TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

PART III: Prospective and Recommendations
8 THE EMERGING TERRITORIAL FUTURE
8.1 Eastern Corridor – the Trend Scenario
Ireland has a population size that is equivalent to that of one global city at most. It should,
therefore, not come as a surprise that the most plausible future spatial model of Ireland will be
based on a single city serving the entire island. Such a city is likely to be located in the north
Eastern quadrant of the country and would be based initially on the Dublin-Belfast Metropolis
but could ultimately extend to a continuous linear urban form along the entire Eastern
seaboard. Ireland would thus become a city-state, with the Eastern corridor forming an
urbanised corridor ultimately stretching from Waterford and Rosslare to Belfast. It could be
called the Eastern Corridor.
Compelling drivers of change can be identified that could steer us towards such a future. These
key drivers include for example: (a) the political and economic integration of the two parts of
Ireland, (b) the weak urban structure outside the Dublin-Belfast conurbation, and (c) the
economic strength of the Greater Dublin Area with availability of infrastructure and proximity to
the UK and Europe. This vision of a future Ireland is a change from the radial model that has
been the dominant pattern over the last 40 years. This radial model, which focused on Dublin,
could change to a linear structure based on the dynamics of the Dublin-Belfast corridor. It is also
a radical change from the current policy ideal expressed in the NSS. 6
8.2 Testing the Spatial Options
As the population of Ireland grows, it will be heavily influenced by physical and environmental
factors – such as the presence of mountains, lakes, bogs or very poorly drained soils. The
urbanisation of an expanding population might be directed by such patterns to form distinctive
patterns: continuous along much of the East and forming discrete and self contained individual
pockets along the West. Three possible spatial scenarios that correspond to the general national
scenarios have been loosely identified.
East-West Divide (The Sow of Liberty)
In this scenario the development of the Dublin Belfast corridor will increase momentum in terms
of urban growth and population concentration aided by the increased political, economic and
cultural integration between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Increases in infrastructure
capacity (Dublin Airport, relocated Dublin Port) will drive this process coupled with improved
6 It is perhaps interesting to note that the NSS did not look at the Dublin-Belfast corridor in the way that
this study seems to conclude it as a compelling driving force in Irish spatial development. The reason for
this may be quite simply that Northern Ireland, while it was considered in the preparation of the NSS, did
not form part of he NSS itself. Belfast therefore escaped gateway city designation.
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