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2.2.1 Prospective Through Scenarios Process
Although there are many variations on a theme, the stages shown in Figure 3 are typical of a
Prospective Through Scenarios process. Below, a description of each step is given with
modifications of the process adopted specifically for this study included.
1. Set the Strategic Question
This might be a general examination of the position of an organisation within its external
environment, the more particular identification of a key gap in an organisation’s knowledge, or
the interrogation of a very specific business idea. Critical to this stage is the formulation of the
right question. A key to this, and to the whole prospective process, is the holding of ‘strategic
conversations’ with key actors in and around the organisation and its sector of society. In
enabling complex adaptive organisations to look ahead to the future, conversation, in one form
or another, becomes a key component of strategic planning. Strategic conversations are fast
emerging as a central feature of the scenario process, and scenario exercises, in turn, are
becoming a prime tool of strategic planning.
Originally, building on the premise that strong growth in gateway cities will continue, the
following question was asked: “what the future of the gateway towns and cities would be like if
their population doubled?” Hence, the title of the project. However, answering such a question
would depict only one possible future, and would defy the purpose of the exercise; therefore,
two strategic questions for the project were posed. At the national level:
And, at the regional level:
2. Identify the Driving Forces of Change
“What might Ireland be like in 2030?”
“What might the gateway of … be like in 2030?”
In practice, the driving forces of change are identified by: continuous monitoring through
‘horizon’ or ‘environmental’ scanning; in-depth interviews with acknowledged experts; targeted
questionnaire surveys; and brainstorming workshops at the start of the prospective process.
They are usually categorised by a technique like the ‘Six Sector Approach’ [Demographic,
Economic, Governance, Environmental, Societal, Technological (DEGEST)], invariably used by
The Futures Academy, or similar such as PESTLE or STEEP developed by others. Following
popular parlance that ‘everything affects everything else’ one of the most important tasks is to
investigate the interrelationship between various forces. Perhaps the two most challenging
chores, however, are to ensure that sufficient divergent thinking takes place on the one hand,
whilst common clichés are hunted down on the other. Ultimately, it is the driving forces of
change that shape and propel the story lines described in a particular plot for a scenario. It is
almost inconceivable to consider a scenario that does not incorporate major drivers from most,
if not all, of the six sectors depicted above.
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