R A I LT R AC K - The Railways Archive

H e a t h r ow Express commenced services to and from
London Paddington in 1998 and we are curr e n t ly wo rking with
a number of parties to develop infra s t ructure for access from
St Pa n c ra s ,and to provide a new southern link.
In 1998, a regular hourly service was introduced from Stansted
A i rp o rt to Cambridge and the Midlands, while additional peak
s e rvices and services calling at intermediate stations we r e
introduced from London's Live rpool Street Station.
At Luton, we are currently building a new station that
will fulfil a dual role as both a parkway station and a facility
for easy access to the airport.Much of the infrastructure
works are now complete.We expect services to commence
during the second half of 1999.
Manchester Airport. The rail link to Manchester Airpor t
has developed business successfully since its opening in 1993.
Manchester Airport's second runway is now under
construction. We are addressing options for how future
growth can best be met as part of our overall strategy to
improve capacity in and around Manchester, which we set
out later in this section.
Glasgow Airport. We are working with Strathclyde
Passenger Transport Executive (PTE) to assess the options
for providing a rail link from the airport to Paisley and
central Glasgow.
Birmingham Airport. We are working with a number of
parties including Birmingham International Airport,
Birmingham City Council,the National Exhibition Centre and
West Midlands Passenger Transport Authority (Centro) on
plans to radically improve the facilities focused around
Birmingham International Station.
Irish sea ports. The development of faster and higher
capacity ferries has helped to stimulate demand for rail/sea
journeys between Ireland and Great Britain.At Holyhead, we
are completing the station regeneration works to
complement the new terminal facilities provided by the port.
Channel Tunnel Rail Link
We have begun construction of the new high-speed link
between London and the Channel Tunnel. More information
is given in Route Strategies 6 and 18.
6.2 Passenger market growth
6.2
The starting point for developing and enhancing the network
is the ability to forecast demand and to understand how
train operators would react to this demand. Possible
reactions to demand growth include increasing the number
of seats filled on existing trains,lengthening existing trains or
running more trains.
We have four principal sources of information on which to
base our forecasts of market growth.
• First, we place considerable weight on what we learn
from passenger and freight operating companies.The
recent customer-reasonable requirements process has
helped with this.Our customers are carrying the risks of
the short-term end-market demand in their own
business plans,with the Franchising Director taking the
long-term demand risk.Revenue sharing arrangements
such as those we have with Virgin Rail Group and
Chiltern Railways bring us closer to a shared
understanding of some end markets.
Our market growth assumptions include the effects
of additional train services resulting from the
implementation of Moderation of Competition
(Stage 2) provisions in so far as our customers have
discussed their plans with us.
• Second,as an operator of 14 major stations, we carry
out independent market research among customers and
listen to the needs of our retailing partners at these
locations.The output of this research feeds into the
development plans described in the relevant route
sections of this document.
• Third, we have developed our own passenger-demand
forecasting tools to assist with modelling future demand,
and to anticipate likely changes required in network
capacity and capability. An equilibrium econometric
model of the Great Britain passenger transport market
developed for us by the Centre for Economic and
Business Research is the centrepiece of this.
• Fourth, we have begun to assess the implications of the
Government's Integrated Transport Policy for changes in
demand for capacity which might be brought about
either directly by the public sector through
reprioritisation of investment expenditure, or through
the market responding to changes in the structure of
charges for the use of different modes of transport.
Rail has been losing mar ket share for much of the 20th
The starting point
for developing and
enhancing the
network is the ability
to forecast demand
and to understand
how train operators
would react to this
demand
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