TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ FÉIN
“Social reaction to over rapid change”
This scenario assumes there will be a socio-political
backlash against the forces of change leading to regressive
developments in institutions, a failure of cohesion among
the wealthy nations of the world and a dislocation in
developed economies. The scenario is built upon the desire
to preserve personal independence within a distinctive
national identity. Patriotism dictates that political power
remains with the nation state in an increasingly fragmented
world. Most weight is attached to the furtherance of
individual freedom, protected by state security, and
conscious of cultural difference. But overall, the world
moves towards greater instability.
Global
It is a “fortress world” in 2030 where the global market boom remains highly concentrated.
Fewer than two dozen developing nations benefit to any significant degree from global private
investment, while in more than seventy countries incomes are lower than they were in 2000.
Islands of prosperity co-exist within an ocean of poverty and frustration.
Economic stagnation spreads as wealthy enclaves devote ever more resources to maintaining
security and stability. Inevitably, there is a growing conflict between rich and poor, with a
future threat of escalating violence and social disorder. Coupled, with this, a rising tide of
illegal immigration washes around the world. Furthermore, the dark side of capitalism is all
too evident in the sweatshops and horrendous pollution of industrialising Asia, and in the
expanding popularity of gated communities in the United States.
At first glance, however, this world in 2030 looks much like the world of the 2000’s, except
perhaps, that in Ireland Celtic Tiger has given way to Celtic Sloth. The business focus is on
growth and financial returns; and societies in general, whether East or West, North or South,
emphasise commercial opportunities and the global competitive challenge. Sustainable
development is acknowledged to be important, but not enough to warrant top-priority. Indeed,
from 2010 to 2020 improvements in such areas as local air quality, solid waste management,
clean water, alternative energy production and environmental education led to a perception
that the environment was in much better shape than it was in the early 2000’s. At global level,
however, there was a different picture. Greenhouse gases had risen alarmingly, and since 2020
there has been a growing awareness and increased evidence that the darkest predictions about
global warming are much nearer to the truth than the more sanguine ones.
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