R A I LT R AC K - The Railways Archive

developing
We believe that this
growth is not merely
a reflection of the
current phase of the
economic cycle, but
heralds a trend
which is potentially
capable of being
sustained. . .
64
120
100
80
60
40
20
6.2 continued 6.3 6.4
Passenger gr owth (billion passenger kilometres)
Source:Transport statistics Great Britain 1998;Railtrack demand models
century and,in particular, since the 1950s.Its share has been
under 6% since the ear ly 1990s.However, since 1910,the
absolute level of passenger rail volume , while fluctuating with
economic cycles,has remained remarkably constant as the
graph above indicates.This has happened through periods of
immense social change, two world wars,and the
transformation of personal transport through the motorcar.
Such stability against such a background is strongly
s u g g e s t i ve of other factors . In our opinion, it results from an
ove rall capacity constraint on the rail netwo rk , for although it is
t rue that netwo rk size has been reduced, the portions that
h ave been closed actually carried ve ry little tra f fi c.The Beeching
cuts of the 1960s are scarcely noticeable on the gra p h .
In the two years since privatisation was completed,
passenger kilometres have risen by 15%.However, the
resulting traffic volumes have not exceeded the parameters
of the recent past.
We believe that this growth is not merely a reflection
of the current phase of the economic cycle, but heralds a
trend which is potentially capable of being sustained.But
unless the century-long capacity constraint is tackled,such
growth cannot continue.
We set out in this section plans to create this extra
capacity. Many of the schemes are fully commercially viable,
and we are committed to them.Others require a
partnership approach and a proportion of public funding,
and we are also prepared to commit to these.
Annual compound growth rate 4.3%
Annual compound growth rate 0.7%
0
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Together, these plans provide capacity to enable
passenger traffic growth of around 30% over the next ten
years,and involve total expenditure of around £27bn
(compared to £17bn in last year’s NMS).Nevertheless,even
112
96
80
64
48
32
16
Fr eight gr owth (billion gross tonne-kilometres)
S o u r c e :Tra n s p o rt statistics Great Britain 1998;R a i l t rack analysis and freight opera t o rs ’fo r e c a s t s
0
1953 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007
this level of growth,although unprecedented this century, is
at the lower end of the range that some of our train
company customers aspire to achieve.
6.3 Freight markets and growth
Our freight growth assumptions are driven principally by
working with our existing customers and understanding how
their own businesses need to develop if they are to
successfully capture market share.We have also developed a
freight demand model,and continue to discuss new business
opportunities with prospective customers.The results of this
analysis have led us to develop the freight strategy set out in
Section 7.The graph above indicates the range of possible
growth scenarios.
6.4 Capacity bottlenecks
Operator forecast – annual compound growth rate 9.1%
Low – annual compound
growth rate 1.4%
The 1998 NMS identified locations on the network with
current and predicted congestion.These locations were
identified through a systematic evaluation of capacity across
the whole network,which established current and predicted
train-path use and capacity indicators for all key terminals,
junctions and plain line sections.Utilisation percentages were
then derived by dividing actual or forecast train paths by the
maximum number allowed.The locations identified in the
1998 NMS were all those with current or predicted use,
measured at 90% or above, together with a small number of
other locations at which use is slightly below this level but
which have high levels of reactionary delays.
Railtrack has evaluated the technical options for
alleviating the current and potential congestion problems
identified at these locations.These technical options have