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scenarios would be framed; and a range of policy proposals and recommendations that should be implemented to prepare for future challenges and opportunities. 1.4 Project Participants For each gateway city, a broad range of stakeholders and decision-makers was identified and invited to participate in the project. Amongst the targeted sectors were: local and regional government; built environment professionals (architects, planners and engineers); business community (chambers of commerce, major employers and developers); community groups; politicians; media; education; health; justice; and religion and the arts. Also, a number of stakeholders and policy makers from a variety of backgrounds and institutions at the national level were invited to be involved in the study. The full list of people who contributed to the project is to be found in Appendix 1. 26
2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Futures Approach All that is certain about the future of the Irish gateways is that they will change and these changes will be rapid, vast and unpredictable. In an environment of growing complexity, heightened uncertainty and with a quickening pace of change, planners and decision-makers face a complicated and difficult task of preparing for what the future may bring. For some time, it has been recognised that the prevailing planning approach towards the future is inadequate and a slow shift towards new ways of thinking and acting about the future of cities has been observed. Various criticisms that have been levelled at prevailing planning practice which include. Ineffective mechanisms to deal with the complexity and uncertainty of urban environments. Widespread short-term orientation of planning. Inadequacy of the ‘predict and provide’ model, which reinforces the present conditions and makes it more difficult to consider alternative future options. Lack of a comprehensive integration of physical planning with economic and social development. Limited collaboration of stakeholders from different sectors. Paucity of real community participation. Failure to provide visionary and innovative solutions. Being reactive rather than proactive towards the future. The recognition of the failures of current planning practice has led to a search for and adoption of new and more imaginative future-oriented approaches. In Ireland, for example, futures methods have recently been used, in the Border, Midland and Western (BMW) Regional Foresight exercise and by the Athlone Institute of Technology. Also, over the past few years, The Futures Academy, DIT, has been promoting the use of futures methods in the urban and regional planning field, of which this project is the latest instance. The futures approach used in this study is the ‘Prospective Through Scenarios Process’, developed by The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology. This process has been based on concepts and assumptions from a much larger field of inquiry - futures studies. Futures studies is a discipline that aims “to discover or invent, examine and evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures” (Bell, 2003). Over the past 40 years or so, futures studies has developed in both breadth and depth. It is now a globally–distributed meta-discipline which is taught in a number of universities and which increasingly has the capability to contribute to corporate strategies, policy debates, urban planning, social innovations and the like. In essence, Futures Studies enables the forward view. That is, it provides interpretative or propositional knowledge about the future, up-dates this regularly, assesses the quality of emerging understandings and uses them for a range of socially-useful purposes. The most crucial 27
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
Page 68 and 69: today. The future was a given, and
Page 70 and 71: 5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
Page 72 and 73: Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
Page 74 and 75: 14. This study by The Futures Acade
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5. As a direct corollary, creativit
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wages and prices are kept in balanc
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20. Small business in Ireland is bi
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Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
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12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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146
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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