TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

ail and road connections between Dublin and Belfast. In addition, Waterford/Wexford is able to
increasingly capture growth in sea trade. The result is that none of the Gateway cities other
than Dublin and Belfast are able to achieve sufficient critical mass to attract significant
economic development.
Atlantic Gateway (Wild Cats of Equality)
In this scenario the Atlantic Gateway concept of achieving critical mass by combining the cities
of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford has achieved success and is able to provide a
counterweight to the Greater Dublin Area. This is assisted by increasing congestion in the GDA
and a disappointing economic integration between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Improved
infrastructure, including rail and road connections between the cities (Western Rail Corridor,
Atlantic Corridor), has succeeded in reducing actual and perceived distances between the
Gateway cities. Shannon Airport has successfully developed its strategic advantage of capacity
for long haul flights.
Urban Sprawl (The Fragility of Mé Féin)
In this scenario urban sprawl continues unabated. This is encouraged by increased congestion in
the Greater Dublin Area forcing more and more people to live at greater distances from the city
centre although commuting times are reduced by the ‘edge city’ of dispersed employment
nodes, such as City West/Naas Corridor, Cherrywood/Bray and Dublin Airport/Swords. The
pattern of sprawl is further encouraged by policies to allow one-off housing particularly in the
West of Ireland. This has resulted in a decline of a number of small villages, slow growth of
towns and a resulting weak urban structure. Energy consumption rates are out of line with
targets based on climate change policies.
8.3 Risks Associated with the Current Policies
Examination of external uncertainties suggests that any national spatial policy based on the
Eastern Corridor vision, would be less vulnerable to uncertain factors in the future and more
robust as a consequence, than possible alternative models such as Atlantic Corridor or Urban
Sprawl. In relation to the Atlantic Corridor model, for example, it is likely that in a situation of
economic decline it may be vulnerable as it is essentially a policy that requires strong public
investment. Equally, the Urban Sprawl model (continued low density housing, edge city
development patterns and unabated rural one-off housing) is vulnerable if energy shortages
make low density lifestyles prohibitively expensive in the future.
What does the East Corridor City model mean for the eight gateway cities outside Dublin? Apart
from Dundalk and Waterford (which would operate as urban centres within the East Corridor), a
continued policy based on the radial model as exemplified in the current national road and rail
infrastructure plans for example, may be ill conceived. A better approach might be to develop
132