Prospectus - Notowania

Group Results for Q3 2009
Macroeconomic and Banking Scenario
International situation
USA/Eurozone
The most recent data suggest that the world economy is starting to grow again. Asian countries were the first to show significant
signs of improvement, but there are also positive developments in the Eurozone and United States. However, certain doubts
continue to affect the sustainability of the recovery, and thus the positive signs must be interpreted in a comprehensive, balanced
manner.
After hitting bottom in Q1 2009 (-2.5% on a quarterly basis), in Q2 the rate of GDP growth in the Eurozone fell, less than expected, to
0.2% on a quarterly basis, due mainly to French and German figures that reflected economic growth.
Investments continued to post a negative growth rate but it was lower in absolute terms, dropping from -5.3% on a quarterly basis to -
1.3%, and they were one of the main causes of the lower decline in domestic demand (-0.1% on a quarterly basis compared to -1.3%
for the previous quarter).
The improvement in exports (from -8.8% to -1.1%) was greater than the improvement in imports (from -8.3% to -2.8%) resulting in a
sharp increase in the contribution of the positive balance of trade to GDP growth. On the other hand, the continued drawdown of
inventories made a negative contribution of 0.7 percentage points to GDP performance, nearly eliminating the positive impact of net
exports, which was equal to 0.6 percentage points.
In the United States GDP dropped by 0.6% on an annualized quarterly basis in Q2; this was slightly better than the expected
consensus of economists. The increase in public spending and the balance of trade partially mitigated the negative impact from the
decrease in individual consumption, investments and inventory buildups.
In the Eurozone, the main business confidence indicators continued to rise. The manufacturing PMI stood at 49.0 in September
(compared to 48.2 in August) due mainly to improvements in production and new orders, while the service index rose above the
threshold of 50 to 50.6, a level corresponding to economic expansion. In the US, the ISM manufacturing index declined slightly in
September from 52.9 to 52.6 (the first decrease after seven consecutive months of growth), but is still at a respectable level.
A more detailed analysis of indices shows that the ratio of new orders to inventories has continued to grow in the Eurozone and US
(and also in China) pointing to a future recovery in business confidence. In addition, the improvement in the ratio suggests that the
drawdown of inventories is stabilizing.
The unemployment rate is currently at very high levels in both the Eurozone and the US (9.5% and 9.8% respectively), although the
downward trend in the labor market is finally slowing down. Since labor market movements lag behind changes in the economic
cycle, it is reasonable to expect further increases in unemployment in both areas despite signs of recovery in the economic cycle.
CONSOLIDATED INTERIM REPORT
AS AT SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
24