TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

F O R E W O R D, by Professor John S. Ratcliffe and D. Conor Skehan
Whilst this study is primarily about the necessary hopes and visions of the various gateway towns
and cities identified in the National Spatial Strategy, it was inevitable that, in a world where
increasingly everything affects everything else, their future wellbeing would be shaped by the
driving forces of change sweeping around the world and an economy inexorably dominated by
Dublin, and heavily influenced by emerging synergies with Belfast and the rest of Northern
Ireland. Unashamedly, it adopts a ‘futures studies’ approach, believing that time and effort
spent on strategic thinking prior to strategic planning ultimately pays enormous dividends in
terms of discovering, exploring and evaluating possible, probable and preferable futures.
Furthermore, in an era of accelerating change, growing complexity and heightened uncertainty,
it enables all the key players and stakeholders in policy formulation and decision-making
processes to think, talk, plan and act, creatively and differently, together. It imagines ahead
and plans backward.
Spatial planning and futures studies are both chiefly concerned with the needs and expectations
of tomorrow. Each activity deals with ambiguous, multifaceted and contentious issues, for
which the outcomes are complex and uncertain. Their common purpose is to provide a ‘better
future’, while avoiding undesirable risks. Spatial planning and futures studies both share ethical
dilemmas of representation and manipulation from the way they operate, and the
methodological difficulties of balancing a wide range of information, techniques, participants
and attitudes. Despite these similarities, the way of thinking about and addressing the future
by the spatial planning profession differs greatly from the one practiced by futurists. This is
discussed elsewhere, (Ratcliffe & Krawczyk, 2007), but in the context of this study, a ‘futures’
approach constitutes a much more effective platform for collaborative planning, helping to
develop agreed solutions and ensuring that the ownership of those solutions is embedded in the
community so that they have a greater chance of successful implementation.
What has emerged from the Twice the Size study is that the central tenet of present planning in
the Republic of Ireland – the attainment of balanced regional development – is mistaken.
Further, that unless this error is recognised and redressed, then Ireland’s future economic,
environmental and social prospects are likely to be seriously impaired. In examining the main
aim of the National Spatial Strategy, to increase the size of the Gateway settlements to twice
the current population, the principal drivers of change emerging as having the greatest
significance to such an outcome were as follows.
1. Demographics. The very strong concentration of population towards the East is likely to
continue as the relative size of the rest of the State continues to fall. This Eastern
region will most notably remain the primary engine of the Irish economy because of
intrinsic competitive advantages conferred by scale and a critical mass of urban
population.
2. Spatial Continuity. The low density spatial pattern of development, following coasts,
river valleys, favourable topography and transportation corridors are unlikely to change
6