Prospectus - Notowania

prospectus, were subject to limited audit by the External Auditors, which issued their report on
December 18, 2008.
Factors influencing the Group’s results
Macroeconomic scenario
The first few months of 2009 were characterised by the continued sharp contraction in demand,
which had marked the last few months of 2008, when all major economies were hit by a
collapse in international demand.
At the same time, the most recent data suggests that the world economy is showing signs which
could be a prelude to a phase of economic recovery. Asian countries were the first to show
relative signs of improvement, but also the Eurozone (where the Group is primarily active) and
the United States showed relative signs of growth. However, the uncertainties that continue to
affect the recovery and its sustainability suggest caution in interpreting the current economic
trend.
After a decrease of 2.5% quarter over quarter in Q1 2009, in Q2 the drop in GDP in the
Eurozone stopped at -0.2% quarter over quarter, due mainly to French and German data that
recorded economic growth.
In September 2009, the European Central Bank published a forecast of 0.2% growth in GDP in
2010. Leaving rates unchanged, the European Central Bank emphasised that the extraordinary
measures must remain in force because the real economy and the markets are still fragile.
Positive signs from Western countries, and especially the revival of German orders (in
particular, of investment assets), seem to be reflected also in some countries of Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE). Industrial productions and exports of some CEE countries showed signs
of relative improvement during summer 2009. Furthermore, the decrease in imports tends to
significantly reduce pressure on the balance of trade, one of the most vulnerable elements in
these countries.
Banking Scenario
The first signs which could be a prelude to economic recovery in recent months have not
resulted in increases in bank lending, which has continued to slow down. In fact, in recent
months, the annualised growth of loans to the private sector in the Eurozone further slowed its
pace, dropping to +0.1% in August 2009 (the growth rate of loans to the private sector was
+5.8% in December 2008). The sharp decline in loans to non-financial corporations was the
main contributor to driving down growth in bank lending, while loans to households showed
signs of stabilisation.
Bank deposit growth in recent months has mainly been the result of steady growth in current
account deposits driven by a demand effect (which is linked to the prevalence of a high level of
risk aversion by households), and by a supply effect by banks (which are offering products
which meet customers’ current propensity).
More specifically, current account deposits rose year over year in Germany, Austria and Italy,
the main countries where the Group operates. On the other hand, the total deposit growth rate
varied in the three main countries of operation, showing growth in Italy, and a gradual
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