TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

population and a relatively young society leads to greater rates of spending, as demand for
goods and services increases. Assuming that these trends will continue, King and O’Brien
predicted that by 2020 the population of the Republic of Ireland will reach 5.3 million; that over
a million people living in Ireland will be immigrants; the number of cars will double to three
million; 700,000 new houses will be built, and the economy on average will grow by over 5 per
cent per year. Essentially, the predictions are that the transformation of Ireland during the past
15 years will continue for another 15 years (NCB, 2006).
However, to date, there has been little if any public strategic policy focus on what is likely to
be a robust and accelerating external pressure, to rectify Ireland’s current defective population
density. The question begs to be asked: what is Ireland’s current population potential and what
does it mean for the economy and other aspects of Irish life? Land size and external migration
pressures constitute only a part of the answer; other determinants include public governance,
urban planning and economic productivity (Coleman, 2007). Future strategic spatial and social
policy must be aligned so as to enable Irish cities and towns to accommodate rapid demographic
expansion and, at the same time, facilitate integration of immigrants in a way that will ensure
cohesive but diverse society.
Potential of the regions provides another angle for consideration. A report produced by the
Rural Ireland 2025 Foresight Perspectives Working Group (2006), predicts that Ireland’s economy
will continue to grow. However, the patterns of growth will be characterised by an uneven
geographical distribution and across the sectors. It is foreseen that rural areas will decline,
especially in the Northwest and North Midlands; at the same time many foreign owned
manufacturing companies will move to lower cost economies and the new economic sectors will
not benefit rural areas outside the commuting zones. It is very likely, that with a lack of
adequate policy provisions, people in rural areas will loose out. This supports the argument
presented in the previous section that the gap between urban and rural Ireland will deepen in
the future.
Summarising the current speculations on the potential for Ireland’s future - it is likely that Irish
population and economy will continue to grow; however, at the same time the spatial
disparities will continue to widen. As Marc Coleman stated “Ireland’s potential is massive”, but
without a comprehensive understanding of what that potential is and without a clear vision how
to develop it, it may be wasted.
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