TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

3.2 People
The study’s point of departure was based on the theme of doubling the population of the Irish
gateway cities and towns over the next 25 years and the impacts it could have on these
territories. This section examines the current demographic trends, explores the feasibility and
implications of doubling the population of the gateways, and analyses the current spatial
population structure. Also, issues related to the change of values systems are investigated here.
3.2.1 Doubling of the population
‘Doubling’ at the national level
To double a given population in a 24-year timeframe (2006-2030) implies achieving a consistent
growth rate of almost 3% per annum compound. To put this in context: during the period of
most rapid growth the decade preceding April 2006 – Ireland’s population grew by just under
17%, which is 1.6% per annum compound. This comprised natural growth: that is births less
deaths and a slightly larger net in-migration contribution. Future birth and death predictions
anticipate that natural growth, at best, will contribute about 0.7% to 0.8% per annum to
Ireland’s population growth. Most experts agree that Ireland’s future birth rates will track those
of northern European countries. This is accompanied with the caveat that forecasting so far
ahead implies making a present-day judgement as to total fertility rates of birth mothers – some
of whom have not yet been born! Death rates have been declining and some further falls will
probably occur in the short-term. Thereafter, Ireland’s ageing population together with trends
in in-migration will determine a levelling out of the death rate.
For the State to achieve the target growth of 3% of population per annum, the other component
of demographic performance, net in-migration would need to be running at 2.2% to 2.3% per
annum, or 2.75-times the rate of natural growth. During 1996-2006, on average, net migration
to Ireland, has been 27.6% stronger than natural growth, although for some individual recent
years it has been higher. However, this has been exceptional and would not likely be sustained
in quieter periods of economic growth.
Given the nine billion plus predicted total for world population by 2050, it is inevitable that
first-world countries such as Ireland will be subjected to ever-increasing in-migration pressures.
In this way, the nature of in-migration is expected to change from ‘demand pull’ to ‘supply
push’. However, it is also certain that in-migration flows will be subject to strict governmental
control, evidenced by the passing of recent legislation and the newly-established institutional
arrangements for ‘skills’ control.
Nevertheless, since 1996 the rate of net in-migration has grown to unprecedented levels. It has
been driven principally by Ireland’s need to supply labour in response to record job creation
during the period 1996-2006. Economic commentators are unanimous in their view that we are
entering a more quiescent period of economic growth. This will be a time during which Ireland
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