TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

Global Context
The ten most significant global environmental trend drivers and issues have been identified as
follows.
1. Anxiety about the degradation of the natural environment is fast becoming foremost
in everybody’s lives. Indeed, there is now a recognition that the most dangerous
consequence of our activities may be that we upset the very way in which the
planet regulates itself. The stewardship of the earth’s natural capital will be a
rising priority towards 2030 as we witness falling water tables, shrinking crop and
pastureland, declining soil quality, diminishing fish stocks, disappearing forests,
worsening air quality and growing climate instability.
2. Similar, and related, concern exists regarding the quality and performance of the
built environment through the movement towards ‘smart urban development’, with
the emphasis on mixed use, higher density, public transport based, pedestrian
friendly and quality landscape policies, which is being progressed in the developed
world. The pressure of urbanisation and city growth in developing countries,
however, will rise inexorably over the next twenty five years.
3. The reality of climate change is now recognised, due to both natural causes and
mankind’s industrialisation ethos. It threatens health, life, property and security,
and demands constant and progressive attention by governments, businesses and
consumers throughout the scenario period and beyond. Ecological disasters, on a
scale not seen before, remain likely as climate change becomes the global public
policy issue.
4. A concomitant concern besets the issue of energy futures where huge uncertainties
and great contentention surround the competing and sometimes complementary
prospects for oil, coal, gas, nuclear, solar, wind, tidal and biomass sources. The
future condition of the natural environment, and the immediate policy framework
for the built environment, will largely be shaped by how energy issues are tackled.
5. It is suggested that an impending crisis over water resources during the scenario
period threatens to dwarf the energy crisis in significance and severity. Water use is
already showing signs of being a major feature of foreign policy decisions across the
globe and the prospect of ‘water wars’ looms large.
6. In theory, overall food production will be adequate to feed the world’s growing
population, but, in practice, poor infrastructure and distribution, political instability
and chronic poverty will lead to malnourishment in certain distressed regions.
Paradoxically perhaps, water again is the key, for its scarcity and salination
threatens tables and topsoil, whilst the ‘blue revolution’ through aquaculture and
hydroponics offer prospects of great productivity.
7. Though the problems of effective waste management will continue towards 2030,
one of the key insights of modern environmentalism is that waste material is a sign
of inefficiency. Such inefficiency can either be reduced by introducing more thrifty
processes, or by using that waste as a component in another process. As we move
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