TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

More documents

Recommendations

Info

In this case, key uncertainties were identified by the participants of the workshops and the respondents of the strategic interviews and futures questionnaires. Brainstorming sessions during the workshops aimed not only to identify the key uncertainties and the degree of their impact but also to discern possible impacts of these uncertainties. 5. Establish Scenario Logics This stage lies at the heart of the prospective process. Here is established a logical rationale and structure for the scenarios, and it is when intuition, insight and creativity play the greatest role. The logics provide the themes for a scenario’s plot or story. They connect the present to a specific scenario end-state or outcome, for any ‘future history’ must make sense ‘today’. Put another way, they are the organising principles around which the scenarios are structured. They focus on the critical or pivotal uncertainties for the organisation concerned and present alternative theories of the way the world might work. These alternative future states are logical in the sense that a persuasive and rational case can be made for each of the outcomes. These logics can be articulated and elaborated in a number of different ways. Most usually, by either laying-out in simple narrative form, or by using the 2 x 2 matrix approach, or by depicting the logics and their interactions or relationships diagrammatically showing causal connections. These are represented in Figure 2. In this project, the gateway scenarios were nested within three alternative global and national scenarios developed in the beginning of the process using the material from the national workshop, a number of strategic conversations at the national level as well as the work of The Futures Academy conducted over the recent years. Participants of the gateway workshops were asked to imagine the futures for their gateway within three different national sets of circumstances. 1 2 3 4 1 2 Figure 2: Scenario logics. Source: Outsights. 32 3 1 2 3 4
D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s P r e s c r i p t i o n Divergence Emergence Convergence Set the Strategic Question Identify the Driving Forces of Change Determine the Main Issues and Trends Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty Establish Scenario Logics Create Different Scenarios Test Policy Options Identify Turning Points Produce Prospective Move to Strategic Planning Figure 3. Prospective Through Scenarios Process (Ratcliffe & Sirr, 2004). 33 High to Low Importance Strategic Conversations Horizon Scanning Prospective Workshops Clustering Polarising Planning Ranking Delphi Survey Cross-Impact Analysis Morphological Analysis Creative Writing Wind Tunnel Testing Visioning Causal Layered Analysis Gaming and Simulation
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
Page 68 and 69: today. The future was a given, and
Page 70 and 71: 5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
Page 72 and 73: Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
Page 74 and 75: 14. This study by The Futures Acade
Page 76 and 77: 5. As a direct corollary, creativit
Page 78 and 79: wages and prices are kept in balanc
Page 80 and 81: 20. Small business in Ireland is bi
Page 82 and 83:
Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
Page 84 and 85:
12. While the NDP is committed to c
Page 86 and 87:
Global Context The ten most signifi
Page 88 and 89:
3. By international standards the a
Page 90 and 91:
15. The intensification of agricult
Page 92 and 93:
7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
Page 94 and 95:
sector up the value chain; promote
Page 96 and 97:
6. The field of synthetic biology w
Page 98 and 99:
9. With the onset of e-governance,
Page 100 and 101:
5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
Page 102 and 103:
world leader in software solutions
Page 104 and 105:
In the context of health, it is unw
Page 106 and 107:
High land prices and generally infl
Page 108 and 109:
Similarly, little thought is given
Page 110 and 111:
SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
Page 112 and 113:
and, as a result, substantial progr
Page 114 and 115:
than two thirds of all weddings are
Page 116 and 117:
increased the power of local govern
Page 118 and 119:
had to submit an annual recycling p
Page 120 and 121:
SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
Page 122 and 123:
Preoccupied with security issues, p
Page 124 and 125:
Places Ireland is one of few Europe
Page 126 and 127:
But all has not been good news. To
Page 128 and 129:
PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
Page 130 and 131:
130
Page 132 and 133:
ail and road connections between Du
Page 134 and 135:
Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
Page 136 and 137:
Another important point of attentio
Page 138 and 139:
9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
Page 140 and 141:
Built and Natural Environment High
Page 142 and 143:
A radical rethinking of the Nationa
Page 144 and 145:
144
Page 146 and 147:
146
Page 148 and 149:
148
Page 150 and 151:
A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
Page 152 and 153:
campaign put Cork on the global map
Page 154 and 155:
SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
Page 156 and 157:
palpable shift in Cork from the “
Page 158 and 159:
in the knowledge economy and as a
Page 160 and 161:
But by 2020 when climatic change ha
Page 162 and 163:
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
Page 164 and 165:
SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
Page 166 and 167:
centres and high quality rural hint
Page 168 and 169:
decades had facilitated the emergen
Page 170 and 171:
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
Page 172 and 173:
Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
Page 174 and 175:
Other features of the campus includ
Page 176 and 177:
SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
Page 178 and 179:
Re: the fairest county of them all
Page 180 and 181:
D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
Page 182 and 183:
Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
Page 184 and 185:
implementation of the Derry Donegal
Page 186 and 187:
of this success by restoring compet
Page 188 and 189:
process, which they believe will br
Page 190 and 191:
E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
Page 192 and 193:
new city treatment works. Over the
Page 194 and 195:
Following the elimination of the co
Page 196 and 197:
The completion of the Orbital route
Page 198 and 199:
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
Page 200 and 201:
of the regional government led by a
Page 202 and 203:
In fact, NSS II designated most of
Page 204 and 205:
SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
Page 206 and 207:
esearch centre to investigate a pos
Page 208 and 209:
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
Page 210 and 211:
SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
Page 212 and 213:
egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
Page 214 and 215:
The region’s economy has also bee
Page 216 and 217:
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
Page 218 and 219:
SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
Page 220 and 221:
SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
Page 222 and 223:
References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
Page 224 and 225:
Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
Page 226 and 227:
226
Page 228 and 229:
Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
Page 230 and 231:
Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
Page 232 and 233:
Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
show all

TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?