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questions usually facing those working in the futures field in the examination of an issue or policy include the following. What are the major continuities? What are the major trends? What are the most important change processes? What are the most serious problems? What are the new factors ‘in the pipeline’? What are the main sources of inspiration and hope? It provides a ‘map of the future’ and supplies policy makers and others with views, images and alternatives about futures in order to inform and future-proof decisions in the present. There are a number of reasons why it is important to adopt futures methods into urban planning. These have been listed in A Practical Handbook on Futures Workshops: Visioning the Future of Cities produced by The Futures Academy and include the following (Gannon & Ratcliffe, 2006). Extending thinking beyond the conventional and fostering more forward thinking as a result. Forcing thoughts and stimulating conversations about the future. Helping to identify assumptions about the future that might require examination, testing and subsequent modification. Encouraging people to have regard to the positive possibilities and opportunities that tomorrow might hold, as well as the potential threats and disasters. Making more intelligent decisions today concerning the future by focusing the mind on the most important questions that must be resolved in order to formulate better policy. Inspiring people to ‘think outside the box’. Widening perspectives and increasing the number of options available for exercising more deliberate decision-making towards positive change. Preparing for, and managing change better by enhancing the capacity to learn. Making response times to actual future events much shorter and reactions more relevant. Fostering active participation in strategic thinking leading to decision-making. The adoption of futures methods into city planning offers a rigorous, comprehensive and integrated approach towards urban stewardship, relying more on intuition, participation and adaptability (Ratcliffe, 2002). Most excitingly, a futures approach can constitute an effective platform for collaborative planning. A collaborative futures process helps to develop successful solutions and ensures that the ownership of those solutions is embedded in the community so that they have a greater chance of implementation (CitiesPLUS, 2004). It also enables the development of preferred visions of urban futures through mobilisation – bringing together and facilitating the networking of key stakeholders and sources of knowledge (FOREN, 2001). A comparison of traditional planning versus futures approach is shown in Table 1. 28
Traditional Planning Futures Approach Perspective Partial, ‘everything else being equal’ Overall, ‘nothing else being equal’ Variables Quantitative, objective, known Qualitative, subjective, hidden Relationship Statistical, stable structures Dynamic, emerging structures Explanation The past explains the present The future is the raison d’etre of the present. Picture of Future Simple and certain Multiple and uncertain Method Deterministic and quantitative Qualitative, behavioural and models stochastic models Attitude to the Passive or adaptive (the future Active and creative (the future is future will be) shaped) Table 1: Traditional planning versus futures approach (Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003). 2.2 Methodology of the study The process of imagineering the future of cities and regions can be described in three main phases: 1. Strategic Thinking 2. Strategic Planning 3. Strategic Implementation This study focuses on the Strategic Thinking Phase, which can also be called the Visioning Phase. The overall methodology for this project was based on the Prospective Through Scenarios process, which is a systematic, rigorous futures methodology that enables the exploration of possible future alternatives and the identification of preferred future options. The methodology has successfully been applied in a number of projects carried out by the Futures Academy 3 over recent years. This section discusses the details of the methodological framework for this study. First the overall futures approach – Prospective Through Scenarios Process - is discussed in detail. Then the main methods and techniques, and the tasks they were used to complete, are presented. Finally, the issues related to the facilitation of collaborative stakeholders are considered. 3 Imagine Lincoln 2020 (2005), Dublin 2020 Vision for the Dublin Chamber of Commerce (2004), The Bratislava Raca Prospective - Towards a Preferred Future (2004), Development of Future Scenarios for Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor (2003). 29
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
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Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
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Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
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Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
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wages and prices are kept in balanc
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20. Small business in Ireland is bi
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Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
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12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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