TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

– although there will continue to be an increased local urbanisation of the population on
all areas.
3. Changing Agriculture. The completion of the reform of the Common Agriculture Policy
by 2015 will create widening differences between an area of intensive agribusiness in
the south and the East compared to very large areas in the West and north where
agriculture will cease to be a dominant and full-time activity, and where environmental
designations are likely to become the dominant determinant for development.
4. Changing Values. The recent rapid economic and social development of the country
combined with the urbanisation of lifestyles and populations, as well as the continuing
high proportion of younger people will mean that values in Ireland will continue to
change rapidly and dramatically compared to other European countries.
5. Changing Politics. The changing demographics, values and urbanization are likely to
mean that an urban agenda will come to dominate politics and policies within ten years
or less.
The basic conclusion emerging from these drivers is that by the year 2030 over two-thirds of the
population of the island of Ireland will be concentrated within 25 km of the East coast. There is
no evidence that existing strategies will prevent this, nor indeed is there any evidence that this
would be desirable. An Eastern corridor from Belfast to Waterford, is likely to be Ireland’s best
opportunity to maintain a competitive position among the city-regions of an increasingly
competitive Europe.
More disturbingly, there is no evidence of any plans to provide for this future. On the contrary
the existing National Spatial Strategy is fundamentally conceived to achieve ‘balanced regional
development’. This strategy, dubbed at one workshop as the ABD Strategy [Anywhere But
Dublin] is likely to be counterproductive to all parts of Ireland because it will divert resources
away from the region that will probably sustain the economic growth necessary to transfer funds
to less advantaged areas. This strategy is viewed as a relict of a political system based upon
rural values that is rapidly losing relevance and demographic support.
These findings have significant implications for politics, policies and planning. At a fundamental
level lies the very real possibility that at the grand scale we are planning for a future that will
never happen. Are we squandering scarce resources to prop-up the unsustainable expectations
of dwindling peripheral populations? Are we ignoring, or worse, under-providing for the needs of
the overwhelming majority of the population? Are we damaging the future prospects for those
concentrations of economic activities that sustain the rest of the country through fund
transfers?
These findings may mean that we may need to revisit more than just our demographic
projections. Instead, we need to re-examine our assumptions about the values and needs of the
future society that we are attempting to provide for. Major changes are underway in Ireland at
the very fundamental levels of the demographics and values that shape future needs and
aspirations. These need to be clearly articulated and examined.
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