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eported growth rates of 1.4 g/week in "greenwater" recirculating systems similar to <strong>the</strong><br />

HBOI systems. Subsequent to this study <strong>the</strong> shade cloths covering <strong>the</strong> HBOI<br />

greenhouses were removed, and growth rates have improved.<br />

A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine <strong>the</strong> effect of improved survival and/or<br />

growth rates on <strong>the</strong> IRR of <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>tical 12-greenhouse enterprise. The results are<br />

summarized in Table 4. This analysis showed that <strong>the</strong> profitability of <strong>the</strong> enterprise was<br />

very sensitive to growth rates. If <strong>the</strong> shrimp were grown to an average weight of 18<br />

grams in 150 days (an average growth rate of 0.84 grams/week), <strong>the</strong> IRR improved to<br />

29% (holding survival at 60%). If <strong>the</strong> shrimp were grown to 18 grams in 150 days at a<br />

survival rate of 70%, <strong>the</strong> IRR improved dramatically to 46%. Improving survival to<br />

70% without any improvement in growth rates improved <strong>the</strong> IRR to 25%, or slightly less<br />

than <strong>the</strong> minimum acceptable return.<br />

Table 4: Sensitivity of NPV and IRR to Survival and Growth Rates<br />

Item<br />

60%<br />

Survival<br />

70%<br />

180 days to 18 grams<br />

Net Present Value @ $5.24/lb (Heads-on) ($152,310) ($7,197)<br />

Internal Rate of Return @ $5.24/lb (Heads-on)<br />

10% 25%<br />

Price Required for NPV to Equal 0 $6.04 $5.28<br />

150 days to 18 grams<br />

Net Present Value @ $5.24/lb (Heads-on) $27,864 $206,881<br />

Internal Rate of Return @ $5.24/lb (Heads-on)<br />

29% $46%<br />

Price Required for NPV to Equal 0 $5.13 $4.49<br />

Conclusion<br />

The commercial viability of shrimp production in freshwater recirculating systems is<br />

critically dependent on <strong>the</strong> ability to grow shrimp to at least 18 grams in 150 days, with<br />

consistent survival rates of better than 60%. Only efficient production systems are going<br />

to be successful, to minimize <strong>the</strong> capital cost per pound of production. The three-phase<br />

production system developed at HBOI allows system productivity to be increased without<br />

significantly increasing <strong>the</strong> capital costs of <strong>the</strong> system. Never<strong>the</strong>less, it is unlikely that<br />

shrimp grown in recirculating systems can be grown as cheaply as pond-reared shrimp, so<br />

<strong>the</strong>y will need to be sold at prices significantly higher prices. The volume of shrimp that<br />

can be sold at <strong>the</strong>se premium prices is presently unknown.<br />

Acknowledgements<br />

This research was funded by <strong>the</strong> Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer<br />

Services Bureau of <strong>Sea</strong>food and Aquaculture (FDACS Contract No. 4520). The author<br />

would like to thank Jim Collins, Kevin McAllister, Robert McDaniels, and Sami Al-<br />

Hussein for <strong>the</strong>ir assistance with <strong>the</strong> production trials that provided <strong>the</strong> data for this<br />

project.<br />

5

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