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Helena National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Northern Region (R1) divided into six overall pathways (Table 3). Each of the pathways is categorized in terms of functionality; either Functioning Appropriately (FA), Functioning at Risk (FAR), or Functioning at Unacceptable Risk (FUR). The final rating is based on a suite of metrics which are either (1) quantitative metrics of collected field data or GIS driven attributes (e.g. road density) or (2) qualitative descriptions based on field reviews, professional judgment, etc. The composite watershed sensitivity based on the baseline analysis is depicted in Figure 3. Based on these parameters, the Helena National Forest has three subwatersheds rated as FA, ten rated as FAR and five rated as FUR. These rating is applied to only those subwatersheds where there are known populations of bull trout. Evaluation of those watersheds that could have potential for bull trout habitat but do not currently have viable populations were not included in this analysis. Exposure Summer maximum air temperature predictions were used as a surrogate for stream temperature because stream temperature data was not widely available. At the time of our analysis this was our best available dataset, in the future, it might be better to use mean summer temperature as better correlations have been found between air-water temperatures using the mean vs. max, even though these were very strongly correlated (Wenger et al. 2011a). Summer maximum air temperatures were predicted to increase by approximately 2 °C uniformly across the forest for the 2030-2059 predictive period and approximately 5 °C uniformly for the 2070-2099 predictive period. Consequently, it is predicted that not any one watershed will be more impacted by this change in summer maximum air temperature than another. However, we can develop conservation strategies based on current conditions in order to buffer more highly valued watersheds. Summer baseflow was considered as an exposure element, but not carried forward because Wenger’s (2011a) work showed temperature to be the key climate change variable related to bull trout habitat. Bull trout are likely sensitive to increase in winter high flows (Wenger 2011b), but this data is available at the reach level and time at this point does not allow for this kind of analysis. Winter 95 represents the number of days during winter that are among the highest 5% (respectively) of flows for the year. Winter 95 was used as the variable for winter high flows which would affect bull trout and brook trout, but not the spring spawning Westslope cutthroat trout. Watershed Vulnerability By overlaying the climate exposure data to the bull trout fisheries baseline data we see which habitat currently supporting bull trout populations is most likely to be adversely impacted by changes such as increased temperatures. Research has found bull trout currently inhabit the coldest available headwater streams which leaves little potential to shift to higher elevation habitats to avoid temperature increases (Wenger 2011a). Because the predicted temperature changes on the Helena National Forest are very uniform across all bull trout habitat, we assumed that it all has similar potential to be impacted by changes in climate. However, forest managers have the capability to maintain or increase the resiliency of watersheds that support the most valued bull trout fisheries. These areas can be selected as high priority for management activities. Because exposure to increased air temperatures is essentially uniform across the Forest, composite watershed vulnerability for bull trout habitat is equal to the watershed sensitivity analysis (Figure 3) or the current condition of the fisheries habitat. Incorporation of other climate change indicators may or may not change the overall potential vulnerability of these watersheds. 52 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
Helena National Forest Watershed Vulnerability Assessment, Northern Region (R1) Category Metric Subpopulation Characteristics within Subpopulation Watersheds Subpopulation size Growth and survival Life history diversity and isolation Persistence and genetic integrity Temperature Habitat - Water Quality Sediment Chemical contamination/nutrients Habitat - Access Physical barriers Substrate embeddedness in rearing areas Large woody debris Pool frequency and quality Habitat - Elements Large pools Off-channel habitat Refugia Average wetted width/maximum depth Ratio in scour pools in a reach Channel Condition and Dynamics Streambank condition Floodplain connectivity Change in peak/base flows Flow/Hydrology Increase in drainage network Road density and location Disturbance history Watershed Conditions Riparian conservation areas Disturbance regime Table 3. Matrix of Pathways and Indicators 53 Assessing the Vulnerability of Watersheds to Climate Change
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ASSESSSING THE VULNERABILITY OF WAT
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Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunniso
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerabili
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White River National Forest Watersh
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Coconino National Forest Watershed
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Sawtooth National Forest Watershed
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Shasta Trinity National Forest Wate
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Umatilla National Forest Watershed
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Ouachita National Forest Watershed
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Chequamegon-‐Nicolet National F
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Chugach National Forest Watershed V
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