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Network logic enabling billions of people to be online all the time they want to be. These sets of information utilities evolving around the world represent an emerging ‘global information infrastructure’. What makes this emergence possible – indeed, inevitable – is partly the continuing pace of technological change: Moore’s law will still enable the underlying microelectronics technology to deliver a doubling of price-performance every 18 months for the next 10–20 years; storage technology – hard discs, CDs, flash memory and so on – is getting cheaper even faster than this, with really disruptive new technologies in the pipeline such as atomic resolution storage and holographic memory. But it is also the result of the demand-side pressures unleashed by the new and radical capabilities that this infrastructure will possess, and the useful (or simply delightful) applications to which they may be put. Behind the wall We are already seeing the first generation of the worldwide information utility in the form of e-science Grids building on the internet and the World Wide Web. Already today’s internet and telecommunications infrastructure probably comprises at least ten billion computers and 100 exabytes (100 billion billion bytes) of data. At least 600 million people can currently access the internet, which carries about 4 billion emails per day, and between 1 and 2 billion people worldwide now have phones. The information utility will be qualitatively unlike any previous global communication system such as road, rail, air or telephone networks. It will consist of huge amounts of interconnected data and computing power, and it will be able to interact through the wall with tens of billions of smart devices of all kinds, and through them with billions of people. In this way it will progressively exhibit more and more ‘intelligence’. We are already seeing the rise of ‘intelligent’ software and machine learning, as the ability of humans to design and programme large systems reaches its limits. The rich interconnection between elements of the infrastructure will mean that a software object that turns out to be powerful and useful for some particular 180 Demos
The information utility task will be able to replicate, spread and ‘jump species’ around the infrastructure in many fewer ‘generations’ than we see in biological systems. Evolution through incremental enhancement and (often unpredictable) adaptation will become a key paradigm. We have already reached the stage when the global communications infrastructure can no longer be thought of as ‘a system’ in the traditional, hard engineering sense of the word. It has no specification. It was not designed by any one person or organisation, nor is it implemented, owned, operated or maintained by any recognisable single authority. It is never the same from one access to the next so faults cannot be reproduced. The underlying engineering principles and protocols are based on having to know as little as possible about what is going on in the infrastructure, rather than knowing as much as possible; the old IT tradition of ‘full documentation’ is long gone. Instead it may be more appropriate to think of the utility as a system in the biological sense of a living, complex, adaptive whole, continuously evolving through the collaboration of many autonomous subsystems. A crucial property of such large sets of cooperating elements is that they collectively display ‘emergent behaviour’, which is not readily predictable from a knowledge of the individual elements. Emergent behaviours come from systems involving decision-making entities, like the way ant colonies organise their collective activities to discover and retrieve food. An emergent behaviour involving the internet itself is spamming. About 50 per cent of all the email on the internet this year is spam, up from 2 per cent a couple of years ago. In front of the wall Our understanding of emergent behaviours in complex systems is still very primitive, but will have to become highly sophisticated if we are to grasp the full implications of the world of the information utility, a world populated not just by billions of people and smart things but also by a huge cloud of ‘agents’ of many different kinds. Some of these will be designed to make our lives easier by mediating our interactions with the infrastructure, carrying out tasks and Demos 181
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Network Logic Who governs in an int
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About Demos Demos is a greenhouse f
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Open access. Some rights reserved.
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Network logic 10. Your friendship n
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We are some way from being able to
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Network logic urban communities, re
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Network logic a weblog called DearR
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Seeing the connectedness of things
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Editors’ note A significant featu
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women’s networking movement. This
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