TWICE THE SIZE - DIT Update - Dublin Institute of Technology

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5 SCENARIO LOGICS Analysis of the driving forces of change, trends and issues in respect to the degree of their uncertainty and level of impact allowed us to identify nine scenario logics, around which the scenarios are structured. The scenario logics around which the scenarios present in the next section are organised are depicted in Figure 12. 6 SCENARIOS FOR IRELAND IN 2030 SCENARIO 1: THE SOW OF LIBERTY Globalisation European Cohesion Irish Stability Values People Spatial patterns Competitiveness Sustainability Learning Figure 12: Scenario logics. “Market forces on the march” This scenario is based on expanding globalisation and growing libertarianism. It assumes steady economic growth, the further opening-up of markets and rapid technological advances. There is a diminishing role for national government, and a growing emphasis upon international collaboration, largely aimed at facilitating global competition and enhancing market efficiency. Social and government institutions, however, generally are weakened at both national and international level. Developed nations are fragmented into many differentiated and competing sub-national regions and interests. The accent overall is on the individual, and the prime motivation materialistic. 100
Global It is a “market world” in 2030, where the American model of capitalism has finally achieved global dominance, having weathered the international financial maelstrom of 2009 and the storms of ‘Chindian’ protectionism and market-dumping during the period 2010 to 2020. An extended economic boom during the 2020’s has shown that free market policies, corporate restructuring and enlightened entrepreneurship offer a paradigm for growth leading to increased global market integration, unprecedented technological innovation, pressure for independence of thought and action, and rising standards of literacy in most parts of the world. Free market reforms have moved governments everywhere to downsize, deregulate and privatise. The pace of innovation breeds new opportunities at astonishing speed. The thesis throughout is: let markets work, turn loose the private sector, breakdown the barriers to free trade, and all will be well. Sooner or later, rapid economic growth and increasing prosperity will happen or ‘trickle down’ in virtually every region of the earth. The rising tide floats all boats. In this world of ‘Liberty’ diverse players join-in ad hoc alliances to solve social and environmental problems in the most pragmatic way possible. The keynote of this scenario is ‘dynamic reciprocity’ – giving and taking in a climate that is closely attuned to the opportunities of the moment whilst, at the same time, alert to ways of incorporating long-term values into strategies for commercial success. This is a world of social and technological innovations, experimentation, rapid adaptation, much voluntary interconnectedness, fierce competition, and a powerful, ever-changing global market. Transparency in everything is high, and the widespread availability of information allows free market entry to new actors. The growing connectivity of national economies and transnational business, however, does not occur smoothly. Multiple players with varying values and differing objectives vie for power and position in a global milieu of swiftly shifting, fluid alliances. What role environmental regulations and social welfare should play is a constant source of dispute. The arguments are intensified by the increased interest of media in reporting on environmental degradation and social inequity, especially the growing gap between rich and poor countries. Accelerating migration from the poorer parts of less developed countries and regions, moreover, is seen as a serious threat by many in the more developed regions of the world. Europe For Europe, this is a world that has witnessed the “triumph of trade over war”. Europe in 2030 has largely been shaped by constant economic growth driven by the continuing processes of globalisation, privatisation and the liberalisation of key markets, including technology, energy, air transport, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. E-commerce has become embedded in the fabric of European business, with explosive developments in mobile communications, shortrange wireless, digital intelligence, and voice and language technologies. Europe has become a 101
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TWICE THE SIZE? IMAGINEERING THE FU
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The Urban Forum is an initiative of
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F O R E W O R D, by Professor John
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The most profound shift that will o
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents
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LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Traditional
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of the time, leaving Ireland withou
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Scenarios for Ireland in 2030 “Th
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successful, as planning policies th
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social equity, tolerance and multic
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PART I: Introduction, Methodology a
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1.3 Outcomes Figure 1: National Spa
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2 METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Need for a Fu
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Traditional Planning Futures Approa
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In this study, the driving forces o
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D i a g n o s i s P r o g n o s i s
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Indeed, the central challenge of th
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epresenting different sectors, orga
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3 CHANGING IRELAND - THE CONTEXT
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transport connections, Ireland as a
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the provisions of the DTS were not
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In addition to these key objectives
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an ad-hoc manner. In particular, th
Page 49 and 50: 3.2 People The study’s point of d
Page 51 and 52: Gateway City/Town 2002 Population 2
Page 53 and 54: Counties (…) Population Share of
Page 55 and 56: Gateway FUR Population Size Ranking
Page 57 and 58: On the basis of the survey, Ingleha
Page 59 and 60: Political implications Since the fo
Page 61 and 62: 4. Public Private Partnerships [PPP
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Page 65: PART II EXPLORING THE FUTURE 65
Page 68 and 69: today. The future was a given, and
Page 70 and 71: 5.2 Driving forces of change, issue
Page 72 and 73: Prospects for Ireland Changes in th
Page 74 and 75: 14. This study by The Futures Acade
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Page 80 and 81: 20. Small business in Ireland is bi
Page 82 and 83: Prospects for Ireland In so many wa
Page 84 and 85: 12. While the NDP is committed to c
Page 86 and 87: Global Context The ten most signifi
Page 88 and 89: 3. By international standards the a
Page 90 and 91: 15. The intensification of agricult
Page 92 and 93: 7. Demands for greater scrutiny, tr
Page 94 and 95: sector up the value chain; promote
Page 96 and 97: 6. The field of synthetic biology w
Page 98 and 99: 9. With the onset of e-governance,
Page 102 and 103: world leader in software solutions
Page 104 and 105: In the context of health, it is unw
Page 106 and 107: High land prices and generally infl
Page 108 and 109: Similarly, little thought is given
Page 110 and 111: SCENARIO 2: WILD CATS OF EQUALITY
Page 112 and 113: and, as a result, substantial progr
Page 114 and 115: than two thirds of all weddings are
Page 116 and 117: increased the power of local govern
Page 118 and 119: had to submit an annual recycling p
Page 120 and 121: SCENARIO 3: THE FRAGILITY OF MÉ F
Page 122 and 123: Preoccupied with security issues, p
Page 124 and 125: Places Ireland is one of few Europe
Page 126 and 127: But all has not been good news. To
Page 128 and 129: PROSPECTS Ireland takes a lead in
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Page 132 and 133: ail and road connections between Du
Page 134 and 135: Box 2 - The Gateways Population Sto
Page 136 and 137: Another important point of attentio
Page 138 and 139: 9.2 Policy Actions and Recommendati
Page 140 and 141: Built and Natural Environment High
Page 142 and 143: A radical rethinking of the Nationa
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A. CORK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF CHAN
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campaign put Cork on the global map
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SCENARIO 2: Nero (National scenario
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palpable shift in Cork from the “
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in the knowledge economy and as a
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But by 2020 when climatic change ha
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DUNDALK SCENAR
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SCENARIO 2: The Pearl of the East (
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centres and high quality rural hint
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decades had facilitated the emergen
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR GALWAY SCENARI
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Also, tourism and heritage is a ver
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Other features of the campus includ
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SCENARIO 3: The Fairest County of t
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Re: the fairest county of them all
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D. LETTERKENNY MAIN DRIVING FORCES
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Letterkenny is a relatively late bl
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implementation of the Derry Donegal
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of this success by restoring compet
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process, which they believe will br
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E. LIMERICK MAIN DRIVING FORCES OF
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new city treatment works. Over the
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Following the elimination of the co
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The completion of the Orbital route
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR MIDLANDS SCENA
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of the regional government led by a
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In fact, NSS II designated most of
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SCENARIO 3: And the Winner is … (
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esearch centre to investigate a pos
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR SLIGO SCENARIO
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SCENARIO 2: Healthy, Wealthy and Wi
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egion, facilitated by the REPS Orga
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The region’s economy has also bee
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FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR WATERFORD SCEN
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SCENARIO 2: The ‘Super-Rural’ R
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SCENARIO 3: A Tale of Two Cities (N
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References: Bannon, M. (1989) Plann
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Serra, J. (2001) Territorial Foresi
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Conor Healy Cork Chamber of Commerc
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Martina Moloney Louth County Manage
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Appendix 2 LIST OF WORKSHOPS NATION
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