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of the time, leaving Ireland without a spatial policy for the country until 2002. This led to the dispersal of new investment into rural areas. As pressures on the natural environment increased significantly during the era of rapid economic growth during the 1990s, planning professionals started to adopt the principles of sustainable development in order to reduce the impact on the environment. The publication of the National Spatial Strategy in 2002 provided a spatial development framework for Ireland. One of the most important provisions was the designation of Gateways and Hubs, into which new investment is to be directed. This was aimed at achieving balanced regional development. The current urban structure in Ireland is dominated by the Greater Dublin Area, where 40% of Irish population resides. The urban hierarchy of the rest of the country is relatively weak, particularly in the West and North-West. Significant growth of Dublin’s population in recent years and an under-supply of affordable housing led to the creation of an extensive commuter belt. This resulted in greater pressure on existing transport infrastructure caused by a massive increase in private car use, which was the result of a mismatch between the location of new housing, places of employment and public transportation infrastructure. The peace process in Northern Ireland in the 1990s that has led to a significant growth in trade across the border, and the improved transport infrastructure on both sides of the border has facilitated the growth in linkages between Dublin and Belfast and the development of an economic corridor on the East coast. As a response to the economic dominance of the East coast, policy makers have designated an ‘Atlantic Corridor’, linking the cities of the South and West, to provide a counterbalance to the Greater Dublin Area. However, whether this corridor generates the necessary amount of linkages between these cities remains to be seen. People For the population to double by 2030, the country’s population would have to grow by 3 per cent per annum. However, the most rapid annual growth that has been achieved to date has been 1.6 per cent per annum. Therefore, it would be unrealistic to expect that the population of Ireland could double by 2030. It is expected that growth of the Irish population will continue into long-term future. Given the nine billion predicted for the world population by 2050, it is evitable that countries like Ireland will be subjected to ever-increasing in-migration pressures. Doubling of the population is possible at the gateway level. However, it will be rather difficult considering the modest population growth of the gateways in the period between 2002 and 2006. Only two gateways, Galway and Letterkenny, which are not in Dublin’s sphere of influence, achieved a growth rate higher than the State’s average. Projection of the existing trends into the future shows that population concentration in the East coast will continue, unless the implementation of government policy will change the current trends. However, in the case of lack of such implementation and an economic slowdown, it can be assumed that concentration of population in the GDA will continue at an even higher rate. 14
Value systems of societies can be described by two dimensions: (1) traditional/secular- rational and (2) survival/self-expression values. As nations develop economically their value systems become more secular-rational and more emphasis is placed on self- expression. At present, Irish society has a quite unique combination of fairly strong traditional values with well developed self-expression values. As the period of cultural modernisation progresses, the values of Irish people will move away from those that emphasise traditional centralised control and concern for economic betterment towards values based on rationality and a concern for personal self-development and self-expression. This shift in value systems will create potential conflicts between rural-based Western regions seeking to preserve the status quo and urban-based Eastern regions seeking a more autonomous, responsive, rational and effective mode of politics and governance. Potential Global population will increase significantly during the coming decades. An adequate strategic policy focus on a robust and accelerating external demographic pressure would create the possibility of rectifying Ireland’s current low population density. This in turn would assist in sustaining economic growth. Driving Forces of Change The exploration of the future of the gateways in Ireland is underpinned by a recognition that the 21 st century is a period of rapid change in which new discoveries, philosophies and technologies play an ever more prominent part in shaping social, economic and spatial development. The future will be shaped by a number of critical challenges that can be summarised under these headings: “too many people”; “not enough resources”; “it takes time”; “there will be new technologies”; “what’s the risk?”; “redefining the enemy”; “economics are complex”; “détente with dilemma”; “running the show”; and “there will be surprises”. The changes will take place in all areas of life: demography, economy, governance, environment, society and technology and they will affect global, national and local futures. No single driver will dominate, but each driver will have varying impacts at different times and different locations. The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases they will work against each other. Scenario Logics The alternative scenarios for the future of Ireland are built around nine scenario logics: globalisation, European cohesion, Irish stability, values, people, spatial patterns, competitiveness, sustainability and learning. In each scenario these logics play out differently. 15
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 10 and 11: TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64: population and a relatively young s
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PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
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today. The future was a given, and
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5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
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Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
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14. This study by The Futures Acade
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5. As a direct corollary, creativit
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wages and prices are kept in balanc
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20. Small business in Ireland is bi
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Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
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12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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