TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

Prospects for Ireland
Changes in the size, age, distribution and profile of the population play a vital role in
determining the social character and economic performance of the state. For Ireland, such
change has been the crucial factor explaining the sustained pace of growth and comparative
resilience of the economy over the past fifteen years. The very title of this project, ‘Twice The
Size’, demonstrates the strategic significance of Irelands demographic dividend. Demography is
indeed destiny, and the impact of demographics on national development scenarios is a function
of both the direct physical pressures of quantitative change and the flux in the underlying
qualitative structure of the population. Some twenty of the most significant demographic issues
and trends identified for Ireland are listed below.
1. The population of the Republic of Ireland now stands at over 4.2 million – its highest
for over a century. The country also has the fastest growing population in Europe,
rising at a rate of 2.5% per annum, and is estimated to increase to a total of around
5.5million people by 2020 and as high as 6 million or even 6.5 million by 2030.
2. In terms of fertility, the rate has fallen sharply from a little over four in 1965 to a
current rate just below two, but Ireland still has one of the highest rates of birth in
Europe at around 15.5 per thousand.
3. The life expectancy of males has risen to just over seventy five years and that of
females to a little over eighty years. These are expected to rise further by 2030 to
about eighty three years and eighty seven years respectively. Mortality rates have
fallen to seven per thousand currently, and are estimated to fall further to almost
six per thousand in 2015, from whence they will rise to almost eight per thousand by
2030.
4. The population is getting older with an average age of over thirty five years,
expected to rise to over forty years by 2030. Currently, the over sixty five’s
account for slightly more than 11% of the population, which will probably rise to
around 20% by 2030, giving an absolute rise from 460,000 now to about 1 million
then.
5. Following a persistent decline since the 1950’s marriage rates have stabilised at
around five per thousand, while the average age of mothers continues to increase to
a point now just over thirty years. Almost a third of all births are to unmarried
mothers whose average age also continues to increase.
6. The dependency ratio has declined over recent years due largely to the fall in birth
rate, but seems set to rise in the future, unless immigration and retirement policies
balance things out.
7. With regard to migration, the mid-1990’s marked an important sea change in
Ireland’s demography, when, for the first time in its eighty year history as a
sovereign state, non-indigenous in-migration became a crucial factor contributing to
accelerated growth. It is estimated that such immigrants will account for well over
half the growth in total population between now and 2030, from a figure of about
30% now, going from 7% of the population now to well over 20% by then. Returning
emigrants currently account for about half as much again, so that total net
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