TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK
SCENARIO 1: Fools of fortune (National scenario: THE SOW OF LIBERTY)
Dundalk in 2030 has asserted itself as an important economic player and one of Ireland’s fastest
growing cities. In the highly competitive, but volatile economic corridor, Dundalk, having
become an autonomous and self sustaining growth centre and the third largest Eastern corridor
city after Belfast and Dublin, is the centre of industrial activity and energy production. The city
regions of Dublin, Belfast and Dundalk have become the most powerful units of governance in
the country. Over the previous decade Dundalk, in particular, has managed to establish a strong
portfolio of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and indigenous industries capable of significant
future growth. As a local government centre and economic hub for County Louth, Dundalk’s
main economic activities comprise of electronics and tourism. Population has grown from 34,000
in 2007 to 70,000 people by 2030 exacerbating transport problems as Dundalk’s infrastructure
struggles to cope with increased demand. Gridlock in the city centre has become commonplace.
The gap between rich and poor has been exacerbated along the corridor and isolation of
prosperity along the East coast of the country served only to intensify the East-West divide.
Social costs and welfare demands, in general, are high as were third level educational fees,
following the re-privatisation of higher education in 2012.
Looking back olitical unification and economic integration continued to dominate policy agendas
in the BMW region up to 2010. The climate of political stability led to the joining of Newry and
Dundalk as a twin ‘mini-metropolis’ in 2012, with a regional catchment area of almost a quarter
of a million people. By 2014 the negative “border town” image of Dundalk had already changed
for the better due to the success of the Peace process. Dominating multi-nationals set seed and
mushroomed in clusters around the two urban centres, as Dundalk’s prime location offered cost
and lifestyle advantages to companies and employees. Both Dundalk and Newry absorbed a
significant increase in population over the next few years, mostly owing to the mass exodus
from Dublin, now cited as the ‘Dark Edge of Ireland’. But by 2015 Irish competitiveness was
confronted with major challenges, as further EU integration and the rising tide of emerging
markets to the East, offered attractive alternatives for investment. Establishing Dundalk as a
major education centre was crucial in transforming the cultural and social life of the town.
Dundalk’s labour market witnessed growth of over 3.2 percent per annum over the past decade,
with Eastern European immigrants filling most of the jobs. However, from 2020 onwards, in a
reversal of the Ireland’s immigrant history, the region witnessed a mass exodus of Polish due to
Poland’s booming economy. Over the next few years the constant flow of immigrants to the
region slowed to a trickle, and by 2023 had dried up altogether. Unemployment rates in 2025
were modest at 3.5%, as the problem was more concentrated within the major metropolitan
centres such as Dublin and Belfast, but the increasing lack of skilled labour is already starting to
have an affect on the region’s economic output.
While the city had high hopes, at the turn of the century, of becoming a leader in sustainable
development, insufficient attention had been given to environmental degradation and increasing
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