TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

18. Over the next decade or so, transnational criminal organisations will become
increasingly adept at exploiting the global diffusion of sophisticated information,
financial and transportation networks. Irish police and security services will have to
develop strategies and tactics to foil this expansion in the scale and scope of
criminal activities and alliances.
19. Governments throughout Europe are increasing their investment on rolling-out
information and communications services to advance the application of e-
government, but, while Ireland is relatively sophisticated in the types of services
developed, it still faces a major challenge to make on-line services accessible to the
general public.
20. Self-serving though it may appear, the Twice The Size study revealed great
Wild Cards
enthusiasm for adopting a ‘Prospective Through Scenarios’ approach towards all
levels and sectors of Irish governance. Foresight exercises are becoming more
popular in the public realm, but there is little experience or expertise in conducting
them, so that they tend to become reduced to a fairly conventional and constricted
form of longer-term planning, devoid of imagination, integration or ideas. The
overriding aim of the scenario approach being to get participants to think, talk, plan
and act, creatively and differently, together.
Some potential ‘wild cards’ are:
Trade wars and embargos cripple the global society.
Africa implodes.
Collapse of the Middle East.
Breakdown of relations between Europe and the United States.
Formation of an alliance between China, India and Russia.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Sustainability is likely to be the next defining era in the same way that technology defines the
present. It is becoming pervasive through all driving forces and a source of speculation in most
issue and trend analyses. Nevertheless, despite a growing awareness of the sustainable
development imperative, there is still a tendency to underestimate the nature of environmental
problems, under-appreciate their complexity and postpone timely action. Few deny the ideal,
the difficult bit comes in trying to reconcile the ‘sustainable’ bit with the ‘development’ bit.
There is, however, a growing acceptance that a balance between concern for the environment
and concern for the economy must be struck.
85