TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

SCENARIO 3: I met the enemy, it’s us! (National scenario: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ FÉIN)
Headline Article in the Carlingford Chronicle reporting on the demise of the BMW region…, 29 th
October 2030.
Headline: ‘BMW in need! Region in need of most support and intervention’
Failure of the Northern Ireland peace process in 2010 sparked a major resurgence in terrorist
activity, reaffirming the significance of the north–south border. Security emerged as the highest
social priority with policing on alert and commonplace. Belfast quickly became isolated from the
rest of the island, as the Irish Government retracted its involvement in the Northern political
process. Feelings of mistrust, fear and resentment developed within society with little or no
cross-border relations. Growth and development is primarily confined within the Republic as
economic links between Dundalk and Belfast are severed. As foreign investment dried up after
2012 it has left a high percentage of the population unemployed and desolate.
Major job losses following the closure of Dundalk’s ABB’s manufacturing plant are a bitter blow
to a region that has seen a steady decline in its economic fortunes over the past decade. This
was followed by a serious downturn in farming, which was traditionally the big employer in rural
areas. By 2016 a number of smaller scale production plants had followed suit, leaving local
politicians and business people fearing the worst for the local economy. By 2020 the north East
region has been thrown into turmoil.
While vast outward expansion from Dublin between 2010 and 2020 endowed Dundalk with an
abundance of human resources, particularly highly skilled immigrant workers, failure to develop
a strong integrated immigration policy resulted in ethnic marginalisation, as immigrant ghettos
mushroomed around the town. Modest attention was paid to emerging social issues, and as a
result, the quality of life was poor. Unemployment was high, and a strong dependence on
welfare began to emerge. Safety on the streets was non-existent and Dundalk, in particular, had
entered a time of deprivation. While political and economic regionalism over the previous two
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For many, emigration was the
only option. By 2030 population
growth reaches an all time low,
as the majority of the youthful
and educated population
migrate southwards. With less
than 40,000 people, the
knowledge drain of graduates
out of the region has had severe
economic and social impacts.