TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

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3.2.2 Dublin and the Gateways – Issues of Scale Analysis of the population distribution and densities shows a strong spatial imbalance in the allocation of people across the country. At present, 28% of the Ireland’s population lives in Dublin City, which covers only 1.3% of the surface area of Ireland. If the population of the Greater Dublin Area is considered, nearly 40% of the total population lives in the GDA of which its surface area consists of 10% of that of Ireland. Again, if the Greater Dublin Area and the seven neighbouring counties that are strongly linked to Dublin are considered, more than 50% of Ireland’s population lives in the 11 counties that constitute only a little more than a quarter of Ireland’s land (Tab. 4a). The numbers only confirm the strong domination of Dublin over the rest of the Republic. If we extrapolate the recent trends in population growth for different areas of the Dublin region and the rest of the country, it is clear that, unless there is a strong disruption to these trends, the growth of population in Dublin region will continue to be stronger than in other parts of Ireland, and therefore, the domination of Dublin in population concentration will continue. Tables 4b and 4c show the forecasts of population numbers in 2020 and 2030. Although, these predictions show growth of population in all parts of the country, the gap between the GDA’s share of population and the rest of the Republic will increase. This is well illustrated by Figure 6. Counties (…) Population 2006 Share of National pop. % Surface Area % Dublin (1) 1 187 176 28 1.3 Mid East (3) 475 360 11 8.6 GDA (4) 1 662 536 39 10.0 7 adjacent counties* (7) 574 641 14 16.5 GDA + 7 counties (11) 2 237 177 53 26.4 Rest of RoI (15) 2 002 671 47 73.6 State (26) 4 239 848 100.00 100.00 Table 4a: Spatial distribution of Ireland’s population in 2006. Source: Census 2006. Note: * Seven adjacent counties include: Wexford, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan and Louth. 52
Counties (…) Population Share of National pop. % Population growth 53 (over 2006) Dublin (1) 1 565 000 29 +377 824 Mid East (3) 710 000 13 +234 640 GDA (4) 2 275 000 42 +612 464 7 adjacent counties* (7) 790 000 15 +215 359 GDA + 7 counties (11) 3 065 000 57 +827 823 Rest of RoI (15) 2 335 000 43 +332 329 State (26) 5 400 000 100.00 +1 160 152 Table 4b: Spatial distribution of Ireland’s population by 2020 (end of NSS period), assuming present trends will continue. By Brian Hughes. Note 1: * Seven adjacent counties include: Wexford, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan and Louth. Note 2: Growth projections are based generally on 1966-2006 trends, whilst also reflecting Dublin’s urban agglomerative potential and future world demographic influence. Counties (…) Population Share of National pop. % Population growth (over 2006) Dublin (1) 1 875 000 30 +687 824 Mid East (3) 925 000 15 +449 640 GDA (4) 2 800 000 45 +1 137 464 7 adjacent counties* (7) 960 000 15 +385 359 GDA + 7 counties (11) 3 760 000 60 +1 522 823 Rest of RoI (15) 2 540 000 40 +537 329 State (26) 6 300 000 100.00 +2 060 152 Table 4c: Spatial distribution of Ireland’s population by 2030. By Brian Hughes. Note 1: * Seven adjacent counties include: Wexford, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan and Louth. Note 2: Growth projections are based generally on 1966-2006 trends, whilst also reflecting Dublin’s urban agglomerative potential and future world demographic influence. There are number of possible events that may change the existing trends. Given that existing urbanisation processes mean that people will continue to move from rural to urban areas, a more balanced population distribution can be achieved only if future governments foster the and promote the growth of the four smaller cities. Otherwise, it is right to assume that Dublin’s sphere of influence will deepen. It is also acceptable to believe that, in the case of lack of the implementation of such policies and an economic slowdown or decline, Dublin’s dominant position will be strengthened even sooner.
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
Page 68 and 69: today. The future was a given, and
Page 70 and 71: 5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
Page 72 and 73: Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
Page 74 and 75: 14. This study by The Futures Acade
Page 76 and 77: 5. As a direct corollary, creativit
Page 78 and 79: wages and prices are kept in balanc
Page 80 and 81: 20. Small business in Ireland is bi
Page 82 and 83: Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
Page 84 and 85: 12. While the NDP is committed to c
Page 86 and 87: Global Context The ten most signifi
Page 88 and 89: 3. By international standards the a
Page 90 and 91: 15. The intensification of agricult
Page 92 and 93: 7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
Page 94 and 95: sector up the value chain; promote
Page 96 and 97: 6. The field of synthetic biology w
Page 98 and 99: 9. With the onset of e-governance,
Page 100 and 101: 5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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