Transmission Ten-Year Development Plan 2011-2020 - Eskom
Transmission Ten-Year Development Plan 2011-2020 - Eskom
Transmission Ten-Year Development Plan 2011-2020 - Eskom
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4<br />
Analysis of the various factors and the practicalities and<br />
likelihood of implementation of the different scenarios<br />
showed that the “Risk-adjusted emission portfolio<br />
(MYPD capacity)” scenario was the most likely one to<br />
manifest. This was the recommended and expected IRP<br />
scenario.<br />
Therefore the TDP Generation <strong>Plan</strong> for the period <strong>2011</strong><br />
to <strong>2020</strong> is based on this scenario as detailed in the IRP<br />
report. The detail of this plan is discussed below:<br />
Return to Service stations<br />
The Return-to-Service (RTS) units at Grootvlei and<br />
Komati power stations are approved projects which are<br />
assumed to be completed in 2010 and <strong>2011</strong> as per the<br />
project schedules.<br />
DoE OCGT power stations<br />
The IRP indicates that the Department of Energy (DoE)<br />
will implement the two OCGT power stations in <strong>2011</strong>.<br />
These are assumed to be as previously proposed by the<br />
DoE with one close to the Dedisa MTS and the other<br />
close to the Avon MTS. They will be based on 147MW<br />
units and will be modelled as follows:<br />
• 2 x 147MW units at Dedisa<br />
• 5 x 147MW units at Avon<br />
These are treated as peaking plant in the TDP studies<br />
and are used under contingency conditions or if required<br />
<strong>Transmission</strong> <strong>Ten</strong>-<strong>Year</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> <strong>2011</strong>-<strong>2020</strong><br />
during system peak, but for integration studies, they are<br />
studied at full output under system peak conditions to<br />
ensure that all the power can be evacuated.<br />
REFIT Renewable Generation<br />
The REFIT programme will be going out for procurement<br />
in the near future. The REFIT offers special tariffs for the<br />
following renewables:<br />
• Wind<br />
• Small hydro<br />
• Landfill gas<br />
• Concentrating solar thermal<br />
• Solar photovoltaic<br />
The total REFIT generation is expected to be 725MW,<br />
with wind generation allocated 400MW. There is<br />
presently no indication of the REFIT applicants that will<br />
be granted licences by NERSA, and they are widely<br />
dispersed geographically. The 325MW of REFIT stations<br />
other than wind are not modelled for purposes of the<br />
TDP due to the uncertainties surrounding both their<br />
location and output.<br />
The 400MW REFIT Wind may be a small number of large<br />
wind farms or a large number of small wind farms. This<br />
makes it difficult to model in the transmission network<br />
files. Based on the location of wind and applications for<br />
wind generation connection, it has been decided to<br />
model the 400MW as four representative wind farms