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Network logic performance of participants in information markets and create weighting schemes that will predict future events, even if they are not the same event on which the performance was measured.’ 15 Decades ago, computer scientists thought that some day there would be forms of ‘artificial intelligence’ but, with the exception of a few visionaries, they never thought in terms of computer-equipped humans as a kind of social intelligence. Although everyone who understands the use of statistical techniques to make predictions hastens to add a disclaimer that surprises are inevitable, and one of the fundamental characteristics of complex adaptive systems is their unpredictability, the initial findings that internet-worked groups of human beings can exhibit emergent prediction capabilities are potentially profound. Another research group that takes emergent group intelligence seriously is the laboratory at Los Alamos, where a group of ‘artificial life’ researchers issued a report in 1998, ‘Symbiotic intelligence: selforganising knowledge on distributed networks, driven by human interaction’. 16 The premise of this interdisciplinary team is based on the view proposed by some in recent years that human society is an adaptive collective organism and that social evolution parallels and unfolds according to the same dynamics as biological evolution. 17 According to this theory, new knowledge and new technologies have made possible the evolution of the maximum size of the functioning social group from tribes to nations to global coalitions. The knowledge and technology that triggered the jump from clan to tribe to nation to market to network all shared one characteristic: they each amplified the way individual humans think and communicate, and magnified their ability to share what they know. The research conducted directly by the Los Alamos researchers reinforced Huberman et al’s claims that groups of humans, linked through online networks, can make collective decisions that prove more accurate than the performance of the best individual predictors in the group. If it isn’t a dead end, the lines of research opened by Huberman’s team, the Los Alamos researchers and others could amplify the powers of smart mobs into entirely new dimensions of 200 Demos
Smart mobs possibility, the way Moore’s Law amplified the powers of computer users. Conclusion Will self-organised, ad hoc networks of computer wearers, mediated by privacy-protecting agents, blossom into a renaissance of new wealth, knowledge and revitalised civil society, or will the same technological–social regime provide nothing more than yet another revenue stream for Disinfotainment, Inc.? Or is that the wrong question? Given the direction of the technological, economic and political changes I have touched on, I propose the following questions: What do we know now about the emergent properties of ad hoc mobile computing networks, and what do we need to know in the future? What are the central issues for individuals in a world pervaded by surveillance devices – in terms of what we can do about it? What are the long-term consequences of near-term political decisions on the way we’ll use and be affected by mobile, pervasive, always-on media? Smart mobs aren’t a ‘thing’ that you can point to with one finger or describe with two words, any more than ‘the internet’ was a ‘thing’ you could point to. The internet is what happened when a lot of computers started communicating. The computer and the internet were designed, but the ways people used them were not designed into either technology, nor were the most world-shifting uses of these tools anticipated by their designers or vendors. Word processing and virtual communities, eBay and e-commerce, Google and weblogs and reputation systems emerged. Smart mobs are an unpredictable but at least partially describable emergent property that I see surfacing as more people use mobile telephones, more chips communicate with each other, more computers know where they are located, more Demos 201
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Network Logic Who governs in an int
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About Demos Demos is a greenhouse f
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Open access. Some rights reserved.
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Network logic 10. Your friendship n
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We are some way from being able to
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Network logic urban communities, re
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Network logic a weblog called DearR
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Network logic Power The changing na
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Network logic Boundaries of identit
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Network logic framework for the und
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3. Towards a theory of government K
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Seeing the connectedness of things
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Network logic against risk: protect
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Network logic the actions to tackle
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Editors’ note A significant featu
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5. Untangling the threads networks,
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Untangling the threads Given the co
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Asked about leadership, most people
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Disparities of wealth appear as a l
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women’s networking movement. This
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Your friendship networks government
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Your friendship networks Figure 1 N
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Network logic Enhancing service del
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