TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents 10 List of Tables 12 List of Figures 12 Executive Summary 13 PART I: Introduction, Methodology and Context 23 1 Introduction 23 1.1 Project Aim and Objectives 23 1.2 Scope 24 1.3 Outcomes 25 1.4 Project Participants 26 2 Methodology 27 2.1 The Need for a Futures Approach 27 2.2 Methodology of the Study 29 2.2.1 Prospective Through Scenarios Process 30 2.2.2 Methods and Techniques 36 2.2.3 The Facilitation of Collaborative Stakeholders 38 3 Changing Ireland – the Context 39 3.1 Places 39 3.1.1 Space and Economy 39 3.1.2 Evolution of Irish Spatial and Land-Use Policy 41 3.1.3 Current Spatial Trends in the EU and Ireland 45 3.2 People 49 3.2.1 Doubling of the Population 49 3.2.2 Dublin and the Gateways – Issues of Scale 52 3.2.3 Values and Society 55 3.3 Potential 62 PART II: Exploring the Future 67 4 The Strategic Question 67 5 Driving Forces of Change 67 5.1 21 st Century Challenges 67 5.2 Driving Forces of Change, Issues and Trends 70 6 Scenario Logics 100 10
7 Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 100 The Sow of Liberty 100 Wild Cats of Equality 110 The Fragility of Mé Féin 120 PART III: Prospective and Recommendations 131 8 The Emerging Territorial Future 131 8.1 Eastern Corridor – the Trend Scenario 131 8.2 Testing the Spatial Options 131 8.3 Risks Associated with the Current Policies 132 8.4 Implications for the Gateways 134 9 Preparing Ireland for Possible Alternative Futures 136 9.1 Policy Testing 136 9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendations 138 10 Conclusion 141 PART IV: The Future of Gateways 149 A Cork 150 B Dundalk 161 C Galway 169 D Letterkenny 180 E Limerick 190 F Midlands 197 G Sligo 207 H Waterford 215 References 222 Appendices 227 11
Page 1: TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
Page 4 and 5: The Urban Forum is an initiative of
Page 6 and 7: F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
Page 8 and 9: The most profound shift that will o
Page 12 and 13: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
Page 14 and 15: of the time, leaving Ireland withou
Page 16 and 17: Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
Page 18 and 19: successful, as planning policies th
Page 20 and 21: social equity, tolerance and multic
Page 23 and 24: PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
Page 25 and 26: 1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
Page 27 and 28: 2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
Page 29 and 30: Traditional Planning Futures Approa
Page 31 and 32: In this study, the driving forces o
Page 33 and 34: D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
Page 35 and 36: Indeed, the central challenge of th
Page 37 and 38: epresenting different sectors, orga
Page 39 and 40: 3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
Page 41 and 42: transport connections, Ireland as a
Page 43 and 44: the provisions of the DTS were not
Page 45 and 46: In addition to these key objectives
Page 47 and 48: an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62:
4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
Page 63 and 64:
population and a relatively young s
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PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
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today. The future was a given, and
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5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
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Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
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14. This study by The Futures Acade
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5. As a direct corollary, creativit
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wages and prices are kept in balanc
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20. Small business in Ireland is bi
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Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
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12. While the NDP is committed to c
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Global Context The ten most signifi
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3. By international standards the a
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15. The intensification of agricult
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7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
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sector up the value chain; promote
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6. The field of synthetic biology w
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9. With the onset of e-governance,
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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the d
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world leader in software solutions
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In the context of health, it is unw
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High land prices and generally infl
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Similarly, little thought is given
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SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
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and, as a result, substantial progr
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than two thirds of all weddings are
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increased the power of local govern
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had to submit an annual recycling p
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SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
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Preoccupied with security issues, p
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Places Ireland is one of few Europe
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But all has not been good news. To
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PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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130
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ail and road connections between Du
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Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
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Another important point of attentio
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9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
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Built and Natural Environment High
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A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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144
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146
Page 148 and 149:
148
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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226
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
Page 230 and 231:
Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
Page 232 and 233:
Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

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