TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

immigration accounts for more than half of population growth. Future migration
rates will, of course, depend upon such factors as job opportunities, house prices,
cost of living, levels of inflation, quality of life and attitudes towards multiculturalism.
8. Given the potential danger of social problems associated with immigration, it is vital
that a policy framework is constructed which minimises the possibilities for racial
disharmony.
9. The outlook for the population in the active age groups – fifteen to sixty four years –
is of central importance to the economic prospects for the scenario period. In
particular, the baby boom generation of the 1970’s and early 1980’s outweighs any
other segment of the population, and has a critical impact on both the demand and
supply sides of the economy. As the bulge moves through the age groups, and
gradually ages, there will be consequent impacts on developments in the future as
its needs, preferences and priorities change.
10. Unsurprisingly, there has been a boom in housing to meet the burgeoning population
of recent years, as well as other major changes in social and family life. This
housing and population growth has manifested itself in massively increased
suburbanisation, a complex phenomenon which has resulted in the decline of town
and city centre populations and a sprawling growth of population in county areas.
11. Another dimension of Ireland’s new urbanisation is the domination of Greater
Dublin, with the province of Leinster now accounting for 54% of the country’s
population. The policy of decentralisation through the relocation of public service
offices to address the ‘Dublinisation’ of Ireland has had mixed reviews and very
limited success. The creation of a new major urban centre – with a similar pulling
power to Dublin – along the lines of the Government’s Atlantic Gateway project, is
heralded in some quarters as the most attractive solution. Great care should be
taken, however, not to kill the capital goose that lays the golden eggs for regional
distribution.
12. A major consequence of population growth occurring in the ‘wrong places’ is the
pressure on infrastructure placed upon the outer suburbs – especially water,
sewerage and social facilities - and the related decline in demand for schools and
other facilities in the inner urban areas. There is also increased pressure on urban
landscapes, whereby insecure public ownership, reduction in parklands, and
inadequate sporting facilities all contribute to a poorer quality of urban life.
Densification of development with concentration of population is a key challenge for
future demographic settlement patterns.
13. Present and projected population changes due to immigration are determined by
both ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors. The push factors include: per capita difference in
income; differential employment opportunities; political issues generating refugees
and asylum seekers; past Irish ‘missionary’ activities; and EU enlargement.
Correspondingly, the pull factors includes: on-going sectoral labour force shortages;
expanding of the base of non-indigenous communities; lack of a clear official Irish
immigration policy; low population density; English as the main working language;
and sustained high economic growth.
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