TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

Wild Cards
Some potential ‘wild cards’ are:
Collapse of the sperm count.
Europe and Japan fail to cope with the challenges of an ageing population.
Massive migration from the developing world to the developed world.
Vaccine resistant influenza pandemic.
Collapse of the nuclear family
ECONOMIC CHANGE
The networked global economy will be driven by rapid and largely unrestricted flows of
information, ideas, cultural values, capital, goods and services, and people. Hopefully, this
globalised economy will be a major force towards increased political stability in the world of
2030, though its reach and benefits will not be universal. Compared to the industrial revolution,
the process of globalisation is considerably more compressed, and its evolution will likely be
marked by chronic financial fluctuations and a widening economic divide.
The Global Context
The ten most significant global economic trend drivers and issues have been identified as
follows.
1. The whole vexed question of energy is becoming a metaphor for the future
economic health and performance of the world. Global demand for energy could
well have outpaced supply by 2030 unless new sources are found to support global
growth.
2. While capitalism is the only economic system that has been seen to work anywhere,
its foundations are shaking with the speed and force of change, so that the eternal
verities of capitalism – growth, full employment, financial stability, rising real wages
– are threatened. A movement towards ‘natural capitalism’ could provide a
restorative.
3. Although the outlook for the global economy seems sanguine, the attainment of
broad and sustained high levels of productivity will be contingent on avoiding
several potential brakes to growth such as: Europe and Japan failing to manage
their demographic challenges; the US economy suffering a major and prolonged
downturn; China and/or India failing to maintain high growth; and global energy
supplies experiencing a serious disruption.
4. In a knowledge based economy the prerequisite for survival will be global
competitiveness, not just in the traditional sense of market leadership, but
increasingly in the discovery and exploration of new uncontested markets.
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