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7.3 Table A Review of customer requirements REQUIREMENT AGREED BEING DEVELOPED Completed 6 0 Process improvements 35 9 Performance 26 2 Track quality 3 1 Track access 9 0 Renewals 5 0 Enhancement feasibility 69 20 Enhancement commitment 8 1 TOTAL 161 33 Table B Trends in freight activity by commodity (millions of gross tonne-kilometres) 7.3 Market growth Our customers currently operate around 1,600 freight trains a day on our network for more than 500 individual traffic flows,many of which run at least once a day. The background assumptions on mar ket growth that we made last year remain valid.These include service improvements and cost reductions by Railtrack and the freight operators,some policy encouragement from the Government to shift freight to rail and no fundamental changes to the industry’s structure. The short-term results are in line with expectations. As shown in Table B above, a smaller volume of (imported) coal is being moved over longer distances and remains the largest rail freight activity;international and intermodal traffic are increasing rapidly and there has been good progress in other areas. 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 GROWTH % PA GROWTH % PA GROWTH % PA COMMODITY ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL FORECAST LAST TWO YEARS NEXT FIVE YEARS NEXT TEN YEARS Coal 6899 6840 6711 8117 9931 22 0 0 Metals 3625 3722 4193 4531 4420 3 17 6 Construction 3709 3467 3004 3389 3871 14 10 6 Oil & Petroleum 3492 3331 3199 3265 3316 2 12 2 International 1183 2037 2311 2829 2801 10 41 15 Domestic intermodal 5009 5974 6294 7144 9088 20 15 9 Other 7713 6346 6909 7281 9915 20 39 17 TOTAL 31630 31717 32621 36556 43342 15 18 10 Source:Actual – Railtrack,Freightliner Forecast – DRS,EWS See freight growth graph in Section 6.3 We have used our customers’ forecasts for the next ten years,supported by the recent policy initiatives from the DETR,in planning the requirements to develop the network. These are also included in Table B and are about three times greater than the most recent industry-wide forecasts produced on behalf of the Rail Regulator in 1997.From this work, we have confirmed that the industry could achieve further annual growth in overall volume of at least 15% over the next five years.This growth could come, for example, from an increase of up to 200% in some current markets and from more than 200 new flows coming onto the network. Our customers currently operate around 1,600 freight trains a day on our network for more than 500 individual traffic flows 85
freight We can accommodate all forecast demand for at least the next five years 86 7.3 continued 7.4 This forecast would represent a tripling of rail freight activity by 2009 from the base level in 1996,against a background of sustained decline since the war. Of the forecast: • international traffic is expected to more than triple and become 10% of all rail freight activity. • deep-sea intermodal is set to increase by 150% to 20% of the total market. • new business yet to be won to rail needs to increase fivefold and become 40% of the total. • about 10% of the increase would result from an improvement in the network’s capability with three- quarters of that due to improvements in the loading gauge. However, achieving this growth will require a reappraisal of the economics of operating and investing in rail freight.We do not expect customers to be able to commit to using current or new capacity well in advance of them securing additional traffic. It would meet the Government’s policy objectives if we could keep our track access charges low, to encourage more freight by rail.This was the essence of the track access contract that we developed with EWS in 1997. Since then, rail freight volumes have increased by 12% a year while our income has grown at 2% and,in line with the policy set by the Rail Regulator in 1996,our freight business has recovered its avoidable costs in aggregate. Committing large sums of money to capacity which is needed a long time in the future, based on high-growth forecasts,is imprudent,particularly when the economics are unattractive to the investor. We are discussing this major issue with the industry’s stakeholders,especially in the light of the proposals outlined in the Sustainable Distribution policy document (see Section 1.6).For planning purposes, we have assumed that current track-access rates will continue. 7.4 Routeing strategy Together with our customers, we have analysed their expected increase in demand by source and destination, route section,speed band and time of day, including the benefits of improvements in the network’s capability. We have then compared this demand with the current capacity and capability of individual routes and the anticipated growth in passenger traffic. We have confirmed that we can accommodate this forecast demand for at least the next five years across the network.Looking ahead ten years, we have committed to our customers that we can carry their forecast volumes of freight together with all declared passenger requirements within our existing capacity and planned investments on 38 of our 45 routes.In total,these cover 60% of current and half of future traffic volume .We are now developing detailed timetabling solutions to confirm this conclusion. The remaining seven routes carry significant existing freight, and the majority of the growth.So, we have looked in more detail at: • growth on the key, longer-distance routes which handle the majority of traffic.These are the West Coast Main Line (WCML) including its connecting branches,the East Coast Main Line (ECML),the Great Western Main Line (GWML),the North London Line, the Glasgow and South Western Line (G&SW),the Midland Main Line (MML),routes between London and the Channel Tunnel, connections between Southampton and the WCML and routes via Birmingham connecting Derby to Reading and Bristol. • a number of key multiroute flows which account for around 40% of current volume, 60% of the forecast increase and,therefore, more than half of the volume expected in 2009.These flows include Scotland to East Midlands coal,traffic via the Channel Tunnel,the development of the Enterprise network,the Royal Mail business,deep-sea container traffic, domestic intermodal business,and steel traffic within and to and from South Wales and the North East.
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R A I LT R AC K 1 9 9 9 N E T WOR K
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1 introduction Page 12 1.1 Introduc
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4 foreword The 12 months since publ
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The market for rail services Since
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What the plans deliver The major de
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Progress since the 1998 NMS The tim
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In this section, we set out the str
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1.4 1.4 Context The periodic review
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We firmly believe that risk is best
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Integrated transport In the past 12
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The Network Management Statement is
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2.2 2.2 Consultation with our custo
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Of those who were satisfied,the mos
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We report on the substantial progre
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3.5 3.6 3.5 Year 2000 compliance an
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Examples of significant work Woking
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In this section, we set out what ne
Page 36 and 37: 4.2 4.2 Expenditure summary The mai
Page 38 and 39: 4.4 4.4 Renewals policy We have wor
Page 40 and 41: ecomes due for total renewal at the
Page 42 and 43: Continued improvement. The completi
Page 44 and 45: on the network.These safety improve
Page 46 and 47: Environmental commitments First, ov
Page 48 and 49: This section describes the impact o
Page 50 and 51: Table A Delays to train services RA
Page 52 and 53: Accessibility Category A Category B
Page 54 and 55: Table F Asset condition SPEED RESTR
Page 56 and 57: 5.4 5.4 Network utilisation Capacit
Page 58 and 59: Loading gauge This stipulates the m
Page 60 and 61: Electrification 38% of the rail net
Page 62 and 63: This section sets out our ambitious
Page 64 and 65: H e a t h r ow Express commenced se
Page 66 and 67: een discussed with customers,funder
Page 68 and 69: SUMMARIES OF KEYLOCATIONS IDENTIFIE
Page 70 and 71: 6.6 6.6 Stations and depots Discuss
Page 72 and 73: Major stations Last year, we report
Page 74 and 75: 6.8 6.9 6.8 Timetabling With an inc
Page 76 and 77: Table A Enhancement expenditure (£
Page 78 and 79: Enhancement schemes Previous commit
Page 80 and 81: NAME ANDDESCRIPTION OF SCHEME Paddi
Page 82 and 83: NAME ANDDESCRIPTION OF SCHEME Victo
Page 84 and 85: This section describes our plans fo
Page 88 and 89: • the impact of these flows on se
Page 90 and 91: Proposed gauge enhancements W10 gau
Page 92 and 93: Table C Loading gauge classificatio
Page 94 and 95: Table G Freight volume, income and
Page 96 and 97: Table H Summary of freight specific
Page 98 and 99: In this section, we show in more de
Page 100 and 101: B How Railtrack could get traveller
Page 102 and 103: 8.4 We have suggested to the Govern
Page 104 and 105: 8.5 Thameslink 2000 The primary obj
Page 106 and 107: Further developments include: • s
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Page 110 and 111: 9.2 9.3 9.2 The Parliament and loca
Page 112 and 113: S t a t i o n s . We have committed
Page 114 and 115: Key de velopments The map identifie
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Page 118 and 119: 10.3 10.3 Sustaining the network Si
Page 120 and 121: We will raise linespeed between Lon
Page 122 and 123: Table A Expenditure on maintenance,
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Page 126 and 127: 16 Great Eastern Main Line and bran
Page 128 and 129: Colour coding used on the Route Str
Page 130 and 131: Maintenance expenditure (£M - 1998
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Maintenance expenditure (£M - 1998
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A R West Coast Main Line upgrade sc
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These are the route improvements we
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These are the route improvements we
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Renewals expenditure to deliver the
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Progress on the 1998 NMS WILLESDEN
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Route characteristics DESCRIPTION T
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Our ECML upgrade scheme TAKING THIN
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Progress on the 1998 NMS SIGNALLING
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CAPABILITY CHANGES TO ACHIEVE ROUTE
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Progress on the 1998 NMS RELIABILIT
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6 Channel Tunnel routes SOUTHERN ZO
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6 178 Channel Tunnel routes continu
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7 Derby to Bristol and Didcot via B
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7 182 Derby to Bristol and Didcot v
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8 North Trans-Pennine: Liverpool to
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8 186 North Trans-Pennine: Liverpoo
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8 188 North Trans-Pennine: Liverpoo
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9 Birmingham and Coventry to Peterb
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9 192 Birmingham and Coventry to Pe
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10 Crewe to Newport via Shrewsbury
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10 Crewe to Newport via Shrewsbury
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11 Wolverhampton to Chester, Aberys
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11 Wolverhampton to Chester, Aberys
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12 Manchester and Crewe to North Wa
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12 Manchester and Crewe to North Wa
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13 Manchester to Sheffield and Nort
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13 Manchester to Sheffield and Nort
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14 Edinburgh to Glasgow, Glasgow an
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15 West Anglia Main Line and branch
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15 West Anglia Main Line and branch
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16 Great Eastern Main Line and bran
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16 Great Eastern Main Line and bran
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17 London, Tilbury and Southend EAS
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17 London, Tilbury and Southend con
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18 Chatham Main Line and North Kent
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18 Chatham Main Line and North Kent
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19 Brighton Main Line and South Lon
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20 South Coastal Route: Portsmouth
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20 South Coastal Route: Portsmouth
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21 London to Portsmouth and Weymout
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21 London to Portsmouth and Weymout
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22 Wessex routes GREAT WESTERN AND
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22 Wessex routes continued Renewals
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23 Clapham Junction to Reading and
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23 Clapham Junction to Reading and
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24 Isle of Wight: Ryde to Shanklin
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24 256 Isle of Wight: Ryde to Shank
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25 Chiltern Lines MIDLANDS ZONE Chi
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25 Chiltern lines continued These a
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26 North London Line EAST ANGLIA ZO
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26 North London Line continued Rene
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27 Cotswolds GREAT WESTERN ZONE Cen
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27 Cotswolds continued Renewals exp
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28 Cardiff Valleys GREAT WESTERN ZO
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28 Cardiff Valleys continued These
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29 West Wales GREAT WESTERN ZONE Wa
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29 West Wales continued Renewals ex
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30 West Midlands local routes MIDLA
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30 West Midlands local routes conti
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31 East Midlands local routes MIDLA
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31 East Midlands local routes conti
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32 Merseyside NORTH WEST ZONE FNW;
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32 Merseyside continued These are t
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33 Manchester to the coast NORTH WE
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33 Manchester to the coast continue
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34 Lancashire NORTH WEST ZONE FNW;
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34 Lancashire continued These are t
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35 Cumbria NORTH WEST ZONE FNW; DRS
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35 Cumbria continued Renewals expen
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36 Yorkshire LONDON NORTH EASTERN A
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36 Yorkshire continued These are th
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37 North East England LONDON NORTH
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37 North East England continued The
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38 South West Scotland SCOTLAND ZON
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38 South West Scotland continued Th
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39 Strathclyde SCOTLANDZONE GNER; S
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39 Strathclyde continued CAPABILITY
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39 Strathclyde continued Progress o
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42 Freight-only routes SOUTHERN ENG
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43 Freight-only routes MIDLANDS ZON
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44 Freight-only routes NORTHERN ENG
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45 Freight-only routes SCOTLAND ZON
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appendices 11 Appendices and glossa
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appendices 340 Appendix 1 Extracts
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appendices Appendix 4 Customer-reas
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abbreviations and glossary 344 A B
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abbreviations and glossary 346 H I
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abbreviations and glossary 348 S T
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1 9 9 9 N E T WORK M A N AG E M E N
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