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Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “The Sow of Liberty” This scenario pictures a world of expanding globalisation and growing libertarianism that encroaches upon steady economic growth, the further opening-up of markets and rapid technological advances. The role of national governments diminishes while an increasing emphasis on international collaboration emerges, largely aiming to facilitate global competition and the enhancement of market efficiency. Developed nations are fragmented into many differentiated and competing sub-national regions and interests. The accent overall is on the individual, and the prime motivation is materialistic. Europe, in this scenario, has largely been shaped by constant economic growth driven by continuing processes of globalisation, privatisation and the liberalisation of key markets, including technology, energy, air transport, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. The EU has been enlarged by the accession of new states, including Turkey. European societies are more fragmented than ever, and people are focused on their immediate associates and families. Ireland is a large player at the world stage, specialising in highly advanced areas of science and technology. The Eastern region of Ireland is home to some of the wealthiest cities in Europe. The quasi-autonomous city regions, led by elected mayors, specialise in medical research and nano-technology. The Western regions are dominated by a commercialised heritage industry. “Wild Cats of Equality” In this scenario, the future is underpinned by a system of shared values, an equitable distribution of opportunity and a desire for sustainable development. A worldwide metamorphosis is taking place with commercial and institutional renewal accelerating across the developed world, with policy-making and decision-taking becoming increasingly delegated and expert. The overall focus is on collective, collaborative and consensual actions, shaped by commonly held attitudes and aspirations. The EU holds a strong framework for public policy pursuing sustainable development. Economic growth is sustained due to legal certainties and market transparency. A sustainable and high quality of life is enjoyed by all, and the integration of Europe has dramatically altered the global political and economic landscape. Irish society enjoys a good standard of living, even though there is a greater policy intervention in both civic affairs and the market. There has been a strong growth of services and high-tech industries offering a low environmental impact and high social value, while agriculture and resource intensive sectors have declined. Irish society is divided between two strands living side by side: the ‘knowledge’ society of towns and cities and the ‘wisdom’ society of rural areas. 16
“The Fragility of Mé Féin” In this scenario, the world is shaped by a socio-political backlash against the forces of change leading to regressive developments in institutions, a failure of cohesion among the wealthy nations and a dislocation in developed economies. The desire to preserve personal independence within a distinctive national identity prevails. Patriotism dictates that political power remains within the nation state in an increasingly fragmented world. The main emphasis is placed on continuance of individual freedom, protected by state security, and a consciousness of cultural difference. Overall, the world moves towards greater instability. For Europe it is a turbulent and insecure world that has been primarily shaped by long periods of global economic instability, technological development and international competition. Europeans perceive the world beyond their border as fearsome and are highly anxious about the future. Economic integration is virtually abandoned and the EU is collapsing into a loose arrangement of separate treaties and bilateral agreements. The Irish people value freedom to do as they choose, but within the context of closed and independent Ireland. Business is focused mainly on domestic markets, the UK, and to a lesser extent Western Europe. Dublin, although one of the most expensive cities in the world and highly divided between rich and poor, remains the economic engine of Ireland. People are proud to be Irish and much emphasis is placed on the preservation of culture and heritage. The attitudes of personal responsibility develop, while government has been decreasing its role in the provision of healthcare, education and other social services. The Emerging Territorial Future The most plausible future spatial model of Ireland will be based on a single city-region serving the entire country. It is likely that such a city will be located on the East coast and would be initially based on the pre-existing Dublin-Belfast Corridor. This future is likely to develop as political and economic integration between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland progresses. Additionally, it is reinforced by the weak urban structure of the island outside the Dublin-Belfast Corridor, the existing strength of the Greater Dublin Area and proximity to the UK and Europe. Out of three national spatial options, the Eastern Corridor (The Sow of Liberty), the Atlantic Gateway (Wild Cats of Equality) and Urban Sprawl (The Fragility of Mé Féin), the Eastern Corridor is a most likely and robust option. The development of the Atlantic Corridor requires strong policy and high levels of investment and is not robust at times of economic uncertainty, while an Urban Sprawl pattern of development is vulnerable in an energy shortage/high prices situation and is environmentally unsustainable. Development of the Eastern conurbation would mean that a continued policy based on the radial model as exemplified by the current national road and rail infrastructure strategies, may be ill-conceived. Development of cross-transverse links between the East and the West would be a more viable and future-proof option. There are a number of risks associated with current national planning policy. There is a risk that continued policy support for the development of a counterweight to Dublin may not be 17
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
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today. The future was a given, and
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5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
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Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
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14. This study by The Futures Acade
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5. As a direct corollary, creativit
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wages and prices are kept in balanc
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20. Small business in Ireland is bi
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Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
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12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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