 372.1 396.9 421.8 1,863.4 Worst case scenario 264.2 279.1 294 308.9 323.8 1,470 Total need (C) Best & Expensive case scenario 381.8 429.8 483.8 354.2 636.9 2,286.5 Middle case scenario 364 401.9 443.9 300.6 567.6 2,078 Worst case scenario 364 401.9 443.9 300.6 567.6 2,078 Unmet need (C)-(A+B) Best & expensive case scenario 17.1 23.2 37.2 132.3 110.4 320.2 Middle case scenario 38.7 54.6 71.8 96.3 145.8 310.9 Worst case scenario 38.7 54.6 71.8 8.3 145.8 310.9 SOURCES: Developed For the Plan From- “Mkukuta Based MDGs Costings for the Health Sub-Sector, 2006” and “Assessment of the Human and Financial Resources for the Revised HIV and AIDS National Multi-sectoral Strategic Framework, 2007” Table 5 shows that there are gaps in meeting the demands of HIV interventions in the next five years and these gaps increase over time. 19 |FINAL COMBINED-HSHSP 2008-2012: June 24 th 2007

1.2.3.2. Financial Contributions to National Response <strong>and</strong> gaps<br />

The total need is calculated based on HIV <strong>and</strong> AIDS interventions, Human resource for <strong>health</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>health</strong><br />

facilities from <strong>the</strong> report “Mkukuta Based MDGs Costings for <strong>the</strong> Health Sub-<strong>sector</strong>” done in 2006. The<br />

financial resource requirement <strong>and</strong> projections are based on <strong>the</strong> report “Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Human <strong>and</strong><br />

Financial Resources for <strong>the</strong> Revised HIV <strong>and</strong> AIDS National Multi-<strong>sector</strong>al Strategic Framework”<br />

done in 2007.<br />

Table 5: Current <strong>and</strong> Projected Financial Gap Analysis<br />

Totals<br />

2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12<br />

Domestic (A)<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Million<br />

US$<br />

Best case scenario 46.6 55.4 64.2 73 81.9 321.1<br />

Middle case scenario 37.4 40.1 45.5 51 56.4 230.4<br />

Worst case scenario 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.5 26.4 122.6<br />

Total External (B)<br />

Best case scenario 318.1 351.2 382.4 413.5 444.6 1,909.8<br />

Middle case scenario 288.1 307.2 326.6 345.9 365.4 1,633.2<br />

Worst case scenario 241.6 255.5 269.5 283.4 297.4 1,347.4<br />

Total resources available<br />

(A+B)<br />

Best case scenario 364.7 406.6 446.6 486.5 526.5 2,230.9<br />

Middle case scenario 325.3 347.3 372.1 396.9 421.8 1,863.4<br />

Worst case scenario 264.2 279.1 294 308.9 323.8 1,470<br />

Total need (C)<br />

Best & Expensive case<br />

scenario 381.8 429.8 483.8 354.2 636.9 2,286.5<br />

Middle case scenario 364 401.9 443.9 300.6 567.6 2,078<br />

Worst case scenario 364 401.9 443.9 300.6 567.6 2,078<br />

Unmet need (C)-(A+B)<br />

Best & expensive case<br />

scenario 17.1 23.2 37.2 132.3 110.4 320.2<br />

Middle case scenario 38.7 54.6 71.8 96.3 145.8 310.9<br />

Worst case scenario 38.7 54.6 71.8 8.3 145.8 310.9<br />

SOURCES: Developed For <strong>the</strong> Plan From- “Mkukuta Based MDGs Costings for <strong>the</strong> Health Sub-Sector,<br />

2006” <strong>and</strong> “Assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Human <strong>and</strong> Financial Resources for <strong>the</strong> Revised HIV <strong>and</strong> AIDS National<br />

Multi-<strong>sector</strong>al Strategic Framework, 2007”<br />

Table 5 shows that <strong>the</strong>re are gaps in meeting <strong>the</strong> dem<strong>and</strong>s <strong>of</strong> HIV interventions in <strong>the</strong> next five years <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>se gaps increase over time.<br />

19 |FINAL COMBINED-HSHSP 2008-2012: June 24 th 2007

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