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motivated large numbers of people in a rich, collective process, the prospective takes this a stage further by proposing a path towards real, implemented action. 10. Move to Strategic Planning Traditionally, strategic thinking through scenarios has been separated from strategic planning, and quite deliberately so. This has often been a strength, in that is has allowed creative exploration untrammelled by the need to take action. But is has also been a weakness, because it has isolated imaginative thinking and curtailed continuing ‘future proofing’. In one way, the prospective provides a bridge between strategic thinking and strategic planning across which ideas and actions can continue to pass. In another, it builds a kind of ‘scaffolding’ within which a strategic plan can be constructed and refurbished. In terms of ‘making-it-happen’, the prospective process through scenarios contributes to strategic planning and management by (van der Heijden, 2002): • creating wide awareness of the environmental imperative requiring change; • guiding the formation of operational plans; • enlisting the people in the organisation who have the power to act; and • establishing coherence in management action through development of a shared view. 2.2.2 Methods and Techniques The Prospective Through Scenarios Process, outlined above, formed the overall project framework, following which a set of specific tasks was established and methods for their completion chosen appropriately. The various tasks set to complete the project include the following. 1. A desk-top ‘horizon scanning’ study focusing on the changes, challenges and priority areas facing spatial planning and development in Ireland. 2. A ‘trend analysis’ study to identify the ‘key drivers of change’ influencing the future of spatial planning and development in Ireland. 3. Preparation and distribution of ‘futures questionnaires’ to the various stakeholders to collect primary research data on the future priorities of the gateways. 4. Conducting of ‘strategic conversations’ with the most important players in the sector to generate qualitative opinion-based data on the perceived areas of strategic significance across a range of professions concerned with the future development of the gateways. 5. Organisation and facilitation of a series of ‘futures workshops’ to create a set of alternative future scenarios, a preferred future vision and a range of policy options for each of the gateway towns and cities in Ireland. The structure of Futures Workshops was based on the Spatial Prospective process. Such workshops are the most efficient method for collecting an abundance of rich data in a short period of time. The process used during workshops, attended by a mixture of people 36
epresenting different sectors, organisations and views, creates conducive conditions for stimulating discussions, creative imagining and innovative brainstorming. In each workshop, the aim was to achieve a shared understanding of what the future may bring and stimulate collaboration amongst stakeholders in shaping the future. A single one-day workshop was conducted for each gateway. The attendance varied from 11 to 25 participants. The list of workshops is attached in Appendix 2. Futures Questionnaires were employed as an additional method for collecting information about the aspirations, wishes, values and fears of participants regarding the future of the city or town in question; identifying strengths and weaknesses of that territory; and determining driving forces of change that will influence its future. The questionnaires were distributed in advance of the workshops to stimulate pre-workshop reflection on the future of a given city or town. Around 70 questionnaires were distributed to people identified as having a direct or indirect influence over the city/town development, from each gateway. The questionnaires were sent to representatives of all sectors. Strategic Conversations, an in-depth interviewing technique, was used at two levels: local and national. At the local gateway level, the Strategic Conversations were carried out with up to five stakeholders per gateway. The interviewees were recognised as having both an impact on the development of the city/town and being renowned for their strategic and ‘outside-the-box’ thinking. These conversations provided valuable insights into the challenges, opportunities and possible future alternatives facing the particular gateway city/town. The Strategic Conversations at the national level were conducted at the start and the end of the study. Strategic Conversations at Local & National Level Scanning of published policy Scenarios & Preferred Vision for a Gateway A Visioning Workshop Figure 4: A combination of methods used during the study. 37 Evaluation of public commentary Futures Questionnaires
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
Page 68 and 69: today. The future was a given, and
Page 70 and 71: 5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
Page 72 and 73: Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
Page 74 and 75: 14. This study by The Futures Acade
Page 76 and 77: 5. As a direct corollary, creativit
Page 78 and 79: wages and prices are kept in balanc
Page 80 and 81: 20. Small business in Ireland is bi
Page 82 and 83: Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
Page 84 and 85: 12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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144
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146
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148
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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