TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

may see the commencement of supply-push as distinct from current demand-pull in-migration
pressures.
‘Doubling’ at the gateway level
At national level, it would not be realistic to assume a doubling of population by 2030. However,
that is not impossible that individual urban settlements could attain such growth. For example,
over a period of 25 years, Galway city grew impressively by 74%, from 41,861 in 1981 to 72,729
in 2006. Yet, on the basis of this comparison, the rate of that city’s growth would have had to
be some 41.3% stronger than actually achieved, in order for its population to have doubled
within 24 years. In Table 2, the current population of eight gateways and its national ‘doubled’
population in 2030 are presented.
Accordingly, such a doubling of population over a similar time-frame would require a specific,
targeted Government growth strategy in favour of Ireland’s Gateway and Hub settlements. In
this, it has to be noted that, despite the thrust of the NSS in its selection of these particular
settlements, government policy to decentralise the civil service away from Dublin has been
directed towards a wider profile of dispersal to over 50 locations. Furthermore, it assumes that
this strategy will continue to represent future strategic policy.
Since Independence, no Irish government has ever truly implemented a growth-centred policy.
And given that political expediency dictates and influences the form of governance, the political
focus tends to be very much ‘local’ and ‘short-term’. In recent decades, rejection of the 1968
Buchanan and 1985 ERDO Plans both stand as evidence of such expediency. And yet, if balanced
regional development as espoused by the NSS is to be achieved – on a scale that will generate
the growth potential and scale size needed for urban agglomeration – a doubling of settlement
population is a prerequisite to such achievement. This is especially the case because of an
absence of critical mass and in particular, due to the State’s absence of small to medium- sized
cities in the 200,000 to 500,000 population range.
Table of Settlements (‘000) 2006 population 2030 target
Cork 190,000 380,000
Limerick/ Shannon 100,000 200,000
Galway 73,000 146,000
Waterford 49,000 98,000
Athlone-Tullamore-Mullingar 46,000 92,000
Dundalk 35,000 70,000
Sligo 19,000 38,000
Letterkenny (excluding Derry) 18,000 36,000
Gateway totals: 530,000 1,060,000
Table 2: Population of gateways in 2006 and in 2030 if doubled. Source: 2006 Census. Analysis
by Brian P. Hughes, Faculty of the Built Environment, DIT. Note: Populations rounded to
nearest thousand.
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