Transmission Ten-Year Development Plan 2011-2020 - Eskom

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2 Chapter 5 deals with the national overview, which gives a high level explanation of the planned transmission infrastructure. This is intended to give a snapshot of the major projects that are planned for the entire Ten-year plan period and a high-level summary of the installed transmission infrastructure. Chapter 6 focuses on planned projects in detail and the impact they will have on the network. Generation integration and reliability projects are discussed per Grid. In both instances, sites and servitudes are required Transmission Ten-Year Plan 2011-2020 to accommodate substations and lines respectively. In either case, the Environmental Protection Act requires Eskom to conduct an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and obtain environmental approval, which includes consultation with affected stakeholders, prior to construction. Chapter 7 deals with the capital expenditure of the ten-year plan. Chapter 8 deals with various conclusions based on the content of this document. 2. Load Demand Forecast and Generation Scenarios 2.1 LOAD FORECAST Load forecasting is a fundamental requirement for a Transmission planning cycle. Availability of sufficient transmission network capacity in any country is important for economic growth. Grid Planning, in consultation with the relevant Distribution regions, compiles a forecast per point of supply for the network computer model. The geographically differentiated loads indicate that the growth rates and load profiles differ substantially from one substation or area to another. The forecast that was used for the 2011 – 2020 TDP (2010 TDP) was developed using the 2009 July System peak load. The effects of the economic crisis have resulted in a significant impact on the demand in late 2008 and early 2009. Hence the load forecast presented in this report indicates relatively smaller system load demand as compared to the load forecast used in the 2010 – 2019 TDP (2009 TDP). See Figure 2-1, on the next page, that illustrates the difference. Due to the long lead times and EIA requirements, the transmission planning studies were based on this load forecast to provide enough time to initiate the necessary transmission infrastructure projects. The forecasted system peak demand for each year is given in Figure 2 1 on the next page including the percentage growth for each year for the latest forecast:.
Figure 2.1: The Eskom Transmission System Demand Forecast The planning studies for the TDP were based on meeting the 2010 TDP load forecast in Figure 2 1. Further monitoring and analysis of the load growth are being undertaken to determine more accurately the location of the new loads as a result of the economic recovery and progress on customer-initiated developments. For purposes of the TDP, loads are allocated to a CLN according to the location of the transmission substation supplying them, even if they are physically located in a different CLN. 2.2 GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS The existing generation capacity was included as fully installed generation capacity in the year of the study. Cahora Bassa power import was modelled at a maximum of 1200MW. The future approved power plant integration projects were incorporated in the year in which they are expected to be commissioned. The expected official release of the IRP was December 2009. In order to comply to the TDP process timelines, an assumed generation rollout has been detailed Transmission Demand Forecast 2010 TDP versus 2009 TDP based on the draft document “Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity 2009 Report – Version 1” which was complied by the System Operations and Planning Division in October 2009. This draft document was anticipated to be in line with the IRP. The generation plan in this report was then compared with the official IRP and any significant variances were to be highlighted. A number of scenarios were considered when developing the IRP. These were based on a reference plan with the impact of certain factors taken into account to develop the potential scenario. These scenarios were as follows: • Reference plan • Domestic emission (Emission Constraint 1) • Regional emission (Emission Constraint 2) • Delayed regional emission (Emission Constraint 3) • Carbon Tax • IPP alternates 1 • IPP alternates 2 • Lowest CO2 • Policy portfolio • Risk-adjusted emission portfolio (MYPD capacity) © Eskom 2011 3
Page 1 and 2: Public Version Transmission Ten-Yea
Page 3 and 4: Disclaimer The purpose of publishin
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents FOREWORD BY DIVIS
Page 7 and 8: LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1: Connectio
Page 9: 1. Introduction 1.1 CONTEXT OF THE
Page 13 and 14: of 100MW which represent a cumulati
Page 15 and 16: Potential imported power projects w
Page 17 and 18: 3.2 GENERATION ASSUMPTIONS The majo
Page 19 and 20: 5. National Overview The map in Fig
Page 21 and 22: horizon of the TDP up until 2030. T
Page 23 and 24: CLN Actual Peak Load 2009 (MW) Fore
Page 25 and 26: Johannesburg East Strengthening con
Page 27 and 28: 6.1.4 VAAL CN This CLN consists of
Page 29 and 30: The increase in transmission assets
Page 31 and 32: Figure 6.4: East Grid geographical
Page 33 and 34: The Northern Grid load growth is ma
Page 35 and 36: 6.3.2 RUSTENBURG CLN Rustenburg CLN
Page 37 and 38: 6.4 NORTH EAST GRID The North East
Page 39 and 40: Highveld North Reinforcement • Ro
Page 41 and 42: A network diagram showing the major
Page 43 and 44: The next stage of the reinforcement
Page 45 and 46: A network diagram showing the major
Page 47 and 48: The TDP schemes for the South Grid
Page 49 and 50: 6.6.3 KAROO CLN For the current net
Page 51 and 52: 6.7 WEST GRID The West Grid consist
Page 53 and 54: Cape Corridor 765kV - Phase 4 • C
Page 55 and 56: A diagram showing the major project
Page 57 and 58: Type Total R’mil Customer 6,100 G
Page 59 and 60: Appendix A: Generation Assumptions
Page 61 and 62:
APPENDIX B3A: COSTING FOR CENTRAL G
Page 63 and 64:
APPENDIX B3C: COSTING FOR WEST GRID
Page 65 and 66:
APPENDIX B3E: COSTING FOR NORTH-EAS
Page 67 and 68:
APPENDIX B3G: COSTING FOR NORTH GRI
Page 69 and 70:
Notes © Eskom 2011 61
Page 71 and 72:
Notes © Eskom 2011 63
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