Prospectus - Notowania

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>> Interim Reports on Operations
Group Results
Individual consumption in the Eurozone rose slightly: from a decline of 0.5% q/q in Q2, consumption rose by 0.2% in Q3 due mainly
to the stimulus provided to the automobile industry. However, the US was still reporting a negative figure reflecting the increase in the
household savings rate, equal to 4% of disposable income, which occurred in response to the crisis. Nevertheless, the 2.7% increase
in retail sales in August is the largest increase since January 2006. The sharp growth in automobile sales (+10.6%) was widely
anticipated, while positive developments in other categories were surprising.
In September the confidence index of the European Commission gradually rose from 80.8 in the previous month to 82.8; this was the
highest level reached since September 2008. However, the consumer confidence component improved from -22 to -19. In the US,
after recovering much of the ground lost in previous months, in September the Conference Board's consumer confidence index
dropped back to 53.1, probably due to the lack of a robust resumption in individual consumption, which prevents a rapid, steady
recovery.
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
Business Survey in the manufacturing sector
PMI - eurozone
ISM - USA
Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
In terms of price movements, inflation in both the Eurozone and US remained in negative territory for the entire third quarter. In the
Eurozone, the HICP[1] index was down by 0.4% on an annual basis in the quarter, while the core rate slowed by 0.3 percentage
points to 1.3%. However, the latest available figure for the US showed a decrease in the CPI of 1.3% in September (the core CPI
remained unchanged at 1.5% on an annual basis compared to August).
In September the European Central Bank (ECB) published a forecast of 0.2% growth in GDP in 2010, which is a less optimistic
outlook than the consensus of economists. Leaving rates unchanged, BCE emphasized that the extraordinary measures taken by
the ECB must remain in force because the real economy and financial markets are still fragile. Furthermore, the Central Bank did not
apply a spread over the rate for the auction on September 29, where €75.2 billion was allocated to 589 banks.
As regards monetary policy in the US, the Federal Reserve provided its reassurance that rates would remain at current levels for an
extended period, and certainly through the beginning of 2010. Although the Fed believes that economic growth is in the process of
recovering, the recovery is still considered moderate, and long-term inflationary expectations are stable.
Since in Q3 the economic environment was strengthened by positive data which generally exceeded expectations, yield curves
remained steep throughout the period. The increase in risk appetite, especially for securities with longer maturities in the primary
market, should be seen as another sign of improvement in the confidence level of financial investors. The EUR-USD exchange rate
continued to rise to a level above 1.48; this was mostly due to repeated signs of favorable changes in the global economy. Once
again, the increase in risk appetite was a determining factor in influencing developments in the bond and currency markets.